(Draft) Section #3 “The End of the Era of ‘Cheap Energy’” (particularly in reference to Peak Oil) (“Statistics and Observations” piece) Part of a larger project “The IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011” which will be a list ranking ten critical challenges which are destabilizing efforts for quality of life and basic human needs worldwide and organized so that there are two sections for each critical challenge identified “Statistics and Observations” and “Commentary” [Note: current Table of Contents included in this paper as Appendix] by Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative (www.ipcri.net ) (July--September, 2011) Contact Information: Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative P. O Box 163 Leesburg, VA 20178 (USA) [email protected] (703) 209-2093 3) TheEndoftheEra of “Cheap Energy” (particularly in reference to “Peak Oil”) [Note: This is a draft version of Section #3 of a larger project: “IPCR Critical Challenges Assessment 2011”. This writer invites comments, questions, suggestions, and recommendations in the hopes of improving the final version, so that it can be as useful as possible to the work ahead.] Statistics and Observations •a) From poster titled “The Oil Age: World Oil Production 1859-2050” by SF Infomatics (from December 2010 edition available from the Post Carbon Institute (at http://www.postcarbon.org/book/40610-the- new-oil-age-poster-dec ) “Oil was created from the remains of plants and animals distilled over millions of years. The source of most oil found today can be traced to two brief periods of global warming some 90 to 150 million years ago, and to the shallow seas teeming with algae that covered much of the earth at the time. As generations of sea life settled to the bottom, a unique carbon-rich sedimentary rock was formed. Over time, some of the rock sank deep beneath the surface, where the earth’s natural heat gently cooked the rocks organic fraction, transforming it into a dark liquid. Petroleum—literally ‘rock oil’—was born.” •b) From introductory information to the book “The Coming Oil Crisis” by Colin J. Campbell Multi- Science Pub. Co. & Petroconsultants, 1997 (at google books) (see http://books.google.com/books?id=OXrtAAAAMAAJ&q=the+coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&dq=the+ coming+oil+crisis+colin+campbell&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=_E1aTpWPMKH40gHE6tGUCQ&sa=X&oi=book_r esult&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA (confirmed August 28, 2011) “The history and current status of the important oil industry are reviewed in this study of the geological origins of oil and gas. Assessed are how much oil and gas has been produced, what remains in known fields, and what is yet to be found, revealing how to properly interpret published numbers, many of which are false or distorted by vested interests. The contention is made that the growing Middle East control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The book further argues that the coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions as the world adjusts to a new energy environment.” •c) From article “The End of Cheap Oil” by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrere, Scientific American, March 1998 (article accessible at http://dieoff.org/page140.htm ) (confirmed August 28, 2011) (from paragraphs 20-22) “For the purposes of calculating when oil production will crest, even more critical than the size of the world’s reserves is the size of ultimate recovery—all the cheap oil there is to be had. In order to estimate that, we need to know whether, and how fast, reserves are moving up or down. It is here that the official statistics become dangerously misleading. “According to most accounts, world oil reserves have marched steadily upward over the past 20 years. Extending that apparent trend into the future, one could easily conclude, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration has, that oil production will continue to rise unhindered for decades to come, increasing almost two thirds by 2020. “Such growth is an illusion. About 80 percent of the oil produced today flows from fields that were found before 1973, and the great majority of them are declining.” (from paragraphs 38-40) “The switch from growth to decline in oil production will thus almost certainly create economic and political tension. Unless alternatives to crude oil quickly prove themselves, the market share of the OPEC states in the Middle East will rise rapidly. Within two years, these nations’ share of the global oil business will pass 30 percent, nearing the level reached during the oil-price shocks of the 1970s. By 2010 their share will quite probably hit 50 percent. “The world could thus see radical increases in oil prices. That alone might be sufficient to curb demand, flattening production for perhaps 10 years. (Demand fell more than 10 percent after the 1979 shock and took 17 years to recover.) But by 2010 or so, many Middle Eastern nations will themselves be past the midpoint. World production will then have to fall.” “With sufficient preparation, however, the transition to the post-oil economy need not be traumatic….” •d) From the article “The Oil Crash and You” by Bruce Thomson (as representative of the “Running on Empty” discussion forum at yahoo.com) (No publication date for this article, but this writer’s estimate is 2000-- 2001) There is a link from the below mentioned www.oilcrash.com to the article “The Oil Crash and You”, but only the shorter version of the article seemed accessible. However, the shorter version (at http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/running.htm ) did include the following notes in the section “Author of the Convince Sheet….” at the bottom of the article. The longer version is still accessible at http://greatchange.org/othervoices.html “Bruce Thomson, who is a technical writer in Palmerston North, New Zealand, and is the moderator of that RunningOnEmpty2internet forum. Members of that group have assisted in the research. There is no institutional financial sponsoring or influence of this web page or the forum. “Some moral authority to expose the Convince Sheet to the public was gained. After weeks of debate (3,100 forum message) there was a poll of 280 members. We all knew the announcement would be disturbing, with possibly serious impacts on the public, the stock market and general business and personal confidence. Of those 280 polled, 62 members responded, and over 85% of them voted in favor of exposing the truth.” The longer version is still accessible at http://greatchange.org/othervoices.html and includes the following (in the “By Products of Oil” section): “Many people associate gasoline or diesel fuel with crude oil, but not the huge number of products that are used everyday. The items produced from crude oil are astounding and number in the thousands. Scientists have identified at least 500,000 different uses of oil. “Examples: Saccharine (artificial sweetener), roofing paper, aspirin, hair coloring, heart valves, crayons, parachutes, telephones, bras, transparent tape, antiseptics, purses, deodorant, panty hose, air conditioners, shower curtains, shoes, volleyballs, electrician's tape, floor wax, lipstick, sweaters, running shoes, bubble gum, car bodies, tires, house paint, hair dryers, guitar strings, pens, ammonia, eyeglasses, contacts, life jackets, insect repellent, fertilizers, hair coloring, movie film, ice chests, loudspeakers, basketballs, footballs, combs/brushes, linoleum, fishing rods, rubber boots, water pipes, vitamin capsules, motorcycle helmets, fishing lures, petroleum jelly, lip balm, antihistamines, golf balls, dice, insulation, glycerin, typewriter/computer ribbons, trash bags, rubber cement, cold cream, umbrellas, ink of all types, wax paper, paint brushes, hearing aids, compact discs, mops, bandages, artificial turf, cameras, glue, shoe polish, caulking, tape recorders, stereos, plywood adhesives, TV cabinets, toilet seats, car batteries, candles, refrigerator seals, carpet, cortisone, vaporizers, solvents, nail polish, denture adhesives, balloons, boats, dresses, shirts (non-cotton), perfumes, toothpaste, roller-skate wheels, plastic forks, tennis rackets, hair curlers, plastic cups, electric blankets, oil filters, floor wax, Ping-Pong paddles, cassette tapes, dishwashing liquid, water skis, upholstery, chewing gum, thermos bottles, plastic chairs, transparencies, plastic wrap, rubber bands, computers, gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, heating oil, asphalt, motor oil, jet fuel, marine diesel, butane " Dr. Gary L. Stringer Northeast Louisiana University •e) From “Statement” at www.oilcrash.com Homepage of www.oilcrash.com includes introductory comments made by Robert Atack and dated January 12, 2003 This website also includes an extensive links section. (below excerpt is concluding section of “Statement”, at http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/statemnt.htm ) (confirmed August 28, 2011) “We call on all governments of the world to recognize the gravity of the oil peak problem. “Oil peak is an inevitability. The first warnings were made public nearly half a century ago, and were largely ignored. Increasingly since that time, the oil geology community has expressed concerns about global oil supplies. Since 1995, a group of veteran geologists has been issuing highly specific warnings based on exhaustive analysis.