DESIGNING AND PREPARING INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDCs) KELLY LEVIN, DAVID RICH, YAMIL BONDUKI, MICHAEL COMSTOCK, DENNIS TIRPAK, HEATHER MCGRAY, IAN NOBLE, KATHLEEN MOGELGAARD, AND DAVID WASKOW WRI.ORG | UNDP.ORG TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Foreword 3 Executive Summary 7 Introduction PART I: OVERVIEW OF INDC PREPARATION AND DESIGN 13 CHAPTER I Background on INDCs 17 CHAPTER 2 How can Parties organize a national process to prepare an INDC? 23 CHAPTER 3 What data and analysis can inform an INDC? 31 CHAPTER 4 What form can the INDC take? 37 CHAPTER 5 How can Parties communicate their INDC transparently? PART II: TECHNICAL GUIDANCE 45 CHAPTER 6 What options exist for the design of an INDC for mitigation? 75 CHAPTER 7 What options exist for the design of an INDC for adaptation? 87 CHAPTER 8 What means can Parties use to implement the INDC? 94 Annexes 105 Glossary 107 Acronyms 109 References 113 Endnotes 116 Acknowledgments FOREWORD The commitment of Parties to develop Intended While the Paris climate agreement might not Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will address all actions necessary to prevent a climate form a key part of the climate agreement expected crisis, it must mark the turning point for how to be agreed in Paris in December 2015 at the 21st the global community commits to solutions and Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework concrete steps for global action. Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). INDCs will be foundational for the Paris As the impacts of climate change mount, the climate agreement, demonstrating countries’ urgency to take collective action has never been intent to decarbonize their economies and invest greater. Through coordinated global efforts, there in resilience. is still an opportunity to meet the two degree Celsius (2°C, or 3.6°F) goal necessary to avoid Countries’ INDCs could set in motion a virtuous dangerous climate change. Delaying action will and reinforcing set of decisions at the national be costly and can make achieving the 2°C goal and international level. With the right policies and almost impossible. incentives in place, private and public investment, new technologies, and greater innovation can The importance of tackling climate change is be unleashed to lower emissions, grow our clear. So is the opportunity that collective climate economies, eradicate poverty, and achieve action represents to drive sustainable development sustainable development for all. in all countries. It is our hope that this guidance helps Parties as Over the coming months, countries can take an they develop meaningful contributions toward important step toward realizing this opportunity solving one of the greatest global challenges of and putting the world on a sustainable path, our time, and supports countries to advance low through the development of strong INDCs and emissions and climate-resilient development. an ambitious global climate agreement at COP21. Helen Clark Andrew Steer Administrator President United Nations Development Programme World Resources Institute Designing and Preparing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) 1 2 WRI.org | UNDP.org EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the world marches toward the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December 2015, governments are determining what effort they will make to reduce emissions and address climate change. Countries are already in the midst of implementing commitments through 2020. Now they are turning their attention to preparing their commitments for the post-2020 period through pledges known as intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). Designing and Preparing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) 3 Atmospheric concentrations of key greenhouse gases guidance and process-related considerations. It (GHG) are higher now than over the past 800,000 walks Parties through the choices they will face years (Global Carbon Project 2014). As a result in preparing and designing their INDCs, laid out of human activity, such as fossil fuel burning and in five general steps: identifying the benefits of an land-use change, greenhouse gas emissions have INDC, organizing the INDC process, identifying increased significantly since the pre-industrial era. The data and analysis to inform the INDC, designing human influence on the climate system is clear, and the INDC, and communicating the INDC. it is very likely the dominant cause of recent observed warming (IPCC 2013b). Identifying the Benefits of an INDC There are significant domestic and interna- In recent decades, anthropogenic GHG emissions tional benefits that can be realized through the have contributed to warming of the atmosphere and development and implementation of an INDC. ocean, changes in the global water cycle, reductions in Collectively, INDCs offer an opportunity to set the snowfall and icepacks, sea level rise, and changes in world on track toward the 2°C goal. Developing some climate extremes, among other impacts (IPCC and implementing INDCs can demonstrate 2013b). To avoid catastrophic impacts in the future, political commitment and help realize non-climate the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate benefits associated with mitigating climate Change (UNFCCC) has adopted a goal of limiting change. INDC preparation and implementation global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. can also strengthen institutional and technical capacity, enhance policy integration, and inform As the key vehicle for governments to commu- key stakeholders. nicate internationally how they will cut emissions for the post-2020 period, INDCs allow countries to demonstrate leadership on addressing climate Organizing a National Process change. While climate change is a global challenge, to Prepare an INDC each country faces unique circumstances, including Parties are invited to communicate their INDC different emissions profiles and emissions- in advance of COP21 in December 2015. Given reduction opportunities, different risks from a the short timeframe available for the preparation changing climate, and different resource needs. of an INDC, building upon existing relevant Through their INDCs, countries can tailor their processes can help Parties prepare an INDC in contributions to their own national priorities, a timely manner. Ideally, INDC preparation can capabilities, and responsibilities. These individual help strengthen the integration of climate change measures can be the basis for collective action, and, into existing planning processes as well as if they are ambitious enough, set a path toward a strengthen institutional cooperation on climate low-carbon, climate-resilient future. change in a way that can be useful for future implementation. The process should also provide In 2014-2015, the United Nations Development legitimacy to the INDC. Programme (UNDP) and the UNFCCC convened a series of Regional Technical Dialogues on INDCs to While every national circumstance will be different, support countries in the process of preparing and several elements may prove helpful in preparing a putting forward their contributions. The countries that robust INDC through a consultative, efficient process: participated in those dialogues requested additional detailed guidance on INDC preparation; this guidance National leadership document responds to that request. It captures ideas ▪ shared during the dialogues, reflects the current state Clearly defined roles, responsibilities, of negotiations, and puts forward options for the ▪ and timeline preparation of INDCs based on research from recent literature and relevant UNFCCC documentation. Coordination ▪ Stakeholder engagement This document guides Parties on the preparation ▪ and design of INDCs, including detailed technical Ensuring the necessary resources and capacities ▪ 4 WRI.org | UNDP.org Identifying Data and Analysis Quantified outcomes can provide a better under- to Inform an INDC standing of future emissions reductions and emissions levels associated with the contributions, The development of an INDC should, in general, which, when aggregated, facilitate an assessment be informed by data and analysis regarding several of future global emissions.1 Quantified outcomes elements, including: also facilitate tracking of progress in achieving the INDC, offer more credibility when securing finance Internationally communicated pre-2020 and access to markets, and enhance comparability ▪ climate actions between Parties’ INDCs. Additionally, it is simpler to estimate the GHG effects of quantified outcomes National objectives and priorities ▪ than of actions. If a quantified outcome is chosen, it Current emissions profile of the country may also be beneficial for Parties to provide infor- ▪ mation on key actions that will be undertaken to Projected future emissions achieve the outcome, which can help other Parties ▪ understand how the contribution will be imple- Assessment of mitigation potential mented and achieved. ▪ Resource mobilization strategies ▪ At COP20, in December 2014, the Lima Call for Parties may already have sufficient data and Climate Action invited Parties to consider either analysis that can be used when preparing the communicating undertakings in adaptation or INDC, and collecting a significant amount of including an adaptation component in their INDCs. new data or conducting new analysis may not be Accordingly, some countries may choose to include necessary. Also, proxy data can help address data adaptation in their INDC. Developing countries may gaps that exist. furthermore choose