WWW.INDIANEXPRESS.COM THE INDIAN EXPRESS,THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2020 @ieExplained #ExpressExplained DECISION EXPLAINED 2020 If there are questions of current or contemporary relevance that you 18 E BIHAR would like explained, please write to [email protected] LOKNITI-CSDS POST-POLL ANALYSIS FOR THE INDIAN EXPRESS Decoding the close Bihar verdict Held against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Bihar contest was also one of the closest in recent times. In this post-poll survey, Lokniti-CSDS unpacks the many aspects of NDA’s narrow victory over the Mahagathbandhan — caste & community, confidence in Modi, and women voting more for NDA However, to be able to make a bid for power, SHREYAS SARDESAI, the MGB needed an MY+. The Dalit vote came SANDEEP SHASTRI, CHART 1: LAST-MINUTE DECISIONS AND VOTING TRENDS CHART 2: VOTE TRANSFER BETWEEN JDU AND BJP CHART 3: VOTE TRANSFER to the MGB in the first two phases,and the al- SANJAY KUMAR liance with the Communist parties was a cru- Phase 1 saw the most last-minute decision-making; NDA's biggest gains Voted Voted Voted Voted BETWEEN RJD AND CONGRESS & SUHAS PALSHIKAR cial factor. In the last phase, Dalits seem to have came among those who decided at the last minute in phase 3 MGB NDA LJP Others Voted MGB swayed towards the NDA, according to our JDU-HAM contested seats AS THE counting of votes in Bihar continued HOW DID THEY VOTE? I MGB I NDA I Others INC contested seats data. Within the Dalit community, support for Traditional JDU-HAM supporters 14 75 5 6 through the day on Tuesday, the close nature I Decided choice on the day of voting Traditional INC supporters 84 the MGB was restricted to the Ravidas com- of the battle became increasingly obvious. The Traditional BJP supporters 7 55 13 25 munity and the Dusadhs. Musahars, however, 37% 27% 26% 38% 2% 27% Traditional RJD supporters 83 fact that the NDA managed a narrow victory BJP contested seats mostly voted for the NDA. The NDA also got became the clear headline. Yet, the verdict of RJD contested seats four-fifths of votes from Kurmis, the commu- the Bihar voter has multiple small stories that 32% 22% 22% Traditional JDU-HAM supporters 15 70 4 11 Traditional INC supporters 82 nity to which Nitish belongs, and nearly three- add up to the big picture. In this article, we 36% 36% 71% Traditional BJP supporters 6 75 2 17 Traditional RJD supporters 90 fifths of the EBC vote. hope to unpack these multiple strands. Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Note: Figures are percentages Note: Figures are percentages It may be useful to focus on the polarisa- Nitish Kumar was able to overcome the tion on religious lines, especially in the third inevitable fatigue of being in power for a phase. This is particularly true for all Hindu decade. This was partly on account of the CHART 4: MOST IMPORTANT VOTING ISSUE CHART 8: GENDER GAP IN VOTE communities (except for Yadavs) who con- Mahagatbandhan (MGB) not being seen as CHART 6: THE YOUTH VOTE CHOICE AMONG COMMUNITIES solidated behind the NDA in this phase. a viable option, and partly due to the positive 2015 2020 2020 Three-fourths of the Muslim vote in the fi- sentiment associated with the performance Post Poll Pre Poll Post Poll Contrary to the popular narrative, MGB did not end up getting any Dalit, EBC and upper caste women voted more nal phase went to the RJD-led alliance but in of the central government. The caste calculus Development 31% 29% 36% significant vote advantage among the youth for NDA than their male counterparts did the Seemanchal area it was the AIMIM that continued to offer important insights while Unemployment/jobs 9% 20% 20% I I I I I secured a high share of Muslim votes. MGB NDA LJP GDSF Others I MGB I NDA I Others the youth vote got divided on gender lines. Inflation 16% 11% 11% 4141 39 38 38 Assessment of Nitish & Modi 36 37 The Lokniti-CSDS Post poll, on which this 37 36 36 Poverty/hunger/financial problem 6% 6% 5% 35 Women 37 38 25 analysis is based, got the vote shares of the Education/school/college-related 2% 7% 3% In the run-up to the campaign, a lot of at- Men 38 36 26 two major alliances reasonably close. We 16 16 tention was focused on anti-incumbency 14 14 Condition of roads/bridges 3% 4% 2% 14 7 projected a vote share of 39% for the MGB 6 against the Nitish government. The survey in- 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 Government's work/performance - 4% 6% 3 Upper caste women 12 59 29 and 36% for the NDA with an error margin of dicates that there certainly was a significant +/-3%. Eventually, the NDA got 37.3% and the Electricity/water 7% 1% 1% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 Upper caste men 16 49 35 degree of fatigue with the government, but Others issues 16% 16% 13% years years years years years MGB 37.2%. All numbers reported here have Yadav women 82 5 13 no strong sentiment among voters to get rid been weighted by the final outcome. Can’t say/No response 10% 2% 3% of it. The jury was equally divided when it CHART 7: YOUTH VOTE BY GENDER Yadav men 84 6 10 came to whether the JD(U)-BJP government Late swing in last phase CHART 5: UNEMPLOYMENT VOTE Young men for MGB, young women for NDA Other OBC women 18 63 19 should get another chance (Chart 10). One of The post-poll survey indicates a substan- every 10 voters said that although the gov- 40 Other OBC men 18 59 23 39 39 39 39 tive last-minute swing in favour of the NDA. 36 34 ernment should return, it should be without NDA trailed MGB massively among the ‘unemployment vote’, but 33 This was a vital factor in explaining the direc- NDA won the ‘development vote’ comfortably Dalit women 24 33 43 Nitish at the helm. Such voters, the survey 18 17 tion of the final verdict. One of every four re- 12 12 found, eventually ended up voting for the 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 Dalit men 31 27 42 spondents said they decided their vote only on NDA’s vote lead over MGB 4 NDA. What is also important is that the MGB the day of voting. Close to half of them voted for Post-Poll Pre-Poll 18-29-year 30-39-year 18-29-year 30-39-year Muslim women 74 6 20 was unable to consolidate the sizeable chunk an NDA candidate. This trend was stronger in Among those for whom Unemployment -27% -1% -old men -old men -old women -old women Muslim men 79 5 16 (40%) of voters who wanted the government the last phase of voting, when more than two- was most important voting issue Note: Figures are percentages to go. Only two-thirds of them voted for the Note: Figures are percentages thirds of those who decided on the day of vot- Among those for whom Development +15% +27% MGB. The survey also found a majority of vot- ing, chose NDA candidates (Chart 1). ers quite positive in their overall assessment was most important voting issue Among the one-third who decided their CHART 10: DIVIDED OPINION ON WHETHER NITISH GOVERNMENT SHOULD REMAIN of the Nitish government’s performance, al- choice either after the declaration of the can- Among those for whom Inflation was -10% -17% though these satisfaction levels were much didates or the start of the campaign, it was most important voting issue I State govt. should get I State govt. should get another I State govt. shouldn't I No response below what was recorded in the previous the MGB that did better. This implies two another chance chance but without Nitish at the helm get another chance elections (Chart 11). The dissatisfaction with clear trends. The whirlwind campaign by CHART 9: HOW CASTES AND COMMUNITIES VOTED the Nitish government was not of a sufficient Tejashwi Yadav (247 rallies in 20 days) 60% 30% 52% 42% 10* 40% high intensity to dislodge it. helped the MGB put up a stiff fight against MGB NDA LJP GDSF Others The levels of satisfaction with the Modi- the NDA. The Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey Brahmin 15% 52% 7% 1% 25% 2010 10% 2015 6% 36% 2020 14% led central government were much higher in October had found the MGB trailing the Bhumihar 19% 51% 3% <1% 26% than with the Nitish-led state government NDA by quite a distance. Secondly, Prime (Chart 12). This may have helped the NDA off- Rajput 9% 55% 11% 4% 20% Note: Figures are percentages *This response was spontaneous and recorded as such only this time. Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies also seem Other Upper castes 16% 59% <1% <1 % 24% set some of the negative sentiment associ- to have made a difference in galvanising NDA ated with the state government. The survey Yadav 83% 5% 2% 3% 6% voters, particularly in phase 3, thus taking CHART 11: SATISFACTION WITH THE CHART 12: STRONG SATISFACTION WITH found that two of every 10 of those dissatis- the alliance past the majority mark. Kurmi 11% 81% 3% <1 % 5% fied with the Nitish government’s perform- Koeri 16% 51% 6% 8% 18% NITISH KUMAR GOVERNMENT MODI GOVERNMENT WAS HIGHER THAN 2015 ance, but satisfied with the Modi govern- Vote transfer within alliances Other OBC/EBC 18% 58% 4% 3% 18% 4 3 10 5 ment’s work, ended up voting for the NDA.