The London School of Economics and Political Science Managing the Transition: An Analysis of Renewable Energy Policies in Resource-Rich Arab States with a Comparative Focus on the United Arab Emir- ates and Algeria Dennis Kumetat A thesis submitted to the Department of Geography and Envi- ronment of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, October 2012 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, pro- vided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 96 602 words. Statement of use of third party for editorial help I can confirm that my thesis was copy edited for conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Sarah El Richani. 2 Abstract This study analyses renewable energy policy in hydrocarbons-wealthy Arab states. In- tegrating elements of energy policy analysis, Middle Eastern studies and socio- technical governance theory, the thesis contributes to the understanding of renewable energy policy in this region as well as to the question of transferability of governance concepts. The thesis is structured in three parts. Part A discusses relevant research literature and presents the multi-level-perspective which structures the policy analysis. Additionally, the policy design model of transition management that closely interacts with the multi- level-perspective is presented. Then, the material content of renewable energy policies in hydrocarbons-wealthy Arab states is discussed and the research questions devel- oped. A methodological discussion concludes Part A. Part B applies the analytical categories developed to two case studies, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. The two countries represent the main types of Arab oil and gas wealthy states (large territorial and small city states) and two relevant regions (North Africa and the Gulf States). In addition to domestic renewable energy policy, the thesis also discusses the Desertec project, as well as Abu Dhabi’s Masdar Initiative as case studies within the larger country case studies. In the last part of this study, a cross-case analysis highlights common regional features and particularities in terms of renewable energy policy in the target region and formu- lates policy recommendations deriving from its critical use of the transition manage- ment approach. Lastly, it addresses theory-related outcomes of the case studies with regards to the transfer of Western policy design models to hydrocarbons-rich Arab states. 3 Acknowledgements This thesis could not have been written without the help of my friends, colleagues and academic advisors at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences and be- yond. I am most grateful to my first supervisor Dr Michael Mason and to Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, my second supervisor, who helped me through all the intricacies of thesis writing and their always friendly, highly competent advice in many sessions in- side and outside the office. I would also like to thank Prof David Held, Ian Sinclair and the entire LSE Kuwait Pro- gramme for Research on Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, as well as the German Protestant Merit Foundation ( Evangelisches Studienwerk Villigst ) for years of generous financial support. Furthermore, I am extremely grateful to various institutions for hosting me during my years of research. First and foremost I am grateful to Dr Nikolaus Supersberger and the energy research team at the German Wuppertal Institute for Climate, the Environment and Energy, from whose support I extremely benefitted, as well as Bernhard Brand, Dr Peter Viebahn and Kerstin Fritzsche. In addition, I would like to thank Dr Mohamed Raouf and Dr Oskar Ziemelis (then-) Gulf Research Center, as well as the Dubai School of Government, and Hannes Reinisch and Georgine Roodenrys for their support and hospitality during my trips to the UAE. I would also like to express my gratitude to my most hospitable friend and colleague LSE-alumnus Alexander Knipperts, (then-) Algiers and Professor Boudeghene Stambouli (Oran), without whom my Algeria research would have been virtually impossible. Lastly, I would like to thank all 94 interviewees in more than half a dozen countries who have devoted their time and attention to me and my research – it was a privilege to talk with you. I could not have written this thesis without the help of many close friends and family members. Thanks, among others to Joanna Setzer, Dr Florian Feigs, Justin Dargin, Jim Krane, Dr Christopher Davidson, Professor Tarif Khalidi, Dr Marcus Marktanner, Dr Wolf-Hagen von Angern and my entire family for their valuable advice and great sup- port! I dedicate this thesis to Sarah. 4 Table of Contents DECLARATION .............................................................................................................................................. 2 STATEMENT OF USE OF THIRD PARTY FOR EDITORIAL HELP ..................................................................................... 2 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 10 LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................... 13 LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................................... 15 PART A: INTRODUCTION, THEORY, TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY ASSESSMENT ......................................17 1. INTRODUCTION , RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND THESIS STRUCTURE ................................................................. 17 2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................. 30 2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 30 2.2. Renewable energy policy in hydrocarbons-rich Arab countries: relevant research literature 30 2.2.1. Middle Eastern Studies literature .................................................................................................32 2.2.2. Energy Studies ...............................................................................................................................36 2.2.3. Governance theories and concepts of socio-technical change .....................................................43 2.3. The multi-level perspective as an analytical tool ................................................................ 49 2.3.1. The MLP concept...........................................................................................................................49 2.3.2. Analytical dimensions of renewable energy policy for hydrocarbons-rich Arab states ................60 2.4. Policy design: the Transition Management approach ........................................................ 61 2.4.1. Policy design with the transition management approach .............................................................62 2.4.2. Transition Management and its application to hydrocarbons-rich Arab countries ......................69 2.5. Conclusion and outlook ...................................................................................................... 71 3. THE POLICY CONTEXT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY IN RESOURCE -RICH ARAB COUNTRIES UNDER THE MULTI - LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ...................................................................................................................................... 73 3.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 73 3.2. Landscape-level factors ...................................................................................................... 74 3.2.1. Political system .............................................................................................................................74 3.2.1.1. Algeria: “Bunker state” theory ...........................................................................................74 3.2.1.2. UAE: rentier states and globalizing monarchies .................................................................76 3.2.1.3. Personal patronage networks.............................................................................................77 3.2.1.4. Regime stability vs. democratisation: governance effects of renewable energy systems..79 3.2.2. Key transregional energy governance