Integrated Resource Plan 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 2018-2021 Platte River Power Authority 1 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Table of contents 1 Executive summary 8 2 Overview History 16 Governance 16 Vision, mission, values 17 3 IRP background 3.1 Why do an IRP now? 19 3.2 Developments since the last IRP 20 3.3 Resource Diversification Policy 22 3.4 Efforts to join a market and development of JDA 22 3.5 Studies conducted 24 3.6 Objectives 24 3.7 Modeling tool 24 4 Five-year action plan 4.1 Roundhouse wind integration 25 4.2 Rawhide Prairie Solar and battery storage integration 25 4.3 New solar project completion and integration 26 4.4 Western Energy Imbalance Market 26 4.5 Rawhide coal flexibility enhancement 26 4.6 Craig coal retirement readiness 26 4.7 DER strategy development and execution 27 5 Community engagement 5.1 Community listening sessions 28 5.2 Focus group meetings 29 5.3 IRP microsite 29 5.4 Formal customer surveys 30 5.5 Inquiries and input 30 5.6 Stakeholder outreach 31 5.7 Stakeholder engagement 31 5.8 Public engagement outcome and results 32 Platte River Power Authority Platte River Power Authority 2 3 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 6 IRP demand-side assumptions 8 Reliability planning and future portfolios 6.1 Load forecast 33 8.1 System reliability 68 6.2 Load forecast methodology 34 8.1.1 Reliability modeling with planning reserve margin 69 6.3 Forecast drivers 34 8.1.2 Reliability contribution of renewable and storage resources 70 6.3.1 Degree days 36 8.2 Need for new resources 73 6.3.2 Population 37 8.3 Development of future portfolios 76 6.3.3 Single-family homes, window to central AC conversion 38 8.4 Portfolio 1 - continuity (P1) 78 6.3.4 Distributed solar 39 8.5 Portfolio 2 - zero coal (P2) 79 6.3.5 Electric vehicles 40 8.6 Portfolio 3 - zero carbon (P3) 80 6.4 Energy efficiency/conservation trend 42 8.7 Portfolio 4 - integrated utilities (P4) 83 6.5 Load forecast 42 6.6 Distributed energy resources 44 9 IRP results 6.7 Existing DER programs and activities 44 9.1 Portfolio expansion plans 86 6.7.1 Energy efficiency 45 9.2 Portfolio costs 91 6.7.2 Demand response 47 9.3 Portfolio wholesale rates 92 6.7.3 Distributed generation 47 9.4 Portfolio CO2 emissions 95 6.7.4 Beneficial electrification 48 9.4.1 CO2 reduction relative to 2005 actual emissions 95 6.7.5 Distributed energy storage 49 9.4.2 Percent renewable generation supplied 96 6.7.6 Software for DER integration 49 9.4.3 Colorado CO2 legislation; HB19-1261 and SB19-236 97 6.8 Future DER programs 50 9.5 Social cost of carbon sensitivity 98 6.8.1 Energy efficiency potential 50 9.5.1 CO2 cost sensitivity 100 6.8.2 Demand response potential 52 9.5.2 Gas price sensitivity 102 6.9 DER strategy 54 7 IRP supply-side assumptions 10 Recommendation 104 7.1 Inflation and discount rate 55 11 Appendices 7.2 Regional import/export limits 55 7.3 JDA modeling 56 A: IRP checklist for WAPA 106 7.4 Commodity price projections 56 B: IRP studies 108 7.4.1 Natural gas prices 57 C: DER programs 112 7.4.2 Regional power prices 58 D: Aurora model 115 7.4.3 Coal prices 59 E: P4 assumptions 116 7.4.4 Carbon prices 60 7.5 Supply-side generation resources 60 7.5.1 New resource screening 61 7.5.2 New wind resources 62 7.5.3 New solar resources 63 7.5.4 New battery storage 64 7.5.5 New thermal generation resources 65 7.5.6 Platte River existing resources 66 Platte River Power Authority Platte River Power Authority 4 5 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 2020 Integrated Resource Plan List of figures 1-1 Wholesale rate projections for the four portfolios 14 8-6 Future energy balance with only existing resources 74 1-2 CO2 reduction vs. 2005 emissions 14 8-7 Future capacity balance without carbon emitting resources 75 8-8 Future energy balance without carbon emitting resources 75 6-1 Historical annual energy demand 35 8-9 January 2018 wind and solar generation profile - the dark calm 81 6-2 Historical annual peak demand 35 8-10 P4 renewables and battery costs relative to P1-P3 83 6-3 Degree days - historical and forecast 36 8-11 DER impact on peak demand forecast 83 6-4 Fort Collins population - historical and forecast 37 8-12 DER impact on energy forecast 84 6-5 Air conditioning penetration forecast 38 6-6 Distributed solar installed capacity forecast 39 9-1 Expansion plans for the four portfolios 87 6-7 Total number of EVs forecast 40 9-2 Generation costs for the four portfolios 91 6-8 EVs annual energy consumption 41 9-3 Generation costs for P1, P2 and P4 92 6-9 EVs contribution to peak demand 41 9-4 Wholesale rate projections for the four portfolios 93 6-10 Annual residential energy use 42 9-5 Wholesale rate comparison for the four portfolios 94 6-11 Energy forecast with confidence intervals 43 9-6 CO2 reduction vs. 2005 total stack emissions 95 6-12 Peak demand forecast with confidence intervals 43 9-7 Noncarbon generation as percentage of community load 96 6-13 Historical EE programs - cumulative investments 45 9-8 Noncarbon generation as percentage of community load with 150 MW new solar 97 6-14 Historical EE programs - cumulative energy savings 46 9-9 Expansion plan comparison - P2 and SCC sensitivity 99 6-15 Historical EE programs - cumulative peak demand savings 46 9-10 Generation cost comparision - P2 and SCC sensitivity 100 6-16 Distributed solar - historical capacity additions 48 9-11 Noncarbon generation as percent of community load - P2 and SCC sensitivity 101 6-17 Future EE programs - cumulative energy savings 51 9-12 CO2 cost sensitivities 101 6-18 Future EE programs - cumulative utility costs 52 9-13 Gas price forecast 102 6-19 Future demand response programs - cumulative peak demand savings 53 9-14 Gas price sensitivities 103 6-20 Future demand response programs - cumulative utility costs 53 7-1 Gas price forecast at CIG 57 7-2 Power price projections in Platte River area 58 7-3 Delivered coal price 59 7-4 Carbon price projections 60 7-5 New wind and solar resource costs 63 7-6 Battery storage costs 64 7-7 New thermal generation resource data 65 7-8 Committed power transactions data 66 7-9 Existing generating resource data 67 8-1 Hourly demand profiles 69 8-2 ELCC for Platte River system - example 1 70 8-3 ELCC for Platte River system - example 2 71 8-4 ELCC of renewable resources and battery storage 72 8-5 Future capacity balance with only existing resources 73 Platte River Power Authority Platte River Power Authority 6 7 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Executive summary Platte River Power Authority (or Platte River) Each of these portfolios is a 20-year plan demand reduction, long term impact is hard update its long-range plan. is pleased to present its 2020 Integrated starting in 2021, integrating both demand-side to predict. Platte River will update its long term Development of this IRP relies on several Resource Plan (or IRP). This IRP builds on and supply-side resources to reliably meet electricity demand forecast and modify supply assumptions and forecasts made by staff and the significant progress made by Platte River the owner communities’ electricity needs plans according to the changes brought about studies conducted by outside consultants. On by adding or committing to almost 400 MW in a least cost manner. This IRP should be by this pandemic in future power supply plans. the demand side, these assumptions include noncarbon generation in 2020. This plan viewed as the continuation of Platte River’s Platte River is not required to complete its next forecasts for anticipated energy consumption presents a potential roadmap to progressing journey toward achieving the goal of a 100% IRP until 2021 but several recent developments and the level of distributed energy resources toward the Resource Diversification Policy noncarbon resource mix, in line with the necessitated accelerating the process. First (DERs), mainly distributed solar, electric goal of a 100% noncarbon resource mix. This direction of the board and the goals of Platte and foremost is the board’s adoption of the vehicles (EVs) and energy efficiency policy was adopted by Platte River’s Board River's owner communities of Estes Park, Fort Resource Diversification Policy. Second, penetration. On the supply side, the main of Directors (board) in 2018 to proactively Collins, Longmont and Loveland. The key value considerable investments in renewable energy assumptions include: forecasts of natural gas, work toward the goal of achieving a 100% proposition of this IRP is the directional view it have been made, including the 225 MW coal, and electricity market prices; CO2 price; noncarbon resource mix by 2030 while provides for future decisions. maintaining three pillars of safely providing Roundhouse Wind Energy Project, the 22 MW costs for new thermal resources; costs for new reliable, environmentally responsible and An IRP is a snapshot of a future path based Rawhide Prairie Solar project that came online renewable resources; and the cost of battery financially sustainable energy and services. on the assumptions at a particular point in in 2020 and the 50-150 MW of solar being storage.