Scowcroft Paper No. 18 The Shifting Sands of the World Order By the Right Honorable Sir John Major KG CH For more information: bush.tamu.edu/Scowcroft/ The Shifting Sands of the World Order By the Right Honorable Sir John Major KG CH Foreword This Scowcroft Paper was written as a presentation, and read by Sir John Major on Friday No- vember 22, 2019, at the Bush School of Government and Public Service on behalf of the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs. Sir John Major served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1990 through 1997. Prior to that, he served as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Foreign Secretary. He was the Member of Parliament for Huntingdonshire from 1979 until his retirement from politics in 2001. He is currently one of the Presidents of Chatham House, and serves as chairman for a number of Advisory Boards. It’s always a pleasure for me to come to built on the agreement of the UN Charter at America. My father was brought up in Phila- the San Francisco Opera House in the mid- delphia in the 1880s, when my grandfather 1940s. The overall purpose was to establish was helping to build the Carnegie Steel rules-based organisations to monitor and Works. It’s an especial pleasure to be here at channel international behaviour after the Texas A&M, and I’m most grateful to the chaos of a World War. It was led by Amer- University, the Bush School of Government, ica, and was visionary. But many of those and the Scowcroft Institute, for their kind in- organisations have now lost – or are losing – vitation. the authority that once they had. They are seen as out of date, and in need of reform. It was easy to accept, for George and Bar- Some are also facing attack from populism bara Bush – so much a part of this Univer- and growing nationalism. sity in life and beyond – were much treas- ured friends of mine for the last 30 years of Certainly, the United Nations is out of date. their lives: and so, still, is General It has five Permanent Members of the Secu- Scowcroft. And, of all the politicians I rity Council, each of which has a Single Na- know, George – with his innate decency and tion State veto on policy. These Members – civility – was the leader who looked into the America, Russia, China, France and Britain future with the shrewdest eye, and the great- – may have been the dominant nations of the est concern for those who would follow him. world in 1945 but – 74 years on – it is unre- George Bush was an internationalist – a true alistic to argue that is still so. Nations such citizen of the world – but he would, I be- as Japan, Germany and India are growing lieve, be concerned at what he would see to- powers that believe they should also be Per- day. As am I. manent Members. And they have a strong case. And where – as our world evolves – is And so, in homage to George, here in his fi- the representation of Africa or the Middle nal place of rest, I’d like to set out those East? So far, that too is missing. concerns – before inviting your questions. For years, our life has been bound by our Yet, if the UN is to perform its function – liberal-based international order, which was 1 The Shifting Sands of the World Order and, in particular, “to save succeeding gen- close down an internationally agreed dispute erations from the scourge of war” (and one resolution system. But that is the Alice-in- look at Syria or Yemen shows how vital this Wonderland world in which we are currently is) – then it needs the authority to act, which living. cannot be ensured without a legitimate struc- We are right to worry about trade. If trade is ture in place that is acceptable to all mem- disrupted, no-one wins. The US National bers. A welcome advance would be to en- Bureau of Economic Research warns the large the number of Permanent Members, risk of protectionism is greater now than at and abolish the Single Nation veto that can any time since 1945. They estimate that, last so often make the UN seem irrelevant. Rus- year alone, new tariffs cost the American sia, for example, creates mischief in Eastern consumer and firms a simply astounding Europe and the Middle East, yet can veto $688 billion. Moreover, the fact that the US any UN policy designed to rein her in. That – the world’s predominant economic Nation is in no-one’s interest but Russia’s. Sadly, State – now has higher tariffs than any other none of the Permanent Five is arguing for a competitor, raises the risk of other countries reform that would limit its own influence turning to protectionism. Where America and, unless such reform is demanded by, goes, others follow. China and America are ideally, America – or another Member of the in dispute and – as global supply chains are Permanent Five – I cannot see it happening. disrupted – Japan, Singapore and Hong But, for the sake of good world order, it Kong all suffer from falls in exports. Eu- should be. rope, too, is affected – notably Germany, The World Trade Organisation was only es- with her export-oriented economy, and her tablished in 1995, yet already faces impo- motor manufacturing outlets in the United tence as a number of Member States under- States. mine it – including America and China. China is complicit, too. When China joined America was always wary of the concept of the WTO, it was expected she would con- a trade body. In the 1940s, attempts to form form to international rules: thus far, she has an international trade organisation failed, be- not. She is widely believed to appropriate ing beaten back by opposition from Con- other countries’ intellectual property; their gress. Today, President Trump refuses to ap- technology transfer; as well as favouring and prove the appointment of Judges to serve on subsidising her own – often State-run – in- the Dispute Resolution Panel as their prede- dustries. Her defence – that she behaves cessors become statute barred, and yet that properly – is unconvincing, and hard to Appellate Body is the cornerstone of the dis- credit. But her behaviour does illustrate the pute resolution system. By December, only importance of the example America sets, be- one Judge will remain in post and, unless cause China excuses her own actions by America's policy changes, the adjudication pointing out that – over the last 30 years – of disputes will cease altogether. At a time America has imposed three times as many when America and China are engaged in a non-tariff protectionist measures as China. trade dispute that is adversely affecting many third countries, it is disappointing to In the spirit of “America First” and “China 2 The Shifting Sands of the World Order First”, both countries tend to oppose multi- it is not surprising that the majority of peo- lateral trade deals because – being so eco- ple feel Government has failed them – even nomically powerful – they are able to domi- though it was the action taken by Govern- nate the terms of bilateral deals. Despite ments and Central Banks that prevented a that, elsewhere, multilateral deals still being systemic collapse in our financial systems – made. The 28 Member State EU has reached and ruin for many. This perceived failure trade deals with Japan, Brazil, and the MER- runs alongside – and has probably done COSUR ** countries of Latin America. much to fuel – the growth in populism, and And, in Africa, a Continentwide free trade the acceptance of populist governments of- area has been agreed to bring together 1.3 ten led by so-called “strong men”. billion people in a $3.4 trillion economic I have little regard for populism. Typically, zone. This could, say the IMF, “be an eco- the populist: nomic game-changer for Africa”. But, as yet – in our world of relentlessly negative news • makes promises that cannot be met sensation – this remarkable and positive de- • thrives on creating division velopment has gone largely unnoticed. • magnifies discontent The international order also faces chal- • undermines the judiciary and the rule lenges to the authority of governments, and of law the concept of democracy itself. Many peo- • attacks the structure of Government; ple thought the advance of democracy – that • condones violent opinions; is, Western-style democracy – was unstop- • penalises minorities pable. They were wrong. Democracy has • condemns unpopular views been in mild retreat for some years. The • by-passes long-established and legit- United Nations has reported that 89 coun- imate authority. tries have seen a reduction in democracy and human rights, while only one-third of that Populism is popular only until it fails – as it number had seen positive improvements. always does – because it is founded on dis- There is a more widespread antipathy to honesty and self-interest, and fuelled by ex- ploiting grievance, exercising malice, and Government today than I have ever known. encouraging dissent. But a time of disillu- The 2008 financial crash led to a disregard sion is fertile soil for populist leaders, be- for conventional Western democracy, as the growth in living standards faltered after dec- cause they promise to deliver “hope” – the ades in which – year on year – they had im- most potent of battle cries. This promise is never kept, of course. But that only becomes proved. Figures from my own country – the clear when they have been elected to govern United Kingdom – illustrate the point.