Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 Chinese Politics in the Era of Xi Jinping Renowned for his coverage of China’s elite politics and leadership transitions, veteran Sinologist Willy Lam has produced the first book-length study in English of the rise of Xi Jinping—State President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With rare insight, Lam describes Xi’s personal history and his fascination with quasi-Maoist values, the factional politics through which he ascended, the configuration of power of the Fifth-Generation leadership, and the future directions of domestic and foreign policy under the charismatic “princeling.” Despite an undistinguished career as a provincial administrator, Xi has rapidly amassed more power than his predecessors. He has overawed his rivals and shaken up the party-state hierarchy with a thorough anti-corruption campaign. With a strong power base in the People’s Liberation Army and a vision of China as an “awakening lion,” Xi has been flexing China’s military muscle in sovereignty rows with countries including Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines while trying to undermine the influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. While Xi is still fine-tuning his art of governance, his zero tolerance for dissent and his preoccupation with upholding the privileges of the “red aristocracy” and the CCP’s status as “perennial ruling party” do not bode well for economic, political, or cultural reforms. Lam takes a close look at Xi’s ideological and political profile and considers how his conservative outlook might shape what the new strongman calls “the Great Renaissance of the Chinese people.” Willy Wo-Lap Lam is Adjunct Professor in the Centre for China Studies and the Department of History of the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 “A vivid and compelling account of where quasi-superpower China is being taken by its new supreme leader. Willy Lam offers a fast-paced account showing why wishful thinkers about the single-party dictatorship’s future need to re-think what’s really happening in China. A must read with frightening implications.” Edward Friedman, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA “Veteran analyst Willy Wo-Lap Lam’s assessment of Xi’s personality, career, and worldview provides remarkable insight into the prospects for China’s economy, political system, and international role under its determined new leader.” Harry Harding, University of Virginia, USA “The crisis that looms in China today under Xi Jinping, who brings an unusual combination of narrow vision and brash initiative, augurs trouble for the Chinese people and likely for the world. No one does better than Willy Lam in showing why this is so.” Perry Link, University of California, USA “Veteran China expert Willy Lam has done it again—producing the first significant book on Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power. Based on prodigious research and filled with keen insights, this book should be read by all China watchers.” David Shambaugh, George Washington University & The Brookings Institution, USA “This is a brilliant book that brings a deep understanding of the Chinese past to Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 bear on the present and possible futures. Willy Lam is the authority on the subject; at least as insightful as a whole embassy full of specialists.” Arthur Waldron, University of Pennsylvania, USA Chinese Politics in the Era of Xi Jinping Renaissance, Reform, or Retrogression? Willy Wo-Lap Lam Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 First published 2015 by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 and by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © Willy Wo-Lap Lam The right of the Author to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lam, Willy Wo-Lap. Chinese politics in the era of Xi Jinping : renaissance, reform, or retrogression? by Willy Wo-Lap Lam. pages cm Includes index. 1. China—Politics and government—2002– 2. Xi, Jinping. I. Title. DS779.46.L349 2015 Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 951.06′12—dc23 2014028353 ISBN: 978-0-7656-4208-0 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-7656-4209-7 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-71936-8 (ebk) For Chan Kin-Man, Rev. Chu Yiu-Ming, Martin Lee, Benny Yiu-Ting Tai, and Cardinal Joseph Zen Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 This page intentionally left blank Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 ———— Contents ———— Acknowledgments ix Introduction: Why Is Xi Jinping So Fearful of Change? xi List of Acronyms xxi 1 Factors Behind Xi Jinping’s Rise: Factional Intrigue and Controversies Over the Future of Reform 3 Introduction: Is Xi Jinping Up to the Challenge? 3 The Eighteenth Party Congress and the Advent of the Xi Jinping Era 5 The Rise of the Gang of Princelings 11 The Political Fortunes of the Communist Youth League Faction 14 The Rise of the Technocrats and Returnees 21 Conclusion: The World Awaits Xi’s Reforms 23 2 The Making of a New Helmsman 34 Introduction: What Kind of Leader Is Xi Jinping? 34 Xi’s Family and Intimate Circles 36 Humble Beginnings in a Shaanxi Village 41 Early Years at the Central Military Commission and Hebei Province 42 Seventeen Lackadaisical Years in Fujian Province 43 Five Crucial Years in Zhejiang Province 51 Seven Months as Honcho of Shanghai 55 How Xi Became “Crown Prince” at the Seventeenth Party Congress—and His Testy Relations with Boss Hu 57 Xi Jinping’s Governing Team 60 Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 Conclusion: Xi’s Qualifications Compared to Those of His Predecessors 63 3 Xi Jinping’s Ideology and Politics 75 Introduction: Xi’s Stunning Power Grab—and His Conservative Agenda 75 Xi’s Key Mission: Concentration of Power at the Top and the Selling of the Chinese Dream 77 Preservation of the CCP’s “Perennial Ruling Party” Status 85 Xi’s Prescriptions for Running the Party—and the Country 94 vii viii CONTENTS Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign and Factional Intrigue 105 Retrogression in Political Reform 111 Conclusion: Holding Down the Fort vs. Ringing in the New 127 4 Economics vs. Politics: Beijing’s Uphill Battle to Retool the Chinese Model 151 Introduction: In Search of Sustainable—and More Equitable—Growth 151 Market Reforms Introduced at the Third Plenum of the Eighteenth Central Committee 152 Control vs. Let Go: Clashes Between Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang 157 SOE Conglomerates Retain Clout 161 The Uncertain Future of the Private Sector 165 Can China Innovate? 168 Retooling the Chinese Model 170 Conclusion: State Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics 175 5 China’s Great Leap Outward 190 Introduction: “Proactively Seek Achievements” vs. “Keep a Low Profile” 190 The Xi Administration’s Assertive Foreign Policy 192 China’s Relations with the United States, Japan, ASEAN, and Russia 206 Large-Scale PLA Involvement in China’s Foreign Policy 227 Conclusion: Can China Usher in a “De-Americanized World”? 233 6 Conclusion: Xi Jinping and the Closing of the Chinese Mind 262 Introduction: Trajectory of the Development of a Problematic Quasi- Superpower 262 The Deceleration of Reform and Institutional Innovation 265 The CCP’s Feet of Clay: A Superpower with an Alarming “Civilization Deficit” 269 Reasons Why China Is a World Power Without a World-Class Culture 275 Key Factors Behind the Retrogression of Chinese Culture 282 Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:32 06 August 2016 Disturbing Reasons for “Elite Emigration” 291 Conclusion: Why the Chinese Dream Remains Illusory 294 About the Author 309 Index 311 ———— Acknowledgments ———— Watching, analyzing, and writing about China require patience, forbearance, clair- voyance, and, occasionally, inspiration from the heavens. The first two years of the administration of Xi Jinping proved much more eventful—and at times more exciting—than expected. Xi has pulled off a series of Machiavellian maneuvers to bolster his power in the Chinese Communist Party, the government, and the army. He has waged perhaps the largest anti-corruption crackdown since the end of the Cultural Revolution. And in foreign and military policy, Xi has not shied away from head-on confrontations with countries in the Asia-Pacific including the United States. China-watching since the Eighteenth Party Congress, however, could also be depressing. Xi has continued to mothball political and institutional reforms. He has repeatedly said no to universal values and global norms. As a big fan of Chair- man Mao Zedong, he has also redoubled ideological control in areas ranging from the media to the classroom. While scholars and analysts of China should remain highly objective, it is comforting to know that I can share my upbeat as well as pessimistic views with so many China specialists and enthusiasts. In