A CONSTELLATION ARCHITECTURE FOR MONITORING CARBON DIOXIDE AND METHANE FROM SPACE Prepared by the CEOS Atmospheric Composition Virtual Constellation Greenhouse Gas Team Version 1.2 – 11 November 2018 © 2018. All rights reserved Contributors: David Crisp1, Yasjka Meijer2, Rosemary Munro3, Kevin Bowman1, Abhishek Chatterjee4,5, David Baker6, Frederic Chevallier7, Ray Nassar8, Paul I. Palmer9, Anna Agusti-Panareda10, Jay Al-Saadi11, Yotam Ariel12. Sourish Basu13,14, Peter Bergamaschi15, Hartmut Boesch16, Philippe Bousquet7, Heinrich Bovensmann17, François-Marie Bréon7, Dominik Brunner18, Michael Buchwitz17, Francois Buisson19, John P. Burrows17, Andre Butz20, Philippe Ciais7, Cathy Clerbaux21, Paul Counet3, Cyril Crevoisier22, Sean Crowell23, Philip L. DeCola24, Carol Deniel25, Mark Dowell26, Richard Eckman11, David Edwards13, Gerhard Ehret27, Annmarie Eldering1, Richard Engelen10, Brendan Fisher1, Stephane Germain28, Janne Hakkarainen29, Ernest Hilsenrath30, Kenneth Holmlund3, Sander Houweling31,32, Haili Hu31, Daniel Jacob33, Greet Janssens-Maenhout15, Dylan Jones34, Denis Jouglet19, Fumie Kataoka35, Matthäus Kiel36, Susan S. Kulawik37, Akihiko Kuze38, Richard L. Lachance12, Ruediger Lang3, Jochen Landgraf 31, Junjie Liu1, Yi Liu39,40, Shamil Maksyutov41, Tsuneo Matsunaga41, Jason McKeever28, Berrien Moore23, Masakatsu Nakajima38, Vijay Natraj1, Robert R. Nelson42, Yosuke Niwa41, Tomohiro Oda4,5, Christopher W. O’Dell6, Leslie Ott5, Prabir Patra43, Steven Pawson5, Vivienne Payne1, Bernard Pinty26, Saroja M. Polavarapu8, Christian Retscher44, Robert Rosenberg1, Andrew Schuh6, Florian M. Schwandner45,1, Kei Shiomi38, Wenying Su11, Johanna Tamminen29, Thomas E. Taylor6, Pepijn Veefkind46, Ben Veihelmann2, Stephen Wofsy33, John Worden1, Debra Wunch34, Dongxu Yang39, Peng Zhang47, Claus Zehner44 1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA 2 European Space Agency, European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), Noordwijk, The Netherlands 3 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), Darmstadt, Germany 4 Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA 5 NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 6 Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA 7 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Saclay, Gifsur- Yvette, France. 8 Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada 9 School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK 10 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom 11 NASA Langley Research Center (LARC), Hampton, VA USA ii 12 Bluefield Technologies, Palo Alto, CA, USA 13 Program for Atmospheric Composition Remote Sensing and Prediction, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. 14 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA 15 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra (VA), Italy 16 Earth Observation Science, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK 17 Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany 18 Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Switzerland 19 Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse, France 20 Institut für Umweltphysik, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany 21 Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS)/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France 22 Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS/IPSL, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France 23 University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA 24 Sigma Space Corporation, Lanham, MD, USA 25 Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Paris, France 26 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, seconded to DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Copernicus Services, Brussels, Belgium 27 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Weßling, Germany 28 GHGSat, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 29 Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland 30 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center-Retired, Greenbelt, MD, USA 31 SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands 32 Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 33 School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA 34 Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada 35 Remote Sensing Technology Center of Japan (RESTEC), Tsukuba Space Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Tsukuba-city, Ibaraki, Japan iii 36 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA 37 Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Sonoma, CA, USA 38 Tsukuba Space Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Tsukuba-city, Ibaraki, Japan 39 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 40 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 41 Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 42 Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA 43 RCGC/IACE/ACMPT, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan 44 European Space Agency, European Space European Space Research Institute (ESRIN), Frascati, Italy 45 Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA 46 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands 47 National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration (NSMC/CMA), Beijing, China iv Contents Executive Summary: ........................................................................................................................ I 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 2. Estimating Emissions from Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 Measurements ................................ 8 2.1 In situ observations and models of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 distributions ................. 10 2.2 Space-based remote sensing observations of CO2 and CH4 concentrations .................. 12 2.2.1 CO2 and CH4 concentration estimates from thermal infrared observations ........... 12 2.2.2 Stratospheric CO2 and CH4 observations using solar occultation .......................... 13 2.2.3 CO2 and CH4 concentration estimates from observations of reflected sunlight ..... 13 2.2.4 Space-based CO2 and CH4 measurements of the lower troposphere ...................... 14 2.3 Retrieving CO2 and CH4 concentrations from space-based observations ...................... 15 2.4 Estimating CO2 and CH4 fluxes from space-based atmospheric observations .............. 16 2.5 Resolution and coverage requirements for CO2 and CH4 estimates .............................. 17 2.5.1 Factors limiting the resolution and coverage of space-based measurements ......... 17 2.5.2 Expanding ground-based in situ GHG networks to improve coverage .................. 19 2.6 Quantifying uncertainties in the space-based CO2 and CH4 estimates .......................... 19 2.6.1 Relating ground-based and space-based XCO2 and XCH4 estimates: TCCON ..... 20 2.7 Linking the GHG inventory, policy and atmospheric CO2 and CH4 communities ........ 21 3. Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurement Capabilities and Near-term Plans ....................... 24 3.1 ENVISAT SCIAMACHY .............................................................................................. 24 3.2 GOSAT TANSO-FTS .................................................................................................... 26 3.3 OCO-2 ............................................................................................................................ 29 3.4 TanSat ACGS ................................................................................................................. 31 3.5 Sentinel 5 Precursor TROPOMI .................................................................................... 33 3.6 Feng Yun-3D GAS and Feng Yun-3G GAS-2............................................................... 34 3.7 Gaofen-5 GMI ................................................................................................................ 36 3.8 GOSAT-2 TANSO-FTS-2 and GOSAT-3 ..................................................................... 36 3.9 OCO-3 ............................................................................................................................ 38 3.10 MicroCarb ................................................................................................................... 39 3.11 Sentinel 5 UVNS ........................................................................................................ 41 3.12 GeoCarb ...................................................................................................................... 42 3.13 MERLIN ..................................................................................................................... 44 3.14 Future mission concepts being studied ....................................................................... 45 v 4. The Transition from Science Missions to an Operational Constellation