Bangladesh Telecommunication Industry: A Comprehensive Review 100.00% Growing Teledensity in 95.00% Bangladesh 94% 90.00% 88% 85.00% 83% 80.00% 78% 76% 75.00% 70.00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 T h e digitalization j o u r n e y changing the l i f e s t y l e of the country people... Mohammad Asrarul Haque Research Analyst [email protected] THE TELECOM INDUSTRY IN BANGLADESH: A Key Milestones SUCCESS STORY OF TWO DECADES The country’s march towards materializing its vision ‘Digital Bangladesh’ has 1989 brought impressive growth in the telecommunication and information License issued to Bangladesh Telecom Limited (CDMA) and Sheba Telecom technology sector. The country’s active mobile subscriber penetration 1996 reached to 93.4% from meagre 30.6% in 2008. Bangladesh is now the eighth- License issued to Telecom Malaysia largest mobile market in the world in terms of unique subscribers and the International Bangladesh and Grameenphone sector now contributes almost 1.8% of total GDP. Two major telecom service Bangladesh Telecom Limited rebranded to Pacific Bangladesh and Citycell brand offerings are “Voice Calls” and “Internet Data” services. Revenue from voice launched calls still dominates the industry while contribution from data revenue is 1997 growing exponentially since the launching of 3G in Bangladesh. Launch of Grameenphone, AKTEL and Sheba 1999 Despite being the fifth largest market in Asia Pacific region, Launch of prepaid service 2002 real industry penetration is still half of the country 1 million connections population implying healthy growth potential 2004 Launch of state-owned Teletalk The telecom industry in Bangladesh has scaled up rapidly over past decade 2005 having a total of 157 million active subscription and more than 85 million Introduction of SIM tax unique subscribers. Unique subscriber penetration in Bangladesh rose to Launch of Warid telecom almost 55% by 2018 from only 1% in 2003 due to rapid adoption of 2010 telecommunication services. The industry has turned out to be fifth largest Bharti Airtel acquires Warid AKTEL rebranded as Robi market in Asia Pacific Region, according to GSMA. 2011 However, about half of the entire population are yet to be connected with Renewal of 2G spectrum for 15 years the mobile telecommunication network, also indicating that there is 2012 enormous room to grow. The real market penetration remained steady in Teletalk launches first 3G network in the last three years as mandatory bio-metric SIM reregistration has slowed Bangladesh 2013 down the pace of new customer acquisition. Grameenphone, Robi, Banglalink and Airtel Mobile Subscriber Dynamics in Bangladesh launch 3G networks 100 million connections Unique Subscriber Count (mn) Unique Subscriber Penetration Rate 120 60.0% 2016 Merger of Robi and Airtel creates number 100 50.0% two operator by number of connections 80 40.0% Introduction of biometric SIM registration 2017 60 30.0% Unique subscriber penetration surpasses 50% 40 20.0% of the population 2018 20 10.0% Spectrum auction 0 0.0% 4G services launched Introduction of uniform voice tariffs 201… 201… 202… 202… 202… 202… 202… 202… 2016 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2000 Launch of MNP Source: GSMA Bangladesh Country Report & EBLSL Research A multi-SIM market with growing subscriber addition The Bangladesh telecom market is mainly dominated by pre-paid customers and almost 98% of total subscriptions are prepaid, according to Grameenphone. Though industry penetration based on number of subscription is huge, a large portion of customer holds more than one subscription at the same time. Bangladesh Telecom Industry Subscription Industry Subscrition Panetration (in million) 180 GP Banglalink GP Banglalink Robi Airtel Citycell Teletalk Robi+ airtel Teletalk 160 Cellular subscribers 140 100.0% 90.0% 120 80.0% 93.8% 100 70.0% 83.0% 88.1% 60.0% 75.5% 77.6% 80 50.0% 60 40.0% 43.5% 30.0% 28.0% 40 20.0% 20.0% 20 10.0% 2.3% 0 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: BTRC & EBLSL Research Source: BTRC & EBLSL Research 1 In 2016, SIM re-registration through the biometric process has been a major development in telecom sector. Due to bio-metric reregistration of SIMs in 2016, total number of active subscription dropped by 5% during the year as a number of subscribers did not complete the bio-metric reregistration within stipulated timeframe. In terms of performance, Grameenphone was ahead of other operators and 97% of its subscribers were re-registered through the bio-metric process. The growth in total number of subscriptions may slow down in next few years as a result of implementation of MNP service in Bangladesh in the late 2018 but real industry penetration is expected to continue its steady growth. Along with stable voice traffic growth, market for mobile internet is enjoying hefty growth driven by high subscriber addition and increased penetration Bangladesh has advanced significantly in internet connectivity. However, data penetration is still far below than other countries in the region. According to GSMA, only around one-in-five Bangladeshi’s are subscribed to mobile internet connection in 2017. As of December, 2018 there are around 85.6 million mobile internet connection in Bangladesh i.e., 54.5% of mobile users are now using internet with cellular phones. This significant deviation between mobile data connection penetration and mobile data user penetration is due to having multiple number of connections by the same users. The total number of Internet Subscribers has reached 91.348 million at the end of December, 2018. Of the total connections, 93.7% are through the mobile network, 6.3% through the internet service providers (ISP & PSTN) and only 0.06% through WiMAX that is available in cities. Qubee, Banglalion Communications and Ollo has been providing WiMAX connection in Bangladesh. Recently, Qubee has suspended its services for individual clients. Since the launching of 3G, WiMAX service providers are experiencing de-growth in subscription. Active WiMAX connection fell down from 0.504 million in 2013 to 0.083 million in 2018. Mobile Data Subscription Trend Mobile Data Consumption (AMBPU) 1400 GP Robi Banglalink Mobile Data User % of Industry sub. base 1149 100 100% 1200 1182 986 90 90% 1000 80 80% 807 851 949 70 70% 754 800 621 660 803 60 60% 712 50 50% 600 630 734 40 40% 531 684 463 600 30 30% 400 580 523 20 20% 10 10% 200 364 0 0% 304 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jan-18 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 May-17 May-18 May-16 2017 2018 Source: BTRC & EBLSL Research *AMBPU=Avg. MB per user per month; Source: Company Disclosures, Compiled by The Daily Star Last 5 years CAGR in total number of internet subscribers in Bangladesh was 20.6% and that of mobile internet was 20.1%. Contribution of data revenue to total revenue of the country’s leading mobile operator GP increased to 18.9% as on 2018 (up to 9 months) compared to meagre 3.4% in the year 2013, reflecting the overall industry scenario. Data Subscription in the last 2 months (November & December) experienced marginal decline due to lower internet use prior to national election. 4G Subscription is yet below expectation, however, 3G data consumption getting momentum after launching 4G The 4G/LTE spectrum auction took place in the beginning of 2018 and 4G service was formally launched in February 19, 2018 by the three leading market players and state-run Teletalk also launched the service in December, 2018. 4G is the fourth generation of wireless mobile telecommunication technology, succeeding 3G, as defined by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Since its first commercial launch in 2009, 4G has become the fastest developing system in the history of mobile communication in the world. However, even after launching 4G technology in Bangladesh, 3G coverage still dominates while 2G still poses handsome market share. The internet users in the country grew considerably in 2013 when the 3G internet service was launched. However, the number of internet subscribers grew slowly in 2018 despite the launch of faster internet service, 4G. High prices of 4G enabled devices, lower network coverage, and poor service quality are the reason for slow growth in 4G. 2 Earlier, the regulator provided 3G license to 4 operators on 8th September 2013 under the 3G auction. Although, state owned operator Teletalk has been providing 3G services in Bangladesh since October 2012. Since the roll out of 3G in Bangladesh, cellular phone based data service has been enjoying robust growth. As per the BTRC’s latest statistics, cited in the New Age1, the number of 4G and 3G subscribers reached 11.7 million and 63.5 million respectively at the end of December, 2018 meaning only 13.7% of the country’s mobile internet users are using the fourth generation (4G) mobile phone service even after ten months of the launch of the service while 74.2% mobile data users using 3G internet and rest 12.1% using 2G internet. However, according to the leading mobile operator GP, the 3G data volume consumption witnessing significant growth after launching 4G by the operator even though 3G subscriber count witnessed a de-growth due to upgradation to 4G. 3G Users in Bangladesh (in million) 3G subscriber 3G as % of total mobile data subscriber 66.6 66.0 65.6 65.5 65.4 64.9 70.0 64.3 95% 63.1 61.5 60.6 59.2 57.3 60.0 85% 49.7 50.0 84% 86% 87% 86% 75% 82% 82% 82% 83% 84% 82% 81% 36.1 35.6 79% 40.0 34.6 65% 33.8 32.9 32.3 31.1 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.3 72% 27.8 30.0 55% 20.0 45% 52% 54% 54% 54% 54% 49% 48% 50% 52% 10.0 48% 35% 47% 44% 0.0 25% Jul-16 Jul-17 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Sep-16 Sep-17 Oct-17 Oct-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Dec-16 Dec-17 Aug-16 Aug-17 Nov-16 Nov-17 Mar-17 Mar-18 May-17 May-18 Source: Annual Report, Posts & Telecommunications Division, GoB Under the 4G rollout obligation, the operators will have to take 4G network to all divisional headquarters within the first nine months of getting the license and to district headquarters within 18 months.