GREAT EXPECTATIONS GREAT EXPECTATIONS: Team Members An Assessment of the Potential for Suborbital Transportation Simon Adebola, Nigeria Timiebi Aganaba, United Kingdom James Antifaev, Canada Sandra Cabrera Alvarado, Mexico Cian Curran, Ireland Luke Davis, USA Camille Desportes, France Mehmet Fatih Engin, Turkey Oriol Gallemi i Rovira, Spain David Halbert, United Kingdom Christopher Kelly, Ireland Jindrich Krasa, Czech Republic Alexandra Laeng, France James MacLeod, Canada Scott Morley, Canada Charles Otegbade, Nigeria Dushyant Padia, India Gina Pieri, USA Norma Tersinha Oliveira Reis, Brazil Amanda Stiles, USA Elodie Viau, France Ole Kristian Western, Norway Serhan Yaldiz, Turkey MASTERS 2008 I n t e r n a t i o n a l S p a c e U n i v e r s i t y MASTERS 2008 - FINAL REPORT Great Expectations Assessing the Potential for Suborbital Transportation Final Report International Space University Masters Program 2008 © International Space University. All Rights Reserved. The 2007-2008 Masters Program of the International Space University was conducted at the International Space University in Strasbourg, France. The cities depicted on the cover of the report are Paris, Tokyo, and New York. These represent major travel hubs located around the world which may hold promise for the development of point to point suborbital transportation services. The cities are linked together by curves representing suborbital trajectories. The placement of cities on both the front and back covers represents the large distances between these cities, but a single trajectory connecting the cities illustrates the potential of suborbital transportation to bridge these cities together. The cover art was developed by Amanda Stiles and Chris Kelly, with input from the entire team. The graphics are intended as a visual representation of the point to point suborbital transportation team project. While all care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it should not be relied on, and ISU does not take any responsibility for the accuracy of its content. The Executive Summary and the Final Report may be found on the ISU website at http://www.isunet.edu/ in the “ISU Publications/Student Reports” section. Paper copies of these documents may also be requested, while supplies last, from: International Space University Strasbourg Central Campus Attention: Publications/Library Parc d’Innovation 1 rue Jean-Dominique Cassini 67400 Illkirch-Graffenstaden France Tel. +33 (0)3 88 65 54 32 Fax. +33 (0)3 88 65 54 47 e-mail. [email protected] ii International Space University, Masters 2008 Great Expectations: Assessing the Potential for Suborbital Transportation Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Point to Point Suborbital Transportation team would like to acknowledge the ISU faculty and staff for their advice and support during the project. In particular, the team expresses their sincere gratitude to the following members of the faculty and staff: Nicolas Moncussi For IT support during the Team Project and Literature Review Joel Herrmann For invaluable Report and Executive Summary logistics information Walter Peeters For extensive legal and business advice Isabelle Scholl For support as the Faculty Advisor during the Literature Review Nikolai Tolyarenko For technical advice on a variety of topics Vasilis Zervos For support as the Faculty Advisor during the Team Project The Point to Point Suborbital Transportation team would also like to acknowledge the following people for providing their invaluable knowledge, advice, and input during the Team Project: Kelly Alton United Risk Solutions, USA Dr. Tare Brisibe SITA, Switzerland Jim Dator Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, USA Jim Dunstan Attorney, USA John Gedmark Personal Spaceflight Federation, USA Doug Griffith Attorney, USA Joshua Neubert X PRIZE Foundation, USA Brooke Owens Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Space Transportation, USA Will Pomerantz X PRIZE Foundation, USA Henry Spencer Canada Stuart Witt Mojave Air and Space Port, USA International Space University, Masters 2008 iii Great Expectations: Assessing the Potential for Suborbital Transportation List of Authors AUTHORS Simon Adebola, Nigeria Timiebi Aganaba, United Kingdom Medicine & Surgery Law James Antifaev, Canada Sandra Cabrera Alvarado, Mexico Integrated Engineering International Relations Cian Curran, Ireland Luke Davis, USA Architecture International Technical Management Camille Desportes, France Mehmet Fatih Engin, Turkey Geophysical Engineering Astronomy and Space Science Oriol Gallemi i Rovira, Spain David Halbert, United Kingdom Automotive Engineering Natural Science Christopher Kelly, Ireland Jindrich Krasa, Czech Republic Computer Engineering Aerospace Engineering Alexandra Laeng, France James MacLeod, Canada Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Scott Morley, Canada Charles Otegbade, Nigeria Political Science & Management Meteorology/International Affairs & Diplomacy Dushyant Padia, India Gina Pieri, USA Electronics and Communications Engineering Aerospace Engineering Norma Teresinha Oliveira Reis, Brazil Amanda Stiles, USA Education Aerospace Engineering Elodie Viau, France Ole Kristian Western, Norway Telecommunication Engineering Technical Cybernetics Serhan Yaldiz, Turkey Aeronautical Engineering iv International Space University, Masters 2008 Great Expectations: Assessing the Potential for Suborbital Transportation Abstract ABSTRACT There has recently been a tremendous growth in the private funding of satellite and launch vehicle technology as well as various technical aspects of astronautics and space exploration. In the past this has largely been due to government support, via supporting international legal regimes and awarding contracts to private companies. Private initiatives in commercial launch vehicle development aimed at exploiting the potentials of a global space tourism market have also served to further strengthen the role that the private industries are taking in the space sector. With this growth in launch vehicle development, comes a revived focus on space technologies as means of transportation, with point to point suborbital flights being looked at as the next step. As key technologies mature, there is a possibility for suborbital space flight to become a viable method of transporting passengers and cargo around the world; however, there are many questions raised by this and the need therefore exists to lay a foundation for the successful realization of any such initiative. This report seeks to outline the conditions that would be required for this growth. This report is a thorough appraisal of the technological, financial, marketing, safety, infrastructural, and legal requirements for the point to point suborbital transportation industry. Focused on the transport of passengers and cargo, the report analyzes in detail the conditions that should be put in place to foster and sustain this industry. It describes the existing challenges and discusses possible options for overcoming these while drawing from the experience of previous programs. The report includes an in-depth look at the feasibility of point to point suborbital transportation from the perspective of cost, funding, technology development, and the possibility of growth from a fledgling suborbital tourism industry. The conclusions are synthesized into a series of recommendations for the next generation of suborbital travel to go forth and prosper. International Space University, Masters 2008 v Great Expectations: Assessing the Potential for Suborbital Transportation Faculty Preface FACULTY PREFACE A team of just over twenty graduate students (24-43 years old) from very diverse academic (education to engineering) and ethnic backgrounds (Africa, America, Asia, Europe) produced this report which carries a 25% weighting on their Master’s degree here at the International Space University during the academic year 2007- 2008. An international effort to critically assess via a comprehensive and interdisciplinary study the case for point to point suborbital transportation has resulted in a high quality and definitive report. This task was accomplished by a group of students truly epitomizing intercultural and interdisciplinary collaboration leading to a balanced approach and conclusions. The individuals all have a story in terms of their experiences gained; this is usually of no interest or knowledge to the reader. For an applied academic environment this is however of equally high importance as the outcome itself. This is a piece that collectively the group can be proud of, as each and every individual in one way or another experienced moments of excellence in the process of completing it. This work is naturally dedicated to those moments and efforts associated with the team members. For my part it was a privilege and a very productive experience to facilitate the team’s efforts and I thank them for their respect and intellectual sharing. Associate Professor Vasilis Zervos, on behalf of ISU’s Resident Faculty vi International Space University, Masters 2008 Great Expectations: Assessing the Potential for Suborbital Transportation Author Preface AUTHOR PREFACE “"Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.” ” - Mr. Jaggers, Great Expectations As the inspiration for a study of suborbital transportation, a nineteenth century coming of age tale may initially strike some as an odd choice. Great Expectations, arguably Charles Dickens' finest work, is the story of a young boy, plucked out of poverty