LAND USE, WATER QUALITY AND RIVER-MOUTH LOADINGS: A SELECTIVE OVERVIEW FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO by Edwin D. Ongley Department of Geography Queen's University Kingston, Ontario with assistance from Prof. L.H. Broekhoven Department of Mathematics Queen's University A Technical Report to the International Reference Group on GREAT LAKES POLLUTION FROM LAND USE ACTIVITIES of the International Joint Commission. Prepared under contract DSS OSU77-00129, Department of Fisheries and Environment, Canada. March, 1978 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. List Of Tables iv List Of Figures vi Acknowledgements vii 1. Introduction 1 Background 2 Limitations Of The Regional Approach 3 Remarks On Report Content 3 2. Summary Conclusions 5 A. Water Quality Data Evaluation 5 B. Phosphorus 6 C. Land Use - Water Quality Relationships 8 D. Data File Filtering 12 3. Data Description 14 Introduction 14 Water Quality - Land Use Linkages 14 Water Quality 14 Population 19 Basin Area 19 Landform Classes 19 Land Use Data 19 4. Point And Nonpoint Basins 23 5. Ranked Loadings, Concentrations And Yields Of River-mouth Data 24 6. Phosphorus Trends And Response To Abatement Programs, 1969 - 1974 26 Introduction 26 Data 27 Hydrologic Factors 32 Working Hypothesis 33 Discussion 33 Conclusions 39 7. Source Contributions To 1974 River-mouth Phosphorus Loads, Ontario 41 Introduction 41 Atmospheric Phosphorus 43 River-mouth Phosphorus Loads 44 Municipal Waste Loads 45 Discussion 45 Conclusions 49 ii 8. Covariance In Variable Subsets 51 9. Factor Analysis 58 Introduction 58 Discussion 59 R Mode Analysis 59 Q Mode Analysis 63 Conclusions 64 10. Discriminant Analysis 66 Introduction 66 Variables 69 Discussion 70 Summary Of Results 71 Overview 71 Overburden-rural 74 Urban Subcategories 74 Basin Communality 75 Recommendations 77 11. Correlation-regression Analysis 78 Introduction 78 Total Dissolved Solids 81 Suspended Solids 82 Total Nitrogen 91 Nitrate Nitrogen 92 Total Phosphorus 92 Chloride 95 References Cited 104 APPENDIX 1 (bound and Ranked Loadings And Yield Data For All (101) Tributary Basins circulated In Southern Ontario, And For Point And Nonpoint Source Basins, separately) APPENDIX 2. Descriptive Statistics For 1968-1972 Data Set Of Table 1 107 APPENDIX 3 Descriptive Statistics By Year Per Lake Group Of Tributary Basins; Phosphorus, Chloride 109 iii LIST OF TABLES NUMBER PAGE NO. 1 Master Data Matrix 15 2 Task D Watersheds Used In Statistical Analyses 17 3 Grouping Of OMNR Land Classes Into Variables 20 4 Canada Land Inventory: Land Use Classes 21 5 Legislated Levels Of Phosphorus In Laundry Detergent, Ontario 28 6 Municipal Wastewater Effluent Standards, Ontario 28 7 Numbers And Sizes Of Basin Sets, Southern Ontario 31 8 Weighted Unit Area Discharge For Tributary Drainage 31 9 Annual Mean Concentration Of Phosphorus And Chloride For Tributary Drainage 35 10 Phosphorus/chloride Ratios For Nonpoint Source Basins 37 11 Point Source/Nonpoint Source Ratios Of Normalized Annual Means 38 12 Summary By Lake Of Potential Municipal And Atmospheric Contribution To River-mouth Loads Of Total Phosphorus, 1974 47 13 Source Contributions To Tributary Total Phosphorus Loads, 1974 48 14 Covariance In Variable Subsets: Variables And Abbreviations 53 15 Correlation Matrices For Concentration Data 54 16 Correlation Matrices For Yield Data 55 17 Correlation Matrices For Overburden-rural Variables 56 18 Correlation Matrices For Urban Variables 57 19 Variables And Abbreviations Used In Factor Analysis 60 20 Range Of Mean Annual Values For Water Quality Attributes For 101 Basin Mouths, 1968 - 1972 68 21 Discriminant Analysis: Overview 72 iv NUMBER PAGE NO. 22 Discriminant Analysis 73 23 Percent Of Basins In Common In Discriminant Analysis 76 24 Correlation Matrix-total Dissolved Solids: All Basins 83 25 Correlation Matrix-total Dissolved Solids: Nonpoint Source Basins 84 26 Correlation Matrix-suspended Solids: All Basins 85 27 Correlation Matrix-suspended Solids: Nonpoint Source Basins 86 28 Correlation Matrix-suspended Solids: All Basins 87 29 Correlation Matrix-total Nitrogen: All Basins 96 30 Correlation Matrix-total Nitrogen: Nonpoint Source Basins 97 31 Correlation Matrix-nitrate Nitrogen: All Basins 98 32 Correlation Matrix-nitrate Nitrogen: Nonpoint Source Basins 99 33 Correlation Matrix-total Phosphorus: All Basins 100 34 Correlation Matrix-total Phosphorus: Nonpoint Source Basins 101 35 Correlation Matrix-chloride: All Basins 102 36 Correlation Matrix-chloride: Nonpoint Source Basins 103 v LIST OF FIGURES NUMBER PAGE NO. 1 Tributary Drainage Area In Southern Ontario For Which Phosphorus Concentration Data Are Available For The Entire Period 1969 - 1974 29 2 Phosphorus And Chloride Trends For The Period 1969 - 1974. 34 3 Tributary Drainage To The Lower Great Lakes And Connecting Waterways For Which There Are Phosphorus Data, 1974 42 4 Plot Of Factor Loadings On First Two Principal Components Of All Independent Variables 61 5 Plot Of Factor Loadings On First Two Principal Components Of Non-urban Independent Variables 61 6 Plot Of Factor Loadings On First Two Principal Components Of Dependent Variables 62 7 Suspended Solids Concentration Vs % Cropland: Nonpoint Source Basins 88 8 Suspended Solids Concentration Vs % Cropland: Small Sand Basins 88 9 Suspended Solids Concentration Vs % Cropland: Small Clay Basins 89 10 Total Nitrogen Concentration Vs % Large Urban: Nonpoint Source Basins 89 11 Total Nitrogen Concentration Vs % Cropland: Nonpoint Source Basins 90 12 Total Phosphorus Concentration Vs %Cropland: Nonpoint Source Basins 94 13 Total Phosphorus Concentration Vs %Large Urban: Nonpoint Source Basins 94 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The many agencies which have provided data for this study are acknowledged within the body of the text. To them I extend my thanks for their co-operation since 1973 when I first became involved in the PLUARG study. Over the years, Mr. Robert Perkins has provided the systems and data processing expertise necessary to creatively manage the Task D data bank held at Queen's University. Mr. P. Hooper, graduate student in the Department of Mathematics, performed the factor analysis reported herein. In revising an earlier draft of this report (Ongley, 1977b) I have profited from comment and constructive criticism from numerous individuals. Inevitably, however, not all readers of a summary report of a lengthy investigative program will agree on analytic methods, data presentation, subject matter included/omitted, or even, for that matter, on general research philosophy for overview purposes. Justification of research strategy and defense of views expressed herein remain, therefore, my sole responsibility. For those who may use the material presented on the following pages I offer a piece of conventional though often sadly overlooked wisdom; statistical inference is no substitute for common sense and scientific insight. DISCLAIMER The study discussed in this document was carried out as part of the efforts of the Pollution From Land Use Activities Reference Group, an organization of the International Joint Commission, established under the Canada - U.S. Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1972. Funding was provided under several contracts from the Department of Fisheries and Environment, Canada. Findings and conclusions are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reference Group or its recommendations to the Commission. vii INTRODUCTION The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, with Annexes, Texts and Terms of Reference between the United States of America and Canada, signed at Ottawa on April 15, 1972, included a reference to study pollution in the Great Lakes System from agriculture, forestry, and other land use activities. The reference asked that the study assess whether the boundary waters of the Great Lakes System were being polluted by land drainage and, if so, where and to what extent and what remedial measures would provide improvements in controlling pollutants from land usage. Accordingly, the International Reference Group on Great Lakes Pollution from Land Use Activities was established in late 1972, and produced a detailed study plan (February, 1974) outlining an extensive study scheduled for completion by mid 1977 with a final report in July 1978. The Reference Group established four task groups to examine various aspects of the problem. These Task groups were directed to: Task A. To assess problems, management programs and research and to attempt to set priorities in relation to the best information now available on the effects of land use activities on water quality in boundary waters of the Great Lakes. Task B. Inventory of land use and land use practices, with emphasis on certain trends and projections to 1980 and, if possible, to 2020. Present land use report to be completed in 1974, report on trends to be completed in 1975. Task C. Intensive studies of a small number of representative watersheds, selected and conducted to permit some extrapolation of data to the entire Great Lakes basin and to relate contamination of water quality, which may be found at river mouths on the Great Lakes, to specific land uses and practices. Preparation of activities in 1974, intensive surveys in 1975 and 1976. Task D. Diagnosis of degree of impairment of water quality in the Great Lakes, including assessment of concentrations of contaminants of concern in sediments, fish and other aquatic resources. Activities during 1974-1976. The attempt to identify causality and to establish spatial and temporal trends within the PLUARG program has taken