FABIAN REVIEW The quarterly magazine of the Fabian Society Winter 2015 / fabians.org.uk / £4.95 THE BATTLE for BRITAIN The Fabian Review previews a crucial year for the future shape of the nation. With Nick Forbes, Ivan Lewis, Jonathan Rutherford and Sarah Sackman p8 / Mary Riddell interviews the shadow chancellor John McDonnell p16 / Stephen Beer on what economic credibility means in a changed economy p24 FABIAN NEW YEAR CONFERENCE 2016 FACING THE FUTURE FEATURING Jeremy Corbyn MP Saturday 16 January 2016 #fab16 Institute of Education, London Visit www.fabians.org.uk for information and tickets Contents FABIAN REVIEW Volume 127—No. 4 Leader Andrew Harrop 2 Britain’s uncertain future Shortcuts Jemima Olchawski 3 A new deal for gender Barry Loveday 4 Plodding along Katie Ghose 4 Democratising devolution James Roberts 5 Powering ahead? Alice Gartland 6 A time to be brave Anna Turley 7 Make over Cover story Jonathan Rutherford 8 Rebuilding Labour Britain Ivan Lewis 11 Back together again Sarah Sackman 12 Equal aspiration Nick Forbes 14 True north Interview Mary Riddell 16 John McDonnell Comment Cat Smith 19 A country mile Features Richard Brooks 20 Let’s go to work Mark Rusling 22 The UKIP tipping point? Essay Stephen Beer 24 Credibility now 27 Fabian Society section FABIAN REVIEW FABIAN SOCIETY Editorial Finance and Operations Fabian Review is the quarterly journal of the 61 Petty France Editorial Director and Senior Director of Finance and Fabian Society. Like all publications of the Fabian London SW1H 9EU Research Fellow, Ed Wallis Operations, Phil Mutero Society, it represents not the collective view of 020 7227 4900 (main) Editorial and Communications the Society, but only the views of the individual 020 7976 7153 (fax) Manager, Lucy Snow Fabian Women’s Network writers. The responsibility of the Society is [email protected] Ivana Bartoletti, limited to approving its publications as worthy www.fabians.org.uk Research [email protected] of consideration within the Labour movement. Research Director, Olivia Bailey General Secretary, Senior Researcher, Cameron Tait Editor, Ed Wallis Andrew Harrop Cover illustration © Kenn Goodall / bykenn.com Membership Printed by DG3, London E14 9TE Events and Partnerships Membership Officer, Designed by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Events and Office Assistant, Giles Wright ISSN 1356 1812 Caitlin Griffith Otway Local Societies Officer, [email protected] Head of Partnerships Deborah Stoate and Events, Felicity Slater 1 / Volume 127—No. 4 Leader © Kenn Goodall / bykenn.com Britain’s uncertain future The great challenge for politics today is to bind us together, writes Andrew Harrop E HAVE ALWAYS been a divergent as well as election. But the decisions taken by the Conservatives since a united kingdom. But the divisions within May have made matters even worse. Post-election announce- WBritain are growing wider. On questions of our ments will raise the income of a household 10 per cent from place in the world and the future of our nation, on iden- the top of the income distribution by £1,600 in 2030. They tity, on belief, demography and culture, the differences will also push an extra 1.4 million people into poverty by that between us become ever more obvious. time, even with the introduction of the new minimum wage. The great challenge for our politics today is therefore The story is particularly striking when it comes to child to bind us together. Yet, on many of these fault-lines, poverty, partly because the cuts this year have singled politicians on left and right seem to be lost, in uncharted out lone parent families for pain. Before the election we territory, uncertain of the route to take. projected that the proportion of children in poverty would The greatest divide of all, however, is the gap between rise from 19 per cent to 24 per cent over the next 15 years. rich and poor. And here the political establishment is not Now the figure is 28 per cent. helpless or powerless: to a very large extent, it is the cause The picture is so bad that we even expect that child of the problem. poverty will rise when measured using a static benchmark, Yes, there are the anti-egalitarian currents of globali- which takes no account of rising living standards in soci- sation and automation. But the gap will mainly widen ety: in 2030 we project 800,000 more children than now because of political choices, according to new research will live with incomes below a threshold that we already carried out for the Fabian Review, which examines the view as unacceptable. prospects for economic inequality in 2030. Labour must shine a spotlight on this widening gulf The modelling, conducted by Landman Economics, and prove that an alternative is possible. After the party’s found that over the next 15 years tax and social security victory on tax credits, it must turn its sights to univer- policies will cause high incomes to rise far faster than low sal credit, which will slash the incomes of low earning incomes. On these projections, a household 10 per cent families just before the next election. But Labour must from the top of the income distribution will see its real also make a principled case, over the long-term, for a tax income rise by 25 per cent, but a household 10 per cent and benefit system that prevents widening inequality and from the bottom will see barely any change at all. shares rising national prosperity with poor children. There is nothing inevitable about this. In the 15 years These cuts are not inevitable, because they have come up to 2009 the incomes of rich and poor increased by the as this government has handed tens of billions of pounds same amount, because Labour chose to share the proceeds to high income families in tax breaks. The left must show of growth. By contrast, since 2010 Conservative and Liberal it is a question of political choice. Our politics can cleave Democrat politicians have designed policies that give to the people apart, or bind them together. F rich and take from the poor, by cutting benefits and income tax side by side. Read full details of the new Fabian analysis at Most of the projected increase in inequality is the result www.fabians.org.uk/the-greatest-divide/ of decisions that were already in place before the general 2 / Fabian Review Shortcuts possible. In fact, the new model of devolu- current childcare system is a patchwork tion risks going backwards on women’s of provision which doesn’t reflect the representation. working experiences of many low income Local government remains dominated by families. For many parents, and particularly men. Whilst there are a higher proportion of lone parents, the hours they work are female councillors than MPs (33 per cent vs constrained by the hours of childcare 29 per cent) fewer of these women are in de- they can find and afford. When childcare A NEW DEAL FOR GENDER cision making positions. The Treasury’s price responsibilities make work unviable or Devolution must be used to speed for devolution is a directly elected mayor, but unaffordable we know that it is most often only four of the 18 directly elected mayors in women who drop out of the labour market up the pace of change on gender England are women. or restrict their hours. This is bad for them equality—Jemima Olchawski In many respects the powers of these but also for our economy: we are failing to new mayors are fairly limited, with the get the most out of the talent and potential constituent boroughs’ leaders holding of too many women. important vetoes. But only 15 per cent of There’s often scepticism about whether English council leaders are women. The Locally-grown economies have promises of localism made in opposition Greater Manchester Combined Authority will be delivered once in power. This time, – the trail blazer for devolution – has 10 an opportunity to develop jobs it turns out the Conservatives really meant it. borough members and only one is led by a and industries that allow those Following the announcement of the Greater woman. Westminster is becoming (painfully disadvantaged by the current Manchester devolution deal we have seen slowly) less male with a third of cabinet model to thrive local and regional government across the members now female and the highest country stepping forward to take on more ever proportion of female MPs. But these powers. We live, it appears, in a new era women won’t be making many of the most But childcare is only part of the answer of localism. important decisions about skills, business here. As people live longer and social care What the ‘northern powerhouse’ will growth and service delivery anymore – budgets are squeezed, caring for ageing mean for how services are run, how public (mostly) men in local government will be. relatives as well as our children will increas- money is spent, and how people vote in Just as important as who holds power is ingly become a fact of life for many more the north, is currently the subject of great the kind of economies these new regions women and men. political debate. But we also need to reflect create. Many of the deals focus heavily on If we continue with the current models on what the new wave of devolution will devolved skills funding, and so devolved of work we risk seeing growing numbers mean for women. As new institutions authorities need to seize this opportunity of people drop out as they are unable to are created and local politicians work to to break down the highly segregated skills balance personal responsibilities with work.