Monthly Investment Report November 2019 Level 14, 5 Martin Place Sydney, NSW 2000 Website: https://imperium.markets Email: [email protected] Phone: +61 2 9053 2987 ABN: 87 616 579 527 ACN: 616 579 527 AFSL No. 429718 (Authorised Representative) Holder of an Australian Market Licence Council’s Portfolio & Compliance Asset Allocation The majority of the portfolio is directed to fixed and floating rate term deposits (69%) followed by liquid FRNs (13%). The remaining portfolio is directed to overnight cash accounts (13%) and the T-CorpIM Long-Term Growth Fund (6%). Should FRN margins become more attractive relative to deposits, Council may consider increasing its allocation to liquid senior floating rate notes (FRNs). This will not only provide potential upside with regards to the portfolio’s investment returns, but also additional liquidity (FRNs are saleable – generally accessible within 2 business days). For the immediate future, any attractive medium-longer dated fixed deposits should be considered in anticipation of further interest rate cuts by the RBA. Term to Maturity All maturity limits (minimum and maximum) comply with the Investment Policy. The majority of the portfolio is directed to short-term assets (3-12 months) and medium-term (2-5 years) assets, which account for around 21% and 29% of the total investment portfolio respectively. We believe medium-term assets are where the most value is in the current low interest rate environment. We continue to recommend surplus funds be allocated to new senior FRN issues or fixed rate term deposits, where attractive (refer to respective sections below). Monthly Investment Report: November 2019 Page 2 Compliant Horizon Invested ($) Invested (%) Min. Limit (%) Max. Limit (%) Available ($) ✓ 0 - 90 days $8,957,695 25.13% 10% 100% $26,689,859 ✓ 91 - 365 days $7,400,000 20.76% 0% 100% $28,247,554 ✓ 1 - 2 years $7,053,109 19.79% 0% 70% $17,900,179 ✓ 2 - 5 years $10,161,406 28.51% 0% 50% $7,662,371 ✓ 5 - 10 years $2,075,343 5.82% 0% 25% $6,836,545 $35,647,554 100.00% Counterparty As at the end of November, there was a marginal overweight position to AMP (A-) by ~$195k. We have no concerns with this ‘overweight’ position given over $1.7m is held in the 31 day notice account with AMP. Overall, the portfolio is well diversified across the entire credit spectrum, including an allocation to the unrated ADIs. Compliant Issuer Rating Invested ($) Invested (%) Max. Limit (%) Available ($) ✓ ANZ AA- $1,714,458 4.81% 30% $8,979,808 ✓ CBA AA- $1,004,157 2.82% 30% $9,690,109 ✓ NAB AA- $3,773,415 10.59% 30% $6,920,851 ✓ WBC AA- $3,000,000 8.42% 30% $7,694,266 ✓ Citibank N.A. A+ $500,340 1.40% 20% $6,629,171 ✓ ING Bank A $3,000,000 8.42% 20% $4,129,511 X AMP Bank BBB+ $7,324,378 20.55% 20% -$194,868 ✓ Aus. Military BBB+ $500,000 1.40% 20% $6,629,511 ✓ BoQ BBB+ $4,000,000 11.22% 20% $3,129,511 ✓ Heritage Bank BBB+ $503,145 1.41% 20% $6,626,366 ✓ Auswide Bank BBB $1,000,000 2.81% 20% $6,129,511 ✓ ME Bank BBB $651,859 1.83% 20% $6,477,652 ✓ Newcastle PBS BBB $2,757,154 7.73% 20% $4,372,357 ✓ IMB Bank BBB $1,100,000 3.09% 20% $6,029,511 ✓ Bananacoast CU Unrated $1,743,304 4.89% 5% $39,074 ✓ Police CU SA Unrated $500,000 1.40% 5% $1,282,378 ✓ WAW CU Unrated $500,000 1.40% 5% $1,282,378 ✓ NSW TCorp LTG Unrated $2,075,343 5.82% 6% $0 $35,647,554 100.00% We remain supportive of the regional and unrated ADI sector (and have been even throughout the GFC period). They continue to remain solid, incorporate strong balance sheets, while exhibiting high levels of capital – typically, much higher compared to the higher rated ADIs. Some unrated ADIs have up to 25-40% more capital than the domestic major banks, and well above the Basel III requirements. APRA’s Chairman affirmed that the banks had satisfactorily moved towards an ‘unquestionably strong’ capital position and that bank’s stress testing contingency plans were now far better positioned that Monthly Investment Report: November 2019 Page 3 was previously the case years ago. APRA’s stress test which hypothetically increased the unemployment rate to 11% (more than double the current rate) and for house prices to fall 35% showed the banks remained above the minimum capital levels. We note that APRA’s discussion paper also highlighted that the domestic major banks were required to raise more capital while the lower rated ADIs were already deemed to be at a satisfactory level. APRA’s mandate is to “protect depositors” and provide “financial stability”. Overall, the lower rated ADIs (BBB and unrated) are generally now in a better financial position then they have been historically (see the Capital Ratio figure below). We believe that deposit investments with the lower rated ADIs should be continued going forward, particularly when they offer ‘above market’ specials. Not only would it diversify the investment portfolio and reduce credit risk, it would also improve the portfolio’s overall returns. In the current environment of high regulation and scrutiny, all domestic ADIs continue to carry high levels of capital, particularly amongst the lower (“BBB”) and unrated ADIs. There is minimal (if any) probability of any ADI defaulting on their deposits going forward – this was stress tested during the GFC. The biggest single risk that depositors face in the current low interest rate environment is not credit risk, but reinvestment risk. Monthly Investment Report: November 2019 Page 4 Credit Quality The portfolio remains well diversified from a credit ratings perspective. The portfolio is predominately invested amongst the investment grade ADIs (BBB- or higher), with a smaller allocation to unrated ADIs. On 27th August, AMP Bank was downgraded by ratings agency S&P to BBB+ (negative watch), from A- (negative watch). Their short-term rating was unchanged at A-2. This was a result of AMP Group selling its life insurance arm at a revised deal earlier in the month. S&P believed that the group's profits will be less diversified going forward due to this sale. We have no issues with Council’s exposure to AMP Bank (approx. $7.3m) given they continue to have a robust balance sheet with their level of capital remaining above the minimum regulatory requirement set by APRA. On 27th November 2019, Australian Military Bank formally received a credit rating of Baa1 (long-term) by rating’s agency Moody’s. This was equivalent to a credit rating of BBB+ by Standard & Poor’s. This also impacted the overweight position of the “BBB” category given the $500k investment. The “BBB” rated ADIs is now above the policy limits, by around $3.6m. Council can partially reduce this exposure by redeeming $1.7m out of the AMP 31 day notice account. A further $0.5m deposit will mature with AMP Bank (BBB+) in December 2019 – this will need to be redeemed and reinvested elsewhere to rebalance the portfolio. From a ratings perspective, the “BBB” rated banks now generally dominate the number of ADIs issuing deposits within the investment grade space. We anticipate more investors will naturally allocate a higher proportion of their assets into this sector (on a historical basis), considering the most attractive assets from senior debt securities are generally offered by these ADIs. For now, until the portfolio is rebalanced, Council is largely limited to investments outside the “BBB” rated sector. All other ratings categories are within the Policy limits: Compliant Credit Rating Invested ($) Invested (%) Max. Limit (%) Available ($) ✓ “AA” or Major Bank $9,492,030 26.63% 100.00% $26,155,524 ✓ “A” Category $3,500,340 9.82% 60.00% $17,888,193 X “BBB” Category $17,836,537 50.04% 40.00% -$3,577,515 ✓ Unrated ADIs $2,743,304 7.70% 20.00% $4,386,207 ✓ Unrated Managed Funds $2,075,343 5.82% 5.82% $0 $35,647,554 100.00% Monthly Investment Report: November 2019 Page 5 Performance Council’s performance for the month ending 30 November 2019 is summarised as follows: Performance 1 month 3 months 6 months FYTD 1 year Official Cash Rate 0.06% 0.21% 0.48% 0.38% 1.23% AusBond Bank Bill Index 0.08% 0.25% 0.58% 0.45% 1.58% Council’s T/D Portfolio 0.21% 0.64% 1.35% 1.10% 2.83% Council’s FRN Portfolio 0.17% 0.53% 1.16% 0.93% 2.77% TCorpIM Growth Fund 2.22% 3.74% 8.62% 5.20% 16.94% TCorp Benchmark 2.36% 3.82% 8.78% 5.34% 17.40% Council’s Portfolio^ 0.34% 0.84% 1.92% 1.37% 4.19% Outperformance 0.26% 0.59% 1.33% 0.92% 2.61% ^Total portfolio performance excludes Council's cash account holdings. Overall returns would be lower if cash was included. The total investment portfolio had another solid month in November, returning +0.34% (actual), outperforming the benchmark AusBond Bank Bill Index return of +0.26% (actual). The portfolio’s longer-term strong performance continues to be anchored by the deposit portfolio, particularly the handful of deposits still yielding close to 3% p.a. or above. However, the majority of these individual deposits are fast maturing and will inevitably be reinvested at lower prevailing rates. With deposit margins tightening over the past 3 years, compared to previous years, the FRN portfolio was starting to narrow the gap where performance is concerned compared to the deposit portfolio, although this is likely to reverse following successive interest rate cuts in June, July and October 2019.