community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ PENDING PUBLIC RELEASE/APPROVAL - QUESTIONS: 757-501-6236 Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 9 Issue #10 OEWATCH October 2019 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT EURASIA 28 New Chinese Aircraft Carrier to Carry 50 Percent More 3 Sinking the Armata? Fighters AFRICA 4 Where is Strelkov Aiming? 30 China and Kazakhstan Upgrade Ties 59 Urban Deployment Reveals South African Military Deficiencies 5 Northern and Eastern Military Districts Get S-300V4 Air 32 China and Russia Sign Heavy Helicopter Deal 60 South Africa’s Xenophobic Violence: Foreigners as Scapegoats Defense Systems 34 China Reports the Launch of Unmanned ‘Mini-Aegis-Class for Failing Economy 7 Russian Ground Forces’ Air Defense: A Look At Russia’s Destroyer’ 61 Somalia’s Newest Military Commander Also Its Youngest Threat-Based Military 35 Contrasting Chinese and Foreign Media Accounts on 62 African Union Raises Concerns Over Foreign Military Bases in 8 The Modernization of Russian Coastal Defense Missiles Xinjiang Africa 10 Mines Seen as Key Capabilities for Russian Naval and Coastal 37 Papuans Hope for Independence, but is it Possible? 63 Regional Rivalries Heat Up as AMISOM Leaves Somalia Defense 39 Another Counter-Terrorism Operation in Palu, Indonesia 64 China’s Investment in African Aviation 12 Russia Developing On-Orbit Fueling Technologies 40 India to Create New Chief of Defence Staff Position 65 International Connections to Guinea-Bissau Drug Trafficking 13 Public Protests and “Hybrid War” 66 Borno Governor Criticizes New Military Strategy 14 Serving in the Presidential Regiment MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA 67 Mali and Burkina Faso Consider Counter-Terrorism Cooperation 15 Center 2019: More than a Military Exercise 42 Egypt’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 68 Bad Roads in Mali Lead to More Civil Unrest 16 Land Ho! Discovery of New Lands in the Arctic 43 Saudi Arabia Moves Forward on Artificial Intelligence 70 Doctors Without Borders Closes Local Clinic in Southeastern 17 Pacific Fleet Strategic Nuclear Augmentation 44 Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia: Competition in the Virtual Domain Niger 18 Tactical Shooting: Integral Part Of Russian Combat Training 45 Signs of Restructuring in the Turkish Armed Forces 19 The Biggest-Yet Arctic Riverine Exercise 47 Turkish Rhetoric On Acquiring Russian Fighter Jets LATIN AMERICA 20 China’s Growing Interest in Ukraine: A Window of 48 Turkish Rhetoric On Acquiring Nuclear Warheads 71 Combination of the Forms of Struggle Opportunity or a Point of Concern? 49 Turkish and Qatari Military Cooperation 72 Bolivarian “Provocations” 21 A Change in Georgia’s Response to Russia’s “Borderization”? 50 Potential Turkish, Russian and Chinese Cooperation in the 73 Colombia’s Gulf Clan 22 Bilateral Security Cooperation in Central Asia Eastern Mediterranean 74 ELN Update 51 Egypt and Russia Deepening Military Cooperation 75 Argentina and Paraguay Designate Hamas and Hezbollah as INDO-PACIFIC 53 The SDF’s Meeting on Security Assessment and Future of Terrorist Organizations 23 China and Pakistan Hold 8th “Shaheen” Joint Air Exercise Syria 77 Breeding Narco Pilots In Bolivia 24 Tank Biathlons Help PLA Make Improvements to Type 54 Israel: Iran’s Military Entrenchment in Iraq Poses Threat 78 Chinese Mafia Operating in Argentina 96-Series MBTs 56 Iran: Khamenei Speaks on Kashmir 79 China’s Military Equipment Donations to Peru 25 China Debuts New Stealth Target Drone at Russian Defense 57 Iran: Armed Forces Ready to Take Over National Intranet 81 Honduran Military Discovers Coca Plantation with 40,000 Plants Exhibition Project 27 PLA Air Force Pilots Cross-Train as Infantry Platoon Leaders 58 Iran: Interior Ministry says Protest Frequency Declining approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission OEWATCH is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and Foreign News & Perspectives Assess the conditions of the Operational of the Operational Environment Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO has conducted open source research Volume 9 | Issue 10 October | 2019 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or Regional Analysts and unconsidered. Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch Eurasia Chuck Bartles provides translated selections with Ray Finch background from a diverse range Les Grau of foreign media that our analysts Alla Hurska Matthew Stein and expert contributors believe will give security professionals an added Indo-Pacific Andrew Hartnett dimension to their critical thinking Cindy Hurst about the Operational Environment. Matthew Stein Peter Wood Jacob Zenn The views expressed in each article are those of Middle East, North Africa Ihsan Gündüz the author and do not represent the official policy or Karen Kaya position of the Department of the Army, Department Michael Rubin of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Lucas Winter information does not imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Government to provide any Africa Dodge Billingsley additional information on any topic presented herein. Robert Feldman The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute Jacob Zenn endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site or the information, products, or services contained Latin America Geoff Demarest therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing Zachary Fesen hyperlinks. Brenda Fiegel The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ tradoc-g2/fmso/. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Karen Kaya Design Editor Thomas Tolare ON THE COVER: A docked Russian Soyuz spacecraft Source: NASA via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Expedition_27_Soyuz_ TMA-20_spacecraft.jpg, Public Domain EURASIA Sinking the Armata? OE Watch Commentary: When the Kremlin first included its new T-14 Armata tank in the Victory Day parade in 2015, many observers expressed dismay at the country’s seeming facility in transforming a technological concept into actual production. They suggested that the Kremlin’s ability to concentrate resources on developing hi-tech military armaments could significantly alter any future balance of forces. Over the past couple years, however, some of these concerns have dissipated. While the original plan called for the production of 2,300 next generation, Armata-class systems (T-14 tank, T-15 BMP and T-16 armored recovery vehicle), these figures have been scaled down to 132 Armata-class vehicles by 2021. Yet even this reduced target may now be out of reach. As the brief excerpt from the weekly Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (VPK) points out, production problems have further delayed hitting the planned production target (44 vehicles) in 2019. The article begins by describing a recent visit by Defense Minister Shoigu T-14 Armata at rehearsal of parade in Moscow 2018. and the ministry’s finance experts to the plant where the Armata series are Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:T-14_Armata_(41072270525).jpg CC-BY-2.0 being produced. They discovered that instead of the 44 planned for completion, “the plant will supply only 16 vehicles, by the end of 2019.” The stated reasons for the delay in production are manifold. There has been an extremely high rate of personnel turnover, particularly within senior management, with the article pointing out that “according to some reports, this was due to financial abuse.” Design flaws have also hampered production. As the article describes, the crew capsule on the T-14 does not rotate with the turret, which places great “emphasis on optical means and electronics, which can fail in battle.” Financial constraints have also limited production. The article states that “the full development of the factory is hindered by a large number of debts, including to commercial banks.” These debts preclude any capital investment into the production facilities to accelerate production. The article suggests that the Ministry of Defense (MoD) is unable to provide additional funding because of “unforeseen expenses arising in Syria and in connection with the US withdrawing from the INF Treaty.” The article concludes by pointing out that the MoD plans on conducting “complex military tests [on the Armata series] before deciding on bulk purchases,” and that “there is still a rather long way before this system is fielded.” If nothing else, the problems associated with the production and fielding of the Armata series of armed vehicles suggests that there is often a gap between the Kremlin’s bellicose rhetoric and reality. End OE Watch Commentary (Finch) “…There is still a rather long way before this system [Armata] is fielded…” Source: Oleg, Falichev, “Армату ждет долгая дорога (Armata is waiting on a long road),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (Military Industrial Courier), 20 August 2019. https://vpk-news.ru/articles/52041 On 12 August, Sergei Shoigu made a working trip to the troops of the Central Military District, where he visited defense industry enterprises, in particular Uralvagonzavod. The Minister checked the progress of the state defense order, listened to the reports of the heads of enterprises, the command of the Central Military District…. …The Minister’s personal visit is always connected with resolving serious issues. Including those that require urgent organizational or financial measures. Judging by the fact that he was accompanied by Deputy Minister of Defense Tatyana Shevtsova, who was in charge of the monetary support of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, we can conclude that the issue concerned not only the timing of the defense order, but also the payment of already concluded contracts, which could be in jeopardy…. …The Minister’s trip to one of the leading defense enterprises in the country is an occasion to talk about the situation with the supply of armored vehicles to the troops, and primarily created on the Armata platform… It concludes contracts for the supply of at least battalion sets. The case in point is T-14 (Armata tank), T-15 (BMP on the same platform) and T-16 (BREM - armored maintenance vehicle).