The Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) is an independent policy research institution based in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. ESRF was established in 1994 to respond to the growing need for a research think tank with a mandate to conduct research for policy analysis and capacity building. The Foundation’s primary objectives are therefore to undertake policy-enhancing research, strengthen capabilities in policy analysis and decision making, as well as articulate and improve the understanding of policy options in government, the public sector, the donor community, and the growing private sector, and civil society. Vision: Advancing knowledge to serve the public, the government, CSOs, and the private sector through sound policy research, capacity development initiatives, and advocating good development management practices. Mission: POPULATION DYNAMICS To become a national and regional centre of excellence in policy research and capacity development for policy analysis and development management. AND SOCIAL POLICY Objectives: The overall objective of ESRF is to conduct research in economic and social policy areas and development management, and use its research outcomes to facilitate the country’s capacity for economic development and social advancement. By: Alfred Agwanda Otieno, Haidari K.R. Amani “This ESRF Discussion Paper is based on the output of the Tanzania Human Development Report 2017” and Ahmed Makbel THDR 2017: Background Paper No. 3 ESRF Discussion Paper 65 2016 www.esrftz.org POPULATION DYNAMICS AND SOCIAL POLICY By Alfred Agwanda Otieno, Haidari K.R. Amani and Ahmed Makbel THDR 2017: Background Paper No. 3 ISBN 978-9987-770-18-2 @ 2016 Economic and Social Research Foundation ESRF Discussion Paper No. 65 | i TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... IV LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... V LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................ VI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................ VII ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. IX 1.0 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................1 2.0 TRENDS POPULATION SIZE, GROWTH AND STRUCTURE ............................3 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................3 2.2 Population Size, Growth and Density ..............................................................3 2.2.1 Spatial Variations in Population Size and Growth ................................5 2.3 Age Structure .................................................................................................7 2.4 Summary of Key Issues and Implications for Social Policy ............................10 3.0 POPULATION DYNAMICS .................................................................................13 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................13 3.2 Fertility ..........................................................................................................13 3.2.1 Trends in Fertility Rates .....................................................................13 3.2.2 Spatial Differentials in Fertility Levels .................................................14 3.2.3 Trends in Spatial Variation in Fertility .................................................16 3.2.4 What Explains the Regional Variations in Fertility Levels? ..................18 3.2.5 Summary of Key Issues on Fertility Levels and Differentials ...............21 3.2.6 Summary of Key Issues and Implications for Social Policy ................22 3.3 Health and Mortality ......................................................................................25 3.3.1 Overall Mortality ................................................................................26 3.3.2 Life Expectancy at Birth ....................................................................27 3.3.3 Childhood Mortality ..........................................................................27 3.3.4 Adult Mortality ..................................................................................31 3.3.5 Maternal Mortality .............................................................................31 3.3.6 Spatial Variations in Maternal Morality ...............................................33 3.3.7 HIV/AIDS ..........................................................................................34 3.3.8 Summary of Key Issues and Implications for Social Policy ................35 3.4 Internal Migration ..........................................................................................36 3.4.1 Internal Migration Patterns ................................................................36 3.4.2 Key Issues on Internal Migration .......................................................39 ii | THDR 2017: Background Paper No. 3 3.5 Urbanization .................................................................................................39 3.5.1 Urbanization Dynamics, Trends and Patterns ....................................40 3.5.2 Regional Variations in Urbanization ...................................................41 3.5.3 Concluding Issues on Urbanization ...................................................42 3.6 Summary of Key Issues and Implications for Social Policy ............................43 4.0 YOUTH POPULATION, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND SOCIAL POLICY .................................................................................................47 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................47 4.2 Labour Participation Rates with Special Focus on Youth ...............................47 4.2.1 Youth Unemployment and Underemployment ...................................48 4.2.2 Other Indicators of Youth Employment .............................................49 4.2.3 Challenges and Opportunities for Youth Employment .......................52 4.3 Formal Sector Employment ..........................................................................50 4.4 Summary of Key Issues and Implications for Social Policy ............................52 5.0 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................54 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................54 5.2 Summary on Status of Population Dynamics and Social Policy .....................54 5.3 Conclusions ..................................................................................................57 5.4 Recommendations .......................................................................................57 GLOSSARY ...................................................................................................................59 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................67 ESRF Discussion Paper No. 65 | iii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Trends in population size, growth and density, 1967-2012 .............................4 Table 2.2: Trends in cropland, renewable water and forest cover per capita, 1975-2025 ..... 5 Table 2.3: Trends in proportion of the population by place of residence, 2012 census ....5 Table 2.4: Trends in regional population growth rates .....................................................7 Table 3.1: Trends in variation in TFR .............................................................................16 Table 3.2: Trends in fertility by region, 2002-2012 .........................................................17 Table 3.3: Results of linear regression between total fertility rates and female literacy, female HIV prevalence, per cent urban and under-5 mortality .......................19 Table 3.4: Adolescent fertility rates (births per 1000 women aged 15-19) .....................21 Table 3.5: Trends in life expectancy at birth, 2002-2012 ...............................................27 Table 3.6: Trends in infant and under-5 mortality rates by rural and urban areas, Tanzania, 2002 and 2012 Censuses Administrative Area ..............................28 Table 3.8: Trends in infant mortality rate by region (census data) ...................................30 Table 3.9: Probability of dying between age 15 and 60 (45q15) ....................................31 Table 3.10: Index of relative representation (IRR).............................................................37 Table 4.1: Labour force participation and unemployment rate (%) .................................48 Table 4.2: Youth long-term unemployment rates by sex and area, Tanzania, 2014 ........49 Table 4.3: Youth NEET by sex and area, Mainland Tanzania, 2014 ...............................50 Table 4.4: Sector employment ......................................................................................51 iv | THDR 2017: Background Paper No. 3 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Trends in population growth rates (per cent per annum) by place of residence.................................................................................6