St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update 3.0 Existing Service Area Conditions 3.1 Transit Service Area St. Johns County is located in Northeast Florida, bordered on the north by Duval County, on the south by Flagler County and on the west by the St. Johns River and Clay and Putnam Counties. To the east, St. Johns County is bounded by over 40 miles of beaches along the Atlantic Ocean. Just over one-third of St. Johns County’s population is concentrated in what is called the St. Augustine Urbanized Area, which includes the City of St. Augustine, City of St. Augustine Beach and surrounding areas. Another one-third of the population resides in the County’s northeast and northwest communities and is part of the Jacksonville Urbanized Area that extends from the north into St. Johns County. Interstate 95 (I-95) runs north-south through the center of the county and west of St. Augustine. US 1 is another principal north- south arterial that runs parallel to the Florida East Coast (FEC) rail line, a regional railroad providing rail service along the east coast of Florida. Figure 3.1 illustrates the study area. The Sunshine Bus Company provides public transportation services in St. Johns County, serving the St. Augustine Urbanized Area, as well as the Town of Hastings and Flagler Estates. 3.2 Population Profile St. Johns County’s population is the second largest within Northeast Florida and is currently the fastest growing county. Table 3.1 shows that the county’s population has increased 14.7% between years 2010 and 2014, a rate of increase faster than the region (7.1%) and faster than the State of Florida (5.8%). During this period, St. Johns County gained 27,880 residents. Also during this time, as shown in Table 3.2, households increased by about 8% and civilians employed in the labor force increased by 13%. The US Census Bureau defines the more densely populated areas of the county as Urban Areas. Table 3.3 shows that 72.5% of St. Johns County’s population lives within Census Urban Areas. Between 2010 and 2014, population within these areas increased by 9%, or 13,233 residents. The Census Bureau defines two types of urban areas: Urbanized Areas of 50,000 or more people and Urban Clusters of at least 2,500 and less than 50,0007. In addition to the St. Augustine Urbanized Area and the Jacksonville Urbanized Area, the World Golf Village area is an Urban Cluster located west of Interstate 95 near SR 16. Population estimates for St. Johns County’s three incorporated areas, the City of St. Augustine, the City of St. Augustine Beach and the Town of Hastings are shown in Table 3.4. Incorporated jurisdictions make up about 10% of the County’s total population. Of the incorporated areas, St. Augustine has the largest population (13,590), followed by St. Augustine Beach (6,480). 7 U.S. Census Bureau website https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/uafaq.html, 8/2016 44 | Page St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update Figure 3.1 Service Area 45 | Page St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update Table 3.1 North Florida’s Population by County Population 2010 - 2014 % of North Annual County % # 2000 2010 2014 Florida's Average % Change Change Population Change Baker 22,259 27,115 27,093 1.7% -0.1% -22 0.0% Clay 140,814 190,865 199,798 12.5% 4.7% 8,933 1.2% Duval 778,879 864,263 897,698 56.3% 3.9% 33,435 1.0% Flagler 49,832 95,696 102,408 6.4% 7.0% 6,712 1.8% Nassau 57,663 73,314 76,619 4.8% 4.5% 3,305 1.1% Putnam 70,423 74,364 72,143 4.5% -3.0% -2,221 -0.7% St. Johns 123,135 190,039 217,919 13.7% 14.7% 27,880 3.7% Region 1,243,005 1,488,541 1,593,678 100.0% 7.1% 105,137 1.8% State of 15,982,824 18,801,310 19,893,297 ------ 5.8% 1,091,987 1.5% Florida Source: US Census Bureau State & County Quick Facts, 2014 July 1 Estimate. Table 3.2 St. Johns County Population Characteristics Characteristic 2010 2014 % Change Persons 190,039 217,919 14.7% Households 75,338 81,309 7.9% Civilians employed in labor force 88,212 99,939 13.3% Land area (square miles) 600.66 600.66 0.0% Persons per square mile of land area (Density) 316.4 362.8 14.7% Source: 2010 Census Demographic Profile Data (DP-1); 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates for civilians employed; 2014 US Census Bureau Estimate; and 2014 ACS 1-Year Estimates Table 3.3 Urban Area Population Population Share of % of Change, Share of 2010 2014 Urban Urban Area County's 2010 - 2014 County Population Population Area Population Growth # % Growth St. Augustine Urbanized Area 69,173 75,492 34.6% 6,319 9.1% 47.8% 22.7% World Golf Village Urban Cluster 6,622 7,227 3.3% 605 9.1% 4.6% 2.2% Jacksonville Urbanized Area 69,065 75,374 34.6% 6,309 9.1% 47.7% 22.6% Total Urban Area 144,860 158,093 72.5% 13,233 9.1% 100.0% 47.5% Total St. Johns County 190,039 217,919 100.0% 27,880 14.7% ----- 100.0% Source: FDOT Office of Policy Planning, Urbanized Area Population Estimates (April 1, 2014), March 2015; FDOT Urban Cluster Population Estimates (April 1, 2014), March 2015 46 | Page St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update Table 3.4 Population by Jurisdiction Population % Hastings 604 0.3% St. Augustine 13,590 6.4% St. Augustine Beach 6,480 3.0% Unincorporated Area 192,890 90.3% County Total 213,566 100.0% Source: Florida Estimates of Population, BEBR (Bureau of Economic and Business Research), University of Florida, 2015 3.3 Population Density and Demographics 3.3.1 Population Density Geographic information systems (GIS) was used to develop a spatial analysis of population within St. Johns County, using the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) data (2014 5-Year Estimates). Overall, the highest concentrations of St. Johns County’s populations are located in the urbanized areas. Figure 3.2 (Population Density) represents the greatest concentrations of county residents in orange and red, and the smallest concentrations of residents in shades of green. In the St. Augustine Urbanized Area the greatest population densities are generally located north and south of King Street between Masters Drive and SR A1A; the St. Augustine South area; east of Anastasia Boulevard, near the Bridge of Lions; St. Augustine Beach, south of SR 312 between SR A1A and A1A Beach Boulevard; and along SR A1A, north of SR 206. Using year 2040 data from the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Model (NERPM), GIS was applied to complete a spatial examination of future population density within St. Johns County (Figure 3.3). Over the next twenty years, population densities increase across the county. Areas with the greatest densities generally remain in the St. Augustine Urbanized Area and Jacksonville Urbanized Areas (northeast and northwest St. Johns County). The Nocatee DRI area (east of US 1 and south of Nocatee Parkway), however, significantly increases in population density, as does an approximate 13-acre area west of US 1 near the Twin Creeks DRI (just west of US 1 and south of CR 210), potentially future workforce housing. 3.3.2 Demographic Summary Table 3.5 identifies overall percentages of demographic groups for St. Johns County. Compared to Florida, the county contains a lower percentage of Hispanic or Latino residents (5.7% vs. 23.3%); a higher percentage of white residents (89.6% vs. 76.2%); a lower percentage of residents speaking languages other than English (7.8% vs. 27.8%); a higher median income ($65,575 vs. $47,212); a lower percentage of persons below poverty level (9.7% vs. 16.7%); and higher percentages of high school (93.8% vs. 86.5%) and college graduates (41.4% vs. 26.8%). According to Census data, 1.5% of the county’s workers have no vehicle available in their household (Table 3.6). The incorporated communities of St. Augustine and Hastings have greater percentages of 47 | Page St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update workers with no vehicles, at 6.9% and 11.2%, respectively. St. Augustine Beach is at 1.9%. A spatial distribution of household with no vehicles available is shown in Figure 3.4. Population densities and percentages were also mapped for several population groups that tend to use transit more frequently than the general population, including low income populations, households without private vehicles, seniors and persons with limited English proficiency (Figures 3.5 -3.10). The highest concentrations of these population groups are generally located in the urbanized areas. However, the southwest area of the County (west of Interstate 95 between SR 206 and CR 13, including portions of Hastings) contains relatively high percentages of residents living below poverty level, higher percentages of households with no vehicles and lower median household incomes. Areas with the lowest median household incomes are generally located in and near the St. Augustine urbanized area and the southwest area of the county (including Hastings). Figure 3.2 Population Density 48 | Page St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update Figure 3.3 Future Population Density 49 | Page St. Johns County Transit Development Plan, 2016 Major Update Table 3.5 Demographic Characteristics Summary St.