The VIA 1-4-10 Plan A Recovery Strategy for Canada’s Rail Passenger Service For Transport Action Canada By Greg Gormick On Track Strategies November 6, 2015 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... v 1.0 Setting a New Course for VIA ............................................................................... 1 2.0 The Foundation of VIA’s Recovery ........................................................................ 3 2.1 A New Rail Passenger Action Force .................................................................. 4 2.2 A Reformed and Informed Board of Directors .................................................. 6 2.3 Managerial Redirection ................................................................................... 7 2.4 A Clear Legislative Mandate ........................................................................... 10 3.0 Overhauling the Freight Railway Relationship ..................................................... 15 4.0 Modernizing VIA’s Fleet ...................................................................................... 23 4.1 Rolling Stock ................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Motive Power ................................................................................................. 30 4.3 Fleet Procurement .......................................................................................... 33 4.4 Short-Term Fleet Maximization ...................................................................... 34 5.0 A High-Performance Quebec-Windsor Corridor ................................................... 37 5.1 VIA’s High-Frequency Rail Proposal ................................................................ 38 5.2 The High-Performance Rail Alternative ........................................................... 41 5.2.1 Montreal-Ottawa Upgrading Project ....................................................... 43 5.2.2 Coteau Capacity Expansion Project .......................................................... 44 5.2.3 Ganonoque Cutoff ................................................................................... 44 5.2.4 Shannonville-Newcastle Line Consolidation ............................................. 45 5.2.5 Brantford Bypass ..................................................................................... 46 5.2.6 Windsor-Detroit Connection .................................................................... 46 5.2.7 Incremental Corridor-Wide Projects ........................................................ 47 5.2.8 VIA/Government of Ontario Coordination ............................................... 50 5.2.9 Improved Intermodal Links ...................................................................... 52 5.3 The Missing Corridor: Calgary-Edmonton ........................................................ 53 i 6.0 An Equitable Off-Corridor Vision ......................................................................... 57 6.1 Revitalizing the Long-Haul Network .............................................................. 57 6.2 The Remote Service Reality ........................................................................... 61 7.0 VIA’s Need for Growth ........................................................................................ 65 7.1 Ridership Growth Initiatives ......................................................................... 66 7.2 Longer-Term Network Expansion .................................................................. 67 7.3 International Service Expansion .................................................................... 69 7.4 Tourism-Related Service Expansion ............................................................... 69 7.5 Feeder Bus Services ...................................................................................... 71 8.0 Initiating VIA’s Recovery: 2016 ............................................................................ 75 8.1 Improved Fleet Utilization ............................................................................. 76 8.2 Service-Driven Pricing and Product Redesign ................................................ 78 8.3 Rebuilding the VIA Brand .............................................................................. 81 8.4 Service Restoration and Stabilization ............................................................ 82 8.4.1 Gaspé Service Restoration ..................................................................... 82 8.4.2 Vancouver Island Service Restoration .................................................... 84 8.4.3 Securing Northern Manitoba’s Services ................................................. 85 8.4.4 Algoma Central Service Restoration ....................................................... 85 8.4.5 Stabilizing the Ocean ............................................................................. 86 8.4.6 Stabilizing the Canadian ........................................................................ 87 9.0 Advancing VIA’s Recovery: 2017-2019 ................................................................. 91 9.1 Enhanced Fleet ............................................................................................. 91 9.2 The HPR Corridor Takes Shape ....................................................................... 92 9.3 Improved International Connections .............................................................. 94 9.4 Growing the Long-Haul Markets .................................................................... 95 9.5 Remote Service Improvements ...................................................................... 96 9.6 Experimental Regional Routes ....................................................................... 98 9.6.1 Montreal-Sherbrooke ............................................................................ 99 9.6.2 Toronto-North Bay ............................................................................... 100 9.6.3 Winnipeg-Regina ................................................................................. 101 ii 10.0 Completing VIA’s Recovery: 2020-2025 ........................................................... 103 10.1 Fleet Renewal and Growth ......................................................................... 103 10.2 The HPR Corridor in Full ............................................................................. 104 10.3 Expanded National System ........................................................................ 105 10.3.1 Daily Transcontinental Service ........................................................... 106 10.3.2 Winnipeg-Calgary-Banff ..................................................................... 107 10.3.3 Montreal-Sherbrooke-Portland .......................................................... 108 10.3.4 Toronto-Peterborough ....................................................................... 109 10.3.5 Toronto-North Bay-Kapuskasing ........................................................ 110 10.3.6 Sudbury-Sault Ste. Marie ................................................................... 112 10.3.7 Winnipeg-Minneapolis/St. Paul ......................................................... 113 11.0 A Passenger Railway for Canada’s Future ........................................................ 115 © 2015 by Greg Gormick and Transport Action Canada iii Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank the following individuals for their generous assistance in the production of this plan: Ted Bartlett Barry Brake Matthew Buchanan Andy Cassidy Bill Chester Ray Farand Harry Gow David Gunn Dan Hammond Bruce Harvey Bob Johnston Peter Lacey John Leeming Howard Levine Peter Miasek Tony Turrittin Chris West Ken Westcar … and numerous members of the rail industry, who wish to remain anonymous. iv Executive Summary 1.0 Setting a New Course for VIA The new federal government will soon have to make major decisions about the fate of VIA Rail Canada. Through no fault of its own, this government has now inherited all the problems that VIA has accumulated since it was imperfectly created in 1977. These problems are a result of previous governments not dealing effectively with the issue. The VIA 1-4-10 Plan is a suggested blueprint for the nationwide reconstruction of VIA as a modern, affordable and effective public transportation service. It recognizes there is no “silver bullet” for fixing VIA; strong political will, vision and investment will be required. The plan is based on five underlying assumptions: • VIA’s revival shall be a publicly-funded project undertaken in the national interest; • VIA shall be retained and improved as a nationwide service; • Proven techniques and technologies must be employed to minimize risk and deliver improvements at the earliest opportunity; • A capital budget of $5 billion over a ten-year period is required for projects that will reduce costs, improve service and increase revenue incrementally; and • Improvements must be deliverable within one, four and ten years, for valid practical, financial and political reasons. 2.0 The Foundation of VIA’s Recovery To revive VIA, there are four fundamental steps that must be taken for it to have any prospect of recovery and long-term success. These are: • The formation of a Rail Passenger Action Force, composed of