VU Research Portal Evolutionary Modelling of Transitions to Sustainable Development Safarzynska, K.E. 2010 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) Safarzynska, K. E. (2010). Evolutionary Modelling of Transitions to Sustainable Development. Vrije Universiteit. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. E-mail address: [email protected] Download date: 30. Sep. 2021 Evolutionary Modelling of Transitions to Sustainable Development Karolina Safarzyńska VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT Evolutionary Modelling of Transitions to Sustainable Development ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad Doctor aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, op gezag van de rector magnificus prof.dr. L.M. Bouter, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van de promotiecommissie van de faculteit der Aard- en Levenswetenschappen op woensdag 20 januari 2010 om 13.45 uur in het auditorium van de universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105 door Karolina Ewa Safarzyńska geboren te Warschau, Polen promotor: prof.dr. J.C.J.M. van den Bergh Acknowledgments I would like to thank Professor Jeroen van den Bergh for his supervision, guidance and continuous support. His intellectual enthusiasm and extensive knowledge of various disciplines encouraged me to pursue evolutionary thinking. I am grateful to colleagues and friends who on various occasions commented on earlier drafts of chapters. I especially benefited from exchanges with Esben Andersen, Guszti Eiben, Julian García, Frank Geels, Niki Frantzeskaki, Koen Frenken, Witold Kwasnicki, André Lorentz, and Ulrich Witt. The influence of others was not less important for the final shape and contents of this thesis. I want to thank in particular: Wouter Botzen, Gaston Heimeriks, Dave Huitema, Diana Lucio-Arias, Rafael Gonzalez, Volker Nannen, Frédéric Reynès, Eleftheria Vasileiadou, Paolo Zeppini, and researchers participating in the KSI network for inspiring economic, evolutionary and complexity discussions. Friends in the IVM have been great company for the last three years. I want especially to mention Adriana, Constanze, Eszter, Jana, Sliman, Gustavo, Maria, Luke, Mairon and Julia. I am grateful to my parents for all their support: my mum for helping me with various issues and arrangements, and my dad for sending me on a weekly basis Polish literature and press. Last but not least, I want to thank Ramzi Mabsout for his emotional support and stimulating discussions during the writing of this thesis. He made me feel at home in Amsterdam. Amsterdam, October 2009 Table of Contents Acknowledgments................................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Background and approach............................................................................................................. 8 1.2 Transition studies........................................................................................................................ 10 1.3 Scope and outline of the thesis.................................................................................................... 14 2 Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks ................................. 17 2.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 17 2.2 Evolutionary modelling techniques ............................................................................................ 18 2.2.1 Evolutionary game theory and selection dynamics ............................................................. 18 2.2.2 Evolutionary computation ................................................................................................... 24 2.2.3 Multi-agent models.............................................................................................................. 27 2.2.4 Comparing methods............................................................................................................. 29 2.3 Building blocks of evolutionary-economic models .................................................................... 30 2.3.1 Diversity .............................................................................................................................. 30 2.3.2 Innovation............................................................................................................................ 32 2.3.3 Selection .............................................................................................................................. 35 2.3.4 Bounded rationality ............................................................................................................. 36 2.3.5 Diffusion.............................................................................................................................. 38 2.3.6 Path-dependence and lock-in............................................................................................... 40 2.3.7 Coevolution ......................................................................................................................... 42 2.3.8 Multi-level evolution and group selection........................................................................... 43 2.3.9 Mechanisms of growth ........................................................................................................ 45 2.4 Conclusions................................................................................................................................. 47 3 Demand-supply coevolution with multiple increasing returns: policy analysis for unlocking and system transitions ................................................................................................................................. 51 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 51 3.2 Technological change and coevolution of demand and supply................................................... 54 3.3 General framework ..................................................................................................................... 57 3.4 Model implementation ................................................................................................................ 59 3.4.1 Firms.................................................................................................................................... 60 3.4.2 Consumers ........................................................................................................................... 62 3.5 Results......................................................................................................................................... 65 3.5.1 Average model behaviour.................................................................................................... 65 3.5.2 Increasing returns on the demand side................................................................................. 67 3.5.3 Increasing returns on the supply side................................................................................... 68 3.5.4 Interaction between increasing returns on the demand and supply sides ............................ 69 3.5.5 Illustrative experiments ....................................................................................................... 69 3.6 Policy analysis ............................................................................................................................ 74 3.6.1 Policy instruments to unlock the market.............................................................................. 76 3.6.2 Policy instruments that reduce barriers to entry .................................................................. 79 3.7 Conclusions................................................................................................................................. 81 4 Economic evolution beyond replicator dynamics: a model of selection, mutation, and recombinant innovation.............................................................................................................................................. 85 4.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 85 4.2 Shortcomings of replicator dynamics.......................................................................................... 88 4.3 Replicator-mutator, quasi-species, and recombinant dynamics models ....................................