HEIDELBERG INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH at the Department of Political Science, University of Heidelberg CONFLICT BAROMETER 2010 Crises - Wars - Coups d’Etat´ Negotiations - Mediations - Peace Settlements 19th ANNUAL CONFLICT ANALYSIS [OLOPNOLZ[PU[LUZP[` VULJVUÅPJ[HYLTHYRLKHJJVYKPUN[V The countries affected by more than 9 The Americas - severe crises 8 7 Sub-Saharan Africa - wars 6 5 4 3 Sub-Saharan Africa - severe crises 2 1 Europe - severe crises 5 4 :\KHU+HYM\Y 9\ZZPH0ZSHTPZ[TPSP[HU[Z+HNLZ[HU *VSVTIPH-(9* :VTHSPH0ZSHTPZ[NYV\WZ <NHUKH39( 5PNLYPHMHYTLYZWHZ[VYHSPZ[Z ,[OPVWPH653-6NHKLU +9*VUNV,U`LSL 9\ZZPH0ZSHTPZ[TPSP[HU[Z0UN\ZOL[PH Name S W e ar v er - conflict item(s) e c r isis - - regional predominance regional regional predominance, resources predominance, regional - system/ideology, regional predominance, resources predominance, regional system/ideology, - regional predominance regional - sec - system/ideology, national power - system/ideology, ession, resources - re 10 gional predominance, resources gional predominance, - secession, system/ideo. - se cession, system/ideology 9 +LJK,QWHQVLW\9LROHQW&RQñLFWVLQ system/ideology 18 predominance regional 17 predominance regional 16 15 14 13 12 11 Asia and Oceania - severe crises 10 The Americas - wars 2`YN`aZ[HU2`YN`a<aILRZ ;OHPSHUK4\ZSPTZLWHYH[PZ[ZZV\[OLYUIVYKLYWYV]PUJLZ 7HRPZ[HU;;73L1::7]HYPV\ZYLSPNPV\ZNYV\WZ 7HRPZ[HU;HSPIHU]HYPV\Z[YPILZ 7HRPZ[HU4VOHQPYZ:PUKOPZ7HRO[\UZ)HSVJO 4`HUTHY25<253(2HYLU:[H[L2H`HO:[H[L 0UKPH5H_HSP[LZ 0UKPH1L4L[HS2HZOTPY 4L_PJVKY\NJHY[LSZ - system/ideology - re gional predominance, resources gional predominance, - secession 20 - r 5 egional predominance, resources egional predominance, - system/ideology, system/ideology, 3 8 22 - regional predominance regional - s 6 - ecession system/ideology, system/ideology, 24 2 28 4 23 7 21 - 1 secession, 25 26 15 27 17 16 13 19 28 27 The Middle East and Maghreb - wars 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 The Middle East and Maghreb - severe crises 19 Asia and Oceania - wars 11 0YHXTPSP[HU[NYV\WZ (MNOHUPZ[HU;HSPIHUL[HS @LTLU(8(7 @LTLUHS/V\[OPYLILSZ ;\YRL`722265.9(.,32\YKPZOHYLHZ :H\KP(YHIPHHS/V\[OPYLILSZ 0ZYHLS/HTHZL[HS7HSLZ[PUL 0YHX(800:0 (SNLYPH(804 7HRPZ[HU]HYPV\Z0ZSHTPZ[TPSP[HU[Z 12 14 - s - - system/ideology, national power - system/ideology, system/ideology, national power system/ideology, ystem/ideology, national power ystem/ideology, 18 - system/ideology, national power system/ideology, - system/ideology, regional predominance regional - system/ideology, - system/ideology, national power system/ideology, - secession, system/ideology - regional predominance - regional - syste m/ideology, national power m/ideology, - autonomy Global Conflict Panorama 1 Global Conflict Panorama Global Development Kyrgyzstan (Uzbeks - Kyrgyz)]. The total number of con- flicts decreased by five, as four new conflicts emerged In 2010, a total of 363 conflicts were observed. Among in 2010, while nine conflicts had ended in 2009. In ad- these were six wars and 22 severe crises, amounting dition, two conflicts were considered to have ended in to 28 highly-violent conflicts, i.e. conflicts fought out 2010 so far. Two of the new conflicts arose in Asia and with the use of massive violence. Sporadic violence oc- Oceania, one of which turned violent in the very year curred in 126 conflicts, which were therefore classified of its beginning [! Indonesia (Lintas Tanzim)]. One as crises. The remaining 209 conflicts were conducted new conflict emerged in the Americas, where also the without the use of violent force, with 109 conflicts being two conflicts considered to have ended in 2010 were lo- classified as latent and 100 as manifest conflicts. Com- cated. Both of them were inter-state disputes, between pared to the previous year, the total number of conflicts Uruguay and Argentina as well as Paraguay and Bolivia, decreased slightly from 368 to 363. While the number respectively. The territorial dispute between Paraguay of crises rose from 110 to 126, the number of highly- and Bolivia concerning the northern part of the Gran violent conflicts sunk considerably from 25 severe crises Chaco region had officially been settled in 2009. How- and eight wars, i.e. 33 highly violent conflicts, in 2009, ever, Bolivia’s purchase of military equipment led to re- to 22 severe crises and six wars, i.e. 28 highly-violent newed tensions. After Bolivia had emphasized its in- conflicts, in 2010. tention to strengthen border control and fight drug traf- ficking, in March 2010, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, agreed to revitalize a strategic alliance. On August 15, Global Conflict Intensities in 2010 compared to the three presidents signed an agreement on regional 2009 integration. In Asia and Oceania, six conflicts had al- 150 2009 ready ended in 2009, as the LTTE’s military defeat had 140 2010 130 126 put an end to its disputes with various Sri Lankan mili- 118 120 109 110 tant groups. Another dispute had ended in Sub-Saharan 110 107 100 100 Africa in 2009, as the northern Somali region of Maakhir 90 ceased to consider itself an own state independent from 80 70 the autonomous region of Puntland. In the Middle East 60 and Maghreb, the 2009 elections in Mauretania finally le- number of conflicts 50 40 galized the government that had taken power in a coup 30 25 22 in 2008. In Europe, the territorial dispute between Ro- 20 8 10 6 mania and the Ukraine was settled by an ICJ ruling in 0 latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war 2009. In order to reveal a long-term trend, the five intensity lev- els were categorized into three groups: The two non- Four of the six wars had already been fought out on violent levels are summarized as low intensity conflicts this level of intensity in the previous years: Afghanistan and severe crises together with wars as conflicts of (Taliban) and Somalia (Islamist groups), Iraq (militant groups), and Pakistan (various Islamist militants). The remaining two wars, Mexico (drug cartels) and Sudan (Darfur), had been classified as severe crises in 2009. Table of Contents Sudan (Darfur) had already been fought out as a war Global Conflict Panorama from 2004 to 2008. Therefore, all six wars indicated Global Development 1 a hardening and self-perpetuation of massive violence. Analysis intrastate - interstate 2 Four of last year’s eight wars were not conducted on Regional Development 2 this level of intensity again: Violence ceased in the con- Dynamics within individual Conflicts 3 Conflict Items 3 flict between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Coups d’Etat´ 4 and the government in Sri Lanka, whereas the conflicts Terrorism 5 between Hamas and the Israeli government, between al-Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government, and be- Measures of Conflict Resolution Negotiations and Treaties 5 tween Taliban and tribal militias in Pakistan, respectively, International Organizations 6 deescalated slightly to severe crises. The number of se- Autoritative Decisions by the ICJ 8 vere crises dropped from 25 to 22, as two of last year’s severe crises escalated to wars (see above) in 2010, Regions while ten deescalated to crises, i.e. violence abated, Europe 9 Sub-Saharan Africa 23 but did not cease. The remaining 13 severe crises of The Americas 42 2009 remained on the same level of intensity. Of the Asia and Oceania 52 remaining nine of this year’s severe crises, three - al- The Middle East and Maghreb 74 ready mentioned above - had been wars in 2009, while five had escalated from crises to severe crises, and one Methodology 88 had turned from a manifest conflict to a severe crises [! Imprint 89 2 Conflict Barometer 2010 high intensity, while crises for this purpose are labelled medium intensity conflicts. The below graph also dis- plays the total number of conflicts observed. As the Number of Intra- and Interstate Conflicts in 2010 by graph shows, the number of conflicts observed per year Intensity Level rose more or less continuously from 83 in 1945 to 363 140 interstate 130 intrastate in 2010. However, this increase must partly be consid- 120 120 ered as a statistical artifact, as the scope and quality 110 of available information on current conflicts augmented 100 considerably in recent years. Most of the observed con- 90 80 flicts were conflicts of low-intensity. With regard to high- 70 64 57 intensity conflicts, their number increased continuously 60 52 50 number of conflicts and - for the most part - regularly until 1992, when an 40 36 all-time high was reached with 51 high-intensity con- 30 22 flicts, shortly after the decline of the Soviet Union and 20 10 6 6 0000 the breakup of Yugoslavia. Afterwards, their number 0 dropped sharply, but then rose again until it reached 45 latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war in 2003. The last seven years were marked by an oscil- iation of highly-violent conflicts between 31 and 41, i.e. The sixth interstate crisis erupted between Thailand and on a medium level, as well as by a sharp increase in the Myanmar. None of the 28 highly-violent conflicts were number of crises. While highly-violent conflicts dropped fought out between states. to 28 in 2010, the number of crises reached an all-time The long-term analysis, for which both high-intensity cat- high with 126. egories, i.e. severe crisis and war, were summarized in one group, clearly showed that the intrastate predomi- nance among the highly violent conflicts was observable Global Conflicts of low, medium and high Intensity from the very beginning of the examination period. 1945 to 2010 low intensity 400 medium intensity Intra- and Interstate Conflicts of high