Future Skills for the 2020s A New Hope FALL 2020 Team Nick Graham Pavel Luksha Shiv Kumar Shukla Pim van Geest Ekaterina Loshkareva Katerina Tatarenko Valeria Pavlova Author, Facilitation & Author & Project Author & Facilitation Author & Organisation Project Initiator & Project Organisation Project Organisation Organisation Teams Director Teams Teams Director Zineb Mouhyi Jessica Spencer-Keyse Dmitry Zabirov Henry Robben Facilitation Facilitation Facilitation Facilitation Ankita Verma Víctor García Cano Alina Snisarenko Inna Hotsiuk Research & Design Editor Design Organisation Teams Table of Contents Executive Summary 4 4. Sectoral overviews 86 Foreword 15 4.1 Manufacturing and Engineering 87 Editorials — Voices from Expert Community 16 4.2 Construction and Infrastructure 96 1. Introduction: Why Future Skills? 20 4.3 Transportation and Logistics 106 2. Key trends of the 2020s 33 4.4 Information and Communication Technology (ICT) & Digital 120 2.1 The age of great acceleration 34 4.5 Human-centred & Social Services 128 2.2 Megatrends 41 4.6 Creative Industries, Design and Art 140 2.3 Factors that drive change in skills demand 50 4.7 Agriculture & Ecology 150 Technological factors 50 5. Evolution of Education & Training 161 Socio-economic & political factors 57 5.1 General implications for Education & Training 162 3. World of skills: new stories emerging 61 5.2 Bringing change to Education & Training 177 3.1 Shifting paradigms of the global economy 65 6. What can you do? Stakeholder-specific strategies 186 3.2 A land of paradoxes: transformation of job / skill landscape 75 7. Conclusion: The time is now 196 3.3 Fundamental skill set: what is critical? 84 Annex 200 Acknowledgements 232 Participant Involvement 234 4 Executive Summary We are living in a uniquely pivotal moment in time. Structures that bind Technological advances have multiplied since the Industrial Revolution, our society and environment are rupturing, while new pathways are while social change and population growth give rise to ever more cross- opening for renewal and regeneration. We have a window of opportunity pollinating innovators. Each new generation can say the world is changing to get things right. Rather than focus on fear, how can we co-create a faster than ever before. As individuals and collectively, we now have future that is inspirational and hopeful? What are the skills needed today greater powers to change our environment and our futures. These to build a thriving future for all? The message from hundreds of experts powers will soon increase exponentially. Is this the most pivotal participating in this research is clear, we must: decade in our existence? ❖ Collaborate, adapt and transform In our world of increasing change, complexity and uncertainty, we know ❖ Embrace future-orientations and technological tools that skills of the past will not serve us today, or tomorrow. If 20th century ❖ Embody well-being of people and planet as our primary purpose market economies were capital-centred, and modern economies become human-centred, then in order to survive and thrive in the 21st century we This report is for Vocational Education & Training practitioners & policy should create systems that are life-centred and relational. These systems shapers, the WorldSkills movement, business people, academia, media explore our relationships with self, others, places, and other beings. and learners of all ages interested in trends and skills. The project aims ‘Preadaptive’ 3 development of skills ‘working with future’ concerns not only to identify the impact of transformation of skills across industry sectors, technological progress and its consequences, but also many other issues and explore the implications this has on Vocational Education & Training. related to sustainable development and ability to overcome global risks. This has been the focus of the authors team for a decade. Building on prior work in this space, 1 we invite you to explore the critical topic of Future This report focuses on factors and skills that are emerging in some Skills needed to thrive in the 2020s. We co-created ‘maps of the future’ shape today. To give insight to direction, timing and relative importance, with hundreds of experts across eight sectors, through explorative ‘Rapid we asked experts when changes will be significant in the sector i.e. Foresight’ workshops and surveys. 2 We invite you to the summary of their widespread impact, or clearly disrupting sector & transforming roles. insights here, and to dive deeper into sectoral details and collaboration This foresight 4 work helps us choose which pieces of potential futures opportunities in the full report. we’d like to keep, change or move away from. 1 E.g. Atlas of Emerging Jobs, Future Skills 1.0, Kazan Declaration 3 A Concept Derived from Evolutionary Biology 2 17 workshops with 302 attendees, 502 survey responses. Experts come from 46 countries and 4 have 6000+ years of sector-specific experience. They are leaders from Business, Academia, Our Rapid Foresight methodology was developed with partners such as Education & Training, NGO & Government officials. This research process took four months in 2020. The International Labour Organisation Executive Summary 5 Of the megatrends making the world a VUCA place (Volatile, Uncertain, Experts agreed in general that these scenarios are likely this decade: Complex, Ambiguous), Digitalisation is predicted to have the most impact on skills this decade. Other high impact megatrends are Globalisation, ❖ Demand for collaborative team skills will be greater than for Sustainability and Automation. COVID is accelerating change in all Individual personal skills elements of work and life today, although later in the decade other trends are predicted to have more impact on skills. There is clearly a need to get ❖ Customisation & personalisation will continue as we transition ahead of the curve on many of these snowballing megatrends before they away from 1-size-fits-all mass production and education systems avalanche us out of existence. Cyber/AI risks and environmental crises are potentially greater threats than COVID or recession 5. Self-creating ❖ Life-centred, transformative, regenerative & circular economies bots are one of many examples of turning points in power and our come to the fore this decade as we move away from ‘business responsibility this decade. Addressing these complex intertwined as usual’ extractive capital-centred consumerism challenges of our time requires new fundamental skill sets, holistic ethical application and governance. ❖ Demand for multi-disciplinary generalists will be greater than for narrow specialists. COVID restrictions, automation, job losses and structural employment shifts are some of the factors driving the trend towards multifunctional roles. How much impact will these Megatrends And to a lesser extent: have on Skills over the next 10 years? ❖ Algorithms will control people & behaviour more than people Digitalisation HIGH HIGH Automation control algorithms Globalisation HIGH MEDIUM Accelerating Change ❖ Skills gap will close Environmentalisation HIGH MEDIUM Demographic Changes ❖ National self-sufficiency will continue to grow, with borders closed, inward orientation, political & social disruption of global collaboration 5 WEF & Global Challenges Foundation Executive Summary 6 At a more detailed level, experts predict these factors to impact skills significantly across all sectors: Factor 2 Remote Work = New Norm Cybersecurity & Privacy Threats Clusters 0 Strict Hygiene / Biosecurity Industrial Internet: Big Data Analytics & IoT 2 COVID 0 ACCELERATED Unemployment & Reduced Spending 3D Printing TECHNOLOGY /SMART National Self Reliance & Domestic Supply Chains Supply Chain Transparency GENERAL Eco Materials & Production Modes Essential Mixed / Augmented / Virtual Reality Digital Currency replaces Cash AI prediction & Self-learning Machines Personalisation of Manufacturing Robotics & Cobots Nationalization of Platforms & Data New Human-computer Interfaces (Touch/Brain) Permanent Loss of Jobs due to Structural Shifts 2 0 Demographic Changes: Workforce becomes increasingly Senior 3 0 Total Digital Monitoring Executive Summary 7 Here we see #1 top influencing factor by sector. COVID-19 related factors are indeed shaping the beginning of the decade, while advancements in digitalisation and automation play crucial role towards the end of the decade. * Factor Top Factors affecting Skills Clusters COVID ACCELERATED ALL MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION & TRANSPORTATION HUMAN & SOCIAL CREATIVE AGRICULTURE ICT & DIGITAL & ENGINEERING INFRASTRUCTURE & LOGISTICS SERVICES INDUSTRIES & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY SECTORS /SMART 2 Resource GENERAL Strict Hygiene Strict Hygiene Strict Hygiene Strict Hygiene Remote Remote Remote shortages: 0 Soil Degradation, & Biosecurity & Biosecurity & Biosecurity & Biosecurity Working Working Working 2 Biodiversity Loss Rules Rules Rules Rules = New Norm = New Norm = New Norm SECTOR 0 & Malnutritious SPECIFIC Food Smart AI Prediction AI Prediction 2 Infastructure New Human- & Self-learning & Self-learning 0 Robotics Sensing Unmanned Automated Customised computer Machines / Machines / 3 Environmental & Cobots Production Vehicles Coding Services Interfaces Production & Digital 0 Lines (Touch, Brain) Lines Metrics Source: GEF Expert Surveys, n=350 * Descriptions and details of how this picture changes considerably for each sector can be found in Chapters 2, 4 & 5. Executive Summary 8 Emerging Paradigms of the 2020s 1. SMART From inert things to