EFFECTS OF SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN DECISIONS ABOUT FISHING EFFORT OF A SMALL-SCALE TUNA FISHERY IN ENDE, EASTERN INDONESIA by VICTORIA CONSTANZA RAMENZONI (Under the Direction of Bram T. Tucker) ABSTRACT Fishery research is useful in guiding conservation efforts and implementing quota restrictions based on assessments and simulations of the current state of stocks. Despite the availability of new approaches that account for environmental uncertainty and variability, policy design in small-scale fisheries still relies on a technical understanding of fish and fishermen populations alike (McIlgorm et al. 2010, Acheson and Wilson 1996, McGoodwin 1990). Ecosystem Based Fishery Models, Adaptive Management, and Socio-Ecological Systems perspectives often fail to incorporate the human dimensions of resource use and bottom- up behavioral approaches. In this dissertation, I study decisions about fishing efforts in a small tuna fishery in Ende, Flores, Eastern Indonesia through ethnographic (participant observation, semi- structure interviews, surveys), ecological (weather monitoring and coastal integrity assessments), and experimental tools (anthropometrics and probability judgment tasks). Relying on a socio- ecological and household-based approach, I use multilevel models, multivariate statistics and regression analysis techniques. My goal is to understand how environmental uncertainty influences fishing intensity and perceptions of catches, creating new behavioral responses that have consequences for the fishery as a whole. My objectives are to: 1) explore local narratives about luck and uncertainty; 2) describe the state of the stocks and present observational evidence to quantify statements of overfishing; 3) study decisions about fishing effort allocation taking into account the role of environmental uncertainty and its effects on the traditional moon cycle fishing calendar; and 4) characterize local perceptions of catchability and uncertainty and their impacts on fishing success. Results indicate that conservation policies need to: 1) understand the role of socioeconomic and environmental uncertainty in fishing effort and how it impacts household patterns of resource use before assuming that an area is overfished; 2) model individual decision making in terms of the economics of resource extraction and incorporate socio-environmental uncertainty to explain current level of fishing effort; 3) consider that fishermen can generate adequate representations that mimic probability distributions of ecological resources even when environmental probability is high; and 4) recognize that flexibility in strategies is a result of enabling structural responses in local communities that go beyond technical solutions. INDEX WORDS: decision-making in uncertainty, marine anthropology, socio-ecological perspective, time allocation, climate change EFFECTS OF SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN DECISIONS ABOUT FISHING EFFORT OF A SMALL-SCALE TUNA FISHERY IN ENDE, EASTERN INDONESIA by VICTORIA CONSTANZA RAMENZONI BA Anthropology, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2006. A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY ATHENS, GEORGIA 2014 © 2014 Victoria Constanza Ramenzoni All Rights Reserved EFFECTS OF SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN DECISIONS ABOUT FISHING EFFORT OF A SMALL-SCALE TUNA FISHERY IN ENDE, EASTERN INDONESIA by VICTORIA CONSTANZA RAMENZONI Major Professor: Bram T. Tucker Committee: Ted Gragson Susan S. Tanner Pete Brosius Patricia Yager Electronic Version Approved: Maureen Grasso Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia May 2014 iv DEDICATION To my small Argentine family, To my midsize American collective, To my larger Indonesian community, To all the ocean creatures that contributed their lives to my data. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Mom, Dad and Vero I acknowledge first, for without them I would not have lived (literally) these past seven years. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! Martin and Virginia, who are always shining in my skylight and keep me on the path to become a good older sister: thank you too guys! Third and fourth in my list is Bram Tucker who deserves not just one, but two huge and immense acknowledgements. This dissertation is yours as well as mine boss! To Mike, Patti, Madalena and Rocio, oh man, who are my family, friends, and all of that is in between. To Lexi, Christine, Maria Ruth and Heather i give super and gigantic acknowledgements for they have put up with me in Spanish, English and Indonesian. Julica, Mama, Intan, Bapak, Anton, Mama Ama, Bapak Nasir, Ahma, Mohammad, Shakti, Dr. Pujo, Ibu Lala, Pak Chris, Pak Fredy, Agnes, Dr. Titis, and so many others in Indonesia who have received me and made me dream in Indonesian. To Ted, Pete, Tish and Susan who have helped me in wonderful and suprising ways, without losing faith, all along this time. Thank you for being patient with me. And specially to you, Margie, La Bau, Brenda and Deb who made all of this possible, and went further and beyond for me. To all of those that I did not include but I should have, please forgive me. Last, I acknowledge my inspiration: Ernesto, Nestor, Rodolfo and Bungkarno. "Si el presente es de lucha, el futuro es nuestro." vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ...........................................................................................................................x LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1 2 LITERATURE REVIEW. MODELING DECISION-MAKING IN UNCERTAINTY AMONG SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN: A ROADMAP ..........................................8 2.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................8 2.2. Decision making in fisheries: studying individual fishing effort in small-scale fisheries ..................................................................................................................11 2.3. Judgment under uncertainty and bounded rationality .....................................14 2.4. Decision making in uncertainty in anthropology and human behavioral ecology ...................................................................................................................17 2.5. Environmental structure based model of decision-making and index of environmental complexity .....................................................................................21 2.6. General Discussion and Conclusion ...............................................................31 3 ENDENESE FISHERIES: CASTING THE NET ON LOCAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE. EXPLORATORY FINDINGS ON ENVIRONMENTAL PERCEPTIONS, FISHING EFFORT, AND OVERFISHING IN EASTERN vii INDONESIA. ...............................................................................................................33 3.1. Introduction .....................................................................................................35 3.2. Ende ................................................................................................................38 3.2. Endenese Landscape .......................................................................................41 3.4. Traditional ecological knowledge and climate change: why optimization is not “rational” ..........................................................................................................53 3.5. Conclusions .....................................................................................................62 4 AN INTEGRATIVE SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FISHING HOUSEHOLDS: COMBINING OBSERVATIONAL, HISTORICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA IN POOR INFORMATION FISHERIES TO ANALYZE ANTHROPOGENIC AND ECOLOGICAL PRESSURES IN ENDE, FLORES, INDONESIA. ..............................................................................................64 4.1. Introduction .....................................................................................................65 4.2. Small-scale fisheries and human dimensions of resource use ........................67 4.3. Study Area ......................................................................................................74 4.4. Data collection and sources ............................................................................80 4.5. Data analysis ...................................................................................................81 4.6. Results .............................................................................................................90 4.7. General Discussion and Conclusions ............................................................107 5 TEMPORAL PATTERNS IN FISHING EFFORT: USING MULTILEVEL METHODS TO EXPLORE THE CHANGES IN TIME ALLOCATION ACCORDING TO THE LUNAR CYCLE OF A SMALL-SCALE FISHERY IN EASTERN INDONESIA. IS NEW SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY viii REDEFINING FISHING PROFILES? .....................................................................114 5.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................115 5.2. Temporal patterns, regularities and