Friday, April 23, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Flash Coastal Day Lightning Tornado Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind/Hail Flooding Flooding Panhandle Western Far NW FL Far NW West Coast Fri South FL (overnight) Panhandle W Panhandle Florida Elsewhere North FL Panhandle & Sat Central FL North Florida North Florida South FL Statewide Big Bend South FL Northeast FL Sun South FL Statewide & Peninsula Panhandle Mon South FL Elsewhere Southeast Tue South FL Statewide Florida Severe Weather Hazard Breakdown for Saturday: Tornadoes (left), Damaging Winds (center), Large Hail (right) Maximum Wind Gusts through Saturday Afternoon Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday Night FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 …Potentially Significant Severe Weather Event for North Florida on Saturday…Two Rounds of Severe Weather Possible Across North Florida…Windy Outside of Storms in North Florida…Hot with Isolated Showers and Storms in the Peninsula this Weekend…Minor Coastal Flooding Possible in Southeast Florida Next Week… Friday - Saturday: A warm front over the Gulf of Mexico tonight will lift northward through the Panhandle and Big Bend Saturday morning. This brings the first round of thunderstorms into the Panhandle late tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western Panhandle in a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather tonight (level 1-2 of 5). Damaging winds up to 60 mph and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat, mainly after 2 AM CT. On Saturday, the first complex of storms will be rolling across southern Alabama and southern Georgia in the morning and afternoon hours, clipping areas north of I-10 in Florida. This first round could pose a damaging wind and tornado risk as it quickly moves eastward. Meanwhile, a second round of thunderstorms will begin developing in the western Panhandle around midday. This second round will move across the Panhandle and Big Bend through the afternoon and evening hours, then into Northeast Florida during the evening and overnight hours. This second round of storms will have better dynamics to work with, and some of these storms could be quite potent. Tornadoes (possibly EF-2 or stronger), damaging winds, and large hail (possibly 2” or greater) are all possible with this second round of storms. It should be noted that the exact evolution of tomorrow’s second round is still uncertain, but it could be more intense. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of North Florida in an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for Saturday (level 3 of 5). This second round of storms will drop into Central Florida overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storms will be weakening as they do so, but the Marginal Risk of severe weather extends southward to Hernando to Flagler Counties. Meanwhile, across the Peninsula on Saturday, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon. However, these storms are not expected to be severe. FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 On Sunday, the line of storms will be near the I-4 corridor to start the day, then move southward through the Peninsula and become more diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Sunday ahead of the dissipating line as well. Severe weather is not expected on Sunday. It will be quite windy across North Florida through the day on Saturday outside of storms. Wind gusts of 25-40 mph will be common. Otherwise, temperatures will be very warm across the state. High temperatures Saturday will be in the 70s across the Panhandle and Big Bend with 80s elsewhere. On Sunday, highs will be in the 80s statewide with a few 90s in interior South Florida. Heat index values in South Florida could reach the mid-90s. Lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s, though parts of North Florida could see lows in the 50s Sunday night. Monday – Tuesday: After the cold front clears the state, dry weather will return, but temperatures will not be cooler behind the front. Winds will be breezy on Tuesday at times with gusts of 20-25 mph possible in the afternoon. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 80s across the state, possibly near 90 in some areas. Lows each night will be in the 60s across most areas with 70s in Southeast Florida and the Keys. Flooding & Hydrology: All Florida rivers, creeks, and streams are below flood stage except the Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam (moderate flood stage). However, several North Florida Flash Flood Risk rivers remain in Action Stage (bank-full) from on Saturday previous rainfall In general, river flooding is not expected this weekend or next even with an additional 1-3” of rain forecast this weekend in North Florida. For more information, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strong storms in North Florida on Saturday. If storms become more east-west aligned, some training of storms may occur. This could result in isolated flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined much of the Panhandle and Big Bend in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding on Saturday (level 1 of 4). FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.21 feet, which is within the operational band but 0.40 feet above normal for this time of year. This is the same level as this time last week. Pulse releases continue down the Caloosahatchee and to the south of the lake, but have ended down the St. Lucie. The lake has risen over the last few days, but has now stabilized and may begin falling again. Drought & Fire Weather: This week’s Drought Monitor shows a reduction in abnormally dry areas across much of the Peninsula. The moderate drought area is now only confined to mainland Monroe County with abnormally dry conditions across South Florida and a small part of Central Florida from Pasco to Orange County. The Keetch-Byram latest Keetch-Byram Drought Index statewide Drought Index average is a damp 164 on a scale from 0 (wet) (KBDI) as of to 800 (dry). A few pockets of KBDI of 500-600 remain in South Florida. April 23, 2021 Critical wildfire conditions are not anticipated over the next 5 days. The recent rainfall will keep the wildfire threat minimal in North and Central Florida. The wildfire threat WET DRY across South Florida remains moderate as that part of the state missess out on most of the rainfall and remains dry. Breezy winds are also expected through early next week. There are currently 10 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 48 acres. 8 are 100% contained. Rip Currents & Marine Hazards: Breezy southerly winds will lead to a high rip current risk along the Panhandle and Atlantic beaches on Saturday. Winds will become more westerly on Sunday, decreasing the rip current risk to moderate through Monday. Winds become east to southeast again late Monday to Tuesday, bringing the rip current risk back to high for Tuesday. Waves will be 3-6’ along Panhandle and Atlantic beaches on Saturday, then decreasing to 2-4’ through next week. The West Coast will have a low rip current risk through Red Tide the next 5 days with waves of 1-3’. Concentrations Some minor coastal flooding is possible along coastal Southeast Florida during the early to middle part of next week due to the full moon cycle in perigee and strong east to southeast winds. This could result in tides about 1-1.5’ above normal. The bloom of Red Tide in Southwest Florida continues from Manatee to Collier County. Low to FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 medium concentrations were observed over the last week with respiratory irritation and fish kills reported at local beaches. For the latest Red Tide concentration reports, please view the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission map. NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stay safe! Cameron Young, Assistant State Meteorologist Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 04.23.21 .