This dissertation by Bongani D. Ngqulunga is accepted in its present form by the Department of Sociology as satisfying the dissertation requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Date______________ ______________________ Professor P. Heller, Advisor Recommended to the Graduate Council Date_______________ ________________________ Professor Jose Itzigsohn, Reader Date_______________ _________________________ Professor Paget Henry, Reader Approved by the Graduate Council Date_______________ __________________________ Professor Sheila Bonde, Dean of the Graduate School Elusive Equity: Democracy and the Politics of Social Reform in South Africa after Apartheid Bongani Ngqulunga B. Paed, University of Durban-Westville, 1997 B.Ed, University of Durban-Westville, 1998 M. Sc URP, University of Natal (Durban), 2000 A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Sociology at Brown University Providence, Rhode Island May 2009 iii Table of Contents Page Chapter 1: Background to the study 1 Introduction 1 Explanations for the dearth of pro-poor policies 11 The argument 16 Note on methodology 26 Chapter 2: Working class organization in South Africa 29 Introduction 29 Working class organization before 1994 30 Working class organization after 1994 34 Chapter 3: State capacity and its implications for social reform 56 Introduction 56 State bureaucracy inherited from apartheid 58 Reforming the state bureaucracy 63 State capacity after reform 68 Explanation for the government’s approach to reform 72 Conclusion 75 Chapter 4: The neoliberal turn in economic policy 77 Introduction 77 The introduction of the GEAR strategy 77 Explanation for the ANC’s neoliberal turn in economic policy 82 The ANC’s neoliberal reforms in comparative perspective 95 Reasons COSATU’s continued participation in the alliance 96 Conclusion 99 Chapter 5: The tragedy of HIV/AIDS 101 HIV/AIDS prevalence in South Africa 101 The Nelson Mandela administration: the era of benign neglect 105 The Thabo Mbeki administration: the era of denial 115 Conclusion 126 Chapter 6: A glimmer of hope in education 129 Expanding access to education 130 The financing of education 136 Explaining progressive education reforms 144 Conclusion 157 Chapter 7: South Africa in comparative perspective 159 Restating the puzzle and assessing the evidence 159 Labor-populist party alliances in comparative context 169 Theoretical conclusions from the South African case 175 iv Conclusion 177 Tables and figures Table 1.1: Number of people living on less than $1 dollar/day, 1995-2006 2 Table 1.2: Human Development Index trends of selected developing countries 3 Table 1.3: Unemployment rate by race, 1994-2006 4 Figure1: Illustration of the causal explanation for the dearth of pro-poor policies in South Africa 18 Figure 2: Model of COSATU’s influence over government policy 51 Table 3.1: Total number of civil servants, 1930-1980 61 Table 3.2: Tax collection capacity 69 Table 4.1: Trade unions and membership, 1994-2005 84 Table 4.2: The changing profile of COSATU membership 86 Table 4.3: COSATU members’ attitudes to its alliance with the ANC 97 Table 5.1: Estimated effects of HIV/AIDS on total population, 2000-2008 103 Table 6.1: Enrolment by grade at ordinary public and independent schools 1995 and 2006 132 Table 6.2: Gross Enrolment Rates (GER) and Gender Parity Index (GPI) 135 Table 6.3: Public expenditure on education as a proportion of total government expenditure, 2002/03, in selected countries 136 Table 6.4: Percentage of total provincial spending on education 139 Table 6.5: Implementation of No Fees Schools Policy, 2007 140 Table 6.6: The national school nutrition program, 2005/6 and 2006/7 142 v Acknowledgements Many people have supported me while working on this dissertation. I wish to express my gratitude to all of them. I am particularly indebted to Patrick Heller (the chair of my dissertation committee) who has been a tremendous source of support and encouragement. He has become more than a professor to me; he is a valued comrade. I am also grateful to Paget Henry and Jose Itzigsohn, the two other members of the dissertation committee, for their assistance and support. My experience at Brown University has changed my life in many ways than I could have imagined when I first arrived there. I wish to express my gratitude to the professors (especially in the Department of Sociology), members of staff and students for making Brown such a magical place. I have also received assistance from a lot of South African friends while doing fieldwork for the dissertation. I am indebted to Zama Khuluse, who served as my host and provided me with shelter, friendship and a lot of delicious (but hot) meals. I also wish to thank Vusi Gumede for introducing me to a lot of people in government that I needed to talk to for the research. My colleagues at the President’s Office have been very generous and have provided me with all the support I needed for completing my doctoral studies. I wish to thank them all for their generous support. I also wish to thank the National Research Foundation and Brown University for providing financial support for my doctoral studies. This dissertation is dedicated to my parents. I particularly dedicate it to my late father for his unwavering belief in the transformative power of education, and to my mother for her countless acts of love and generosity. vi Chapter 1: Background to the study Introduction The purpose of this dissertation is to explain the trajectory of social reform in South Africa during the first 14 years of democracy, 1994-2008. The principal question that it addresses is why democratic reform in South Africa has not brought about social equity. The focus of the analysis is on the public policies that the ANC government has implemented in three sectors: the economy, health and education. The question I address with respect to these sectors is why the policies that have been implemented have been largely anti-poor (with the exception of education). Numerous academic studies and reports from reputable institutions often note that more South Africans are getting poorer; more are getting unemployed; and that the general standard of living has been steadily declining since the advent of democracy. For instance, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) noted in its 2003 report on South Africa that about 48.5 per cent of the South African population (21.9 million people) in 2003 fell below the national poverty line (UNDP, 2003:5). The report further observed that the level of income inequality has remained high and is in fact deteriorating, which is reflected in the increasing Gini-coefficient that rose from 0.596 in 1995 to 0.635 in 2001 (ibid). Other studies also show that the number of poor people in South Africa has increased over the past fourteen years. The South African Institute on Race Relations (SAIRR), for example, shows that the number of people living on less than one dollar a day more than doubled between 1996 and 2005. This increase is clearly demonstrated in Table 1.1 below, which shows that while the number of poor people was less than 2 million in 1996, it had increased to over 4 million by 2005. 1 Table 1.1: Number of people living on less than $1/day, 1996-2005 Year Number 1996 1 899 874 1997 2 243 576 1998 2 604 366 1999 2 931 253 2000 3 205 217 2001 3 653 756 2002 4 451 843 2003 4 374 079 2004 4 296 653 2005 4 228 787 Source: South Africa Survey-2006/7, SAIRR Social deterioration is also evident in other areas. A look at the UNDP’s Human Development Reports of the past decade shows that South Africa’s score on the Human Development Index (HDI) has progressively declined. Table 1.2 below, which compares South Africa’s performance on the HDI against other similar middle income countries shows that it is the only country (with the exception of Botswana) whose HDI has gotten worse over the period 1995-2004. While it was 0.741 in 1995, it had declined to 0.653 by 2004. The UNDP attributes this deterioration in the standard of living of poor South Africans to what it calls the largely anti-poor socio-economic policies that have been implemented by the ANC government since the first democratic elections in 1994. 2 Table 1.2 Human Development Index Trends of Selected Developing Countries, 1995-2004 Country 1995 2000 2003 2004 Argentina 0.835 0.860 0.863 0.863 Botswana 0.660 0.598 0.565 0.570 Brazil 0.749 0.785 0.792 0.792 Chile 0.818 0.843 0.854 0.859 Egypt 0.613 0.654 0.659 0.702 India 0.548 0.577 0.602 0.611 Malaysia 0.761 0.791 0.796 0.805 Mexico 0.784 0.811 0.814 0.821 South Africa 0.741 0.691 0.658 0.653 Source: UNDP, Human Development Report, 2005, 2006 While the South African government consistently challenges figures that depict declining standards of living such as the UNDP’s quoted above, research by numerous other scholars however overwhelmingly supports this picture of social deterioration as demonstrated by the UNDP Report and the SAIRR Survey. Landman et al (2003:03), for instance, observe that poverty and inequality are two distinct problems that characterize South Africa since the transition to democracy. While they note that different measurements of poverty yield different poverty estimates, their study supports the UNDP Report on one important issue: that the proportion of the population that is poor in South Africa is well over 40 per cent and increasing.