Classification of Informal Settlements Based on their Susceptibility to Climate Change Case study of Ahmedabad, India Revathi Roopini Veriah Applied Research Paper I Spring 2018 Advisor: Michael Elliott Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Impact of Climate Change on India ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Impact of Climate Change on Indian Cities .......................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Definition of Slums ............................................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Vulnerability of Slums to Climate Change............................................................................................................ 7 1.5 Key Climate Stressors ......................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Research Context and Research Question .......................................................................................................... 11 3. Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Remote Sensing and the Study of Slums .......................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Limitations ......................................................................................................................................................... 14 4. Literature Review ................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.1 Ahmedabad and its informal settlements ........................................................................................................... 14 4.1.1 The City and its Slums ............................................................................................................................... 15 4.1.2 Planning Interventions ................................................................................................................................ 17 4.2 Climate Change and the City of Ahmedabad ..................................................................................................... 17 4.2.1 Vulnerability to Heat Waves ....................................................................................................................... 18 4.2.2 Vulnerability to Flooding and Inundation .................................................................................................... 19 4.2.3 Vulnerability to Water Scarcity.................................................................................................................... 20 4.2.4 Vulnerability to Vector Borne Deceases ..................................................................................................... 20 4.2.5 Gaps to be Addressed ................................................................................................................................ 20 4.2.6 Policy Responses at the State Level .......................................................................................................... 21 5. Assessment of Baseline Condition- At the City Level ........................................................................................ 21 5.1 Heat Wave ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 5.1.1 Exposure .................................................................................................................................................... 22 5.1.2 Impact of Urban Heat Island Effect on Heat Exposure ............................................................................... 24 5.1.3 Susceptibility .............................................................................................................................................. 25 5.1.4 Adaptive capacity ....................................................................................................................................... 26 5.2 Flooding and Inundation .................................................................................................................................... 28 5.2.1 Coping Strategies ....................................................................................................................................... 30 5.3 Water Scarcity ................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.3.1 Sources of Water Supply ............................................................................................................................ 31 5.3.2 Water Supply and Slum Communities ........................................................................................................ 31 5.3.3 Impact of Scarcity on the Community ......................................................................................................... 33 1 5.4 Vector Borne Deceases ..................................................................................................................................... 33 5.4.1 Impact on Slum Communities..................................................................................................................... 34 6. Assessment of Baseline Condition- At the Slum Level ...................................................................................... 37 6.1 Slum Typologies ............................................................................................................................................ 37 6.2 Criteria and Weightage for Assessment ........................................................................................................ 38 6.4 Slum Typology - 2 Relocated Slums ............................................................................................................. 44 6.5 Slum Typology - 3 Chawls or Chali ............................................................................................................... 46 6.6 Slum Typology - 4 -Pol .................................................................................................................................. 48 6.7 Slum Typology - 5 Hazard Prone Areas (River Front) ................................................................................... 49 7. Existing Policy Measures and Future Recommendations ................................................................................. 50 7.1 Policies Addressing Slum Redevelopment .................................................................................................... 50 7.2 Policies to Address Heat Waves ................................................................................................................... 51 7.3 Policies to Address Flooding ......................................................................................................................... 52 7.4 Policies to Address Water Scarcity ................................................................................................................ 54 7.5 Policies to Address Vector Borne Deceases ................................................................................................. 54 8. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................. 55 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................... 57 2 1. Introduction 1.1 Impact of Climate Change on India The changing climate impacts society and ecosystems in a broad variety of ways. For example, climate change can alter rainfall, influence crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems. Climate- related impacts are occurring across the world and impacts many sectors of the economy (US EPA, 2017) The Global Climate Risk Index (2016) ranks India in 10th place. The index analyses to what extent countries have been affected by the impact of extreme weather-related events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.) between 1995 and 2014 (Kreft et al., 2013). This predicts the country’s vulnerability and susceptibility to the impacts of climate change in the future. Climate change in India can be seen in the perspective of a three-part transition: a demographic transition that will see India’s population stabilizing at about 1.6 billion in the 2060s; a simultaneous rural to urban transition, which will add nearly 500 million people to the country’s urban settlements over this period; and a simultaneous environmental transition – brown (water, sanitation and environmental health), grey (air and water pollution) and green (climate change). Multiple sub-regionally nuanced strategies will be needed to respond to the climate crisis, drawing on considerable local experience of coping with uncertainty and with systems far from equilibrium. (Revi, 2008) 1.2 Impact of Climate Change on Indian Cities