Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue THE QUESTION OF STATUS IN PUERTO RICO REVISITED: Rational-Choice, Spatial Analysis, and Heresthetics Rashid C.J. Marcano-Rivera translated as “Commonwealth”) was Introduction and background established. Scholarly and political discussion remains divided on the One of the most discussed and significance of this event with regards to the analyzed issues in Puerto Rican politics is status question1. While some indicate that the question of the political status of the the Commonwealth signifies a different archipelago. For almost two centuries, this status to previously held ones, others claim topic has characterized the entire debate, that no such change occurred. They maintain first with Spain, and presently with the that status has been the same since 1917, United States. This ‘debate’ included several when Congress statutorily made all Puerto failed revolts for independence, movements Ricans US citizens. for annexation, and movements for Previous research has delved into the increased autonomy within the Spanish issue2 extensively. In particular, approaches crown. Autonomists achieved their goal on with rational choice models have tried to November of 1897: Puerto Rico was granted elucidate and predict behavior in this regard. an Autonomic Charter, which conceded For instance, in The Question of Status in political and administrative autonomy to the Puerto Rico (Garriga-Picó, 1979), the island. This new status did not last for long, analysis assumed a plebiscitarian however: the United States invaded the interpretation of general elections in Puerto country in July 25, 1898, and Spain ceded 1 Puerto Rico along with Cuba, the The United States government indicates that Puerto Rico is a territory subject to Congress through the Constitution’s Philippines, and Guam in December of that Territorial Clause (U.S. Const., Art. IV, Sec. 3, cl. 2). This year. position is held by independentistas and estadistas, and it’s also used by soberanistas, but it’s denied by others like The overarching themes of political estadolibristas who describe the 1952 constitution as a pact between Puerto Rico and the United States that solved struggle, exclusion, and repression unequivocally this issue. This will be further discussed in experienced under Spanish rule replicated future sections of this paper. 2 This paper revisits some of the discussion and findings of themselves under American rule. This was José Enrique Garriga Picó’s doctoral thesis, The Question particularly the case under the military and of Status in Puerto Rico: A Rational Choice Analysis (NYU 1979). The literature involved , however, is not solely civil but undemocratic governments of academic, but also political and institutional, with 1898-1900 and 1900-1948. The situation presidential taskforces and congressional commissions intervening in the discussion from time to time. Some of changed somewhat in 1952, when the these reports are also used to elucidate the interpretation of Constitution of the Estado Libre Asociado the U.S. Congress to the post-2012 referendum situation. (lit. “Free Associated State”, usually 1 Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue Rico, and stated that the Commonwealth policy posturing is basically tied with status alternative was unambiguously the preferences: the Partido Independentista Condorcet candidate. That is, the alternative Puertorriqueño (PIP, Puerto Rican that given pair-wise contest against its Independence Party) advocates for full competitors, -- here Statehood (annexation independence; the Partido Popular as the 51st state of the United States) and Democrático (PPD, Popular Democratic Independence -- could muster a majority in Party) traditionally advocates for the status its support, even though in reality its real quo (the Commonwealth) yet is currently supporters were less than a majority. As split on this issue; finally the Partido Nuevo foreshadowed by Garriga Picó, this was not Progresista (PNP, New Progressive Party) a perennial situation. Because of a small advocates for statehood. This special change in the manner in which the political condition allowed for a alternative was presented to the electorate in plebiscitarian analysis of elections, as 2012, Commonwealth was finally defeated conducted by Garriga Picó. However, the with the combined votes of the pro- arrival of new parties, with policy-based independence and pro-statehood electorate, instead of status-based platforms, may leading to the current state of affairs, which present obstacles to this approach. Of these will be discussed thoroughly in this paper. parties, only one has a clearly identified In section 2, I begin with a discussion of status preference in their platform (and party party rankings of the status alternatives. In name), the Movimiento Unión Soberanista section 3, I analyze variations in the (MUS, Sovereigntist Union Movement). As electorate’s preferences between the 1998 a consequence, the arrival of MUS and 2012 status referenda, and proceed to necessitates a departure from this method. model and explain the reasoning behind Moreover, the presence of a status plebiscite, these changes. In section 4, I evaluate the which provoked most parties to announce alternative presented by the Puerto Rican their preferences explicit or implicitly, government to tackle the status conundrum. facilitates this analysis. From the established data and assumptions, I indicate how such an alternative would lead PPD – a party with split preferences to a solution to the issue at hand. I conclude that the status issue has now moved to a The PPD is currently the governing different situation, given the defeat of the party after receiving a plurality victory in status quo alternative. the 2012 general elections. When confronted with the PNP-proposed plebiscite, which divided the status question into two3, the Electoral organizations and their preferred status alternatives 3 The first question of the plebiscite was “Do you agree that Puerto Rico should continue to have its present form of In Puerto Rican politics, three major territorial status? Yes __ No __” The second question said parties have shared nearly 100 percent of the “Regardless of your selection in the first question, please mark which of the following non-territorial options would vote in elections since 1968. The three you prefer: Statehood _ Independence _ Sovereign Free parties are not symmetrically sized, and their Associated State _”. (Source: Sample November 2012 plebiscite ballot, Comisión Estatal de Elecciones [CEE] 2 Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue PPD leaders reached a joint conclusion, Autonomistas or conservadores – Status advocating for a Constituent Assembly Quo or ‘Enhanced (usually a soberanista proposal) instead of a Commonwealth’ plebiscite as a means to decide the status issue. However, the party’s factions faced Governor Alejandro García Padilla, the plebiscite split, a sector advocating for a as well as other party strongmen like former “Yes & Blank” vote and another governor Rafael Hernández Colón, currently championing either a “Yes & Sovereignty” lead the (slightly) majoritarian faction of the or a “No & Sovereignty” vote. party. This faction either favors status quo or calls for the development of the Soberanistas – The Associated Republic Commonwealth within the Territorial Clause. or ‘Sovereign Free Associated For the plebiscite, this faction called for a State’ ‘Yes’ vote on the first question (validating the current territorial status) and a blank The soberanista (pro-sovereignty vote on the second question as a means of faction) leaders like Carmen Yulín Cruz protest against the design of the Plebiscite. Soto, now mayor of San Juan, advocated for Recently, however, during status hearings in a vote for the ELA Soberano alternative Congress to discuss the results of the 2012 (Sovereign Free Associated State), while Plebiscite, it advocated for a vague political denouncing the plebiscite as political alternative, the ‘Enhanced Commonwealth’, trickery, claimed that their proposed which would make Puerto Rico able to Constituent Status Assembly presented a choose (critics would rather say cherry-pick) better alternative to settle in a more which federal laws and regulations apply to consensual manner the century old affair. 4 the territory. Although the 2011 and 2007 Based on documents and many public President’s Task Force reports dismissed speeches, I determined that their scale of this option on the grounds of it being preferences is 1) ‘Sovereign Free Associated unconstitutional, I include it in the options State’ (which is basically free association or list because the analysis is focused on what an associated republic); 2) Independence parties prefer and actively discuss. From (due to the proximity to preference 1); 3) their definition of ‘enhanced commonwealth’ ‘Enhanced Commonwealth’ (due to its and based on the discussion that took place vague proximity); 4) Status quo; and 5) in the congressional hearings of August Statehood as their next worst and worst 2013, I identify this group’s preferential alternatives. order as: 1) Status Quo; 2) ‘Enhanced Commonwealth’; 3) Sovereign Free Associated State; 4) Independence; and as http://ceepur.org/es- the worst alternative for this group 5) pr/Documents/PapeletaModeloPlebiscito12.pdf). Statehood (which, according to governor 4 Among others, the proposed Pacto de Asociación prepared by PPD senators