www.camsys.com MTC REGIONAL GOODS MOVEMENT PLAN Task 3C – Identify Gaps, Needs, Issues, and Opportunities Draft Technical Memorandum prepared for Metropolitan Transportation Commission prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with AECOM Transportation Analytics MTC Regional Goods Movement Plan Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Summary of Needs and Issues in the Bay Area.................................................. 1-3 1.2 Opportunities for Bay Area ............................................................................ 1-24 1.3 Stakeholders Issues Identification Process ...................................................... 1-30 2.0 Goods Movement Corridors Assessment ......................................................... 2-1 2.1 The I-880 Corridor............................................................................................ 2-1 2.2 The I-80 Corridor ........................................................................................... 2-32 2.3 The I-580 Corridor .......................................................................................... 2-56 2.4 The U.S. 101 Corridor ..................................................................................... 2-78 2.5 The I-680 Corridor ........................................................................................ 2-103 2.6 The SR 12/SR 37 Corridors ............................................................................. 2-115 2.7 The SR 152 Corridor ...................................................................................... 2-127 2.8 The SR 4 Corridor.......................................................................................... 2-137 3.0 Cross-Cutting Goods Movement Needs and Opportunities ............................... 3-1 3.1 Arterial Operations/Use of ITS technology/Urban Goods Delivery ....................3-3 3.2 Air Quality and Environmental Impacts ............................................................ 3-7 3.3 Sea-level Rise and Vulnerability ..................................................................... 3-22 3.4 Industrial Land Shortage................................................................................. 3-27 3.5 Crude Oil by Rail ............................................................................................ 3-28 Appendix A. Data and Methodology .............................................................. A-1 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i MTC Regional Goods Movement Plan List of Tables Table 1.1 Summary One-on-One Interest Group Outreach ....................................... 1-31 Table 2.1 I-880 Corridor Summary.............................................................................. 2-2 Table 2.2 Corridor Evaluation ..................................................................................... 2-8 Table 2.3 Practical Capacity of Rail Lines in I-880 Corridor ....................................... 2-18 Table 2.4 Average Daily Train Volumes in the I-880 Corridor .................................... 2-18 Table 2.5 Rail Lines Level of Service in the I-880 Corridor ......................................... 2-19 Table 2.6 Future Train Volumes in the I-880 Corridor ............................................... 2-21 Table 2.7 Rail Lines 2020 Forecast Level of Service in the I-880 Corridor .................. 2-22 Table 2.8 At-Grade Crossings Accidents on the Along the I-880 Rail Corridor .......... 2-25 Table 2.9 At-Grade Crossings Hourly Traffic Delay ................................................... 2-26 Table 2.10 I-80 Corridor Summary .............................................................................. 2-33 Table 2.11 Corridor Evaluation ................................................................................... 2-38 Table 2.12 Practical Capacity of Rail Lines in the I-80 Corridor ................................... 2-47 Table 2.13 Average Daily Train Volumes in the I-80 Corridor ...................................... 2-48 Table 2.14 Rail Lines Level of Service in the I-80 Corridor ........................................... 2-48 Table 2.15 Future Train Volumes in the I-80 Corridor ................................................. 2-50 Table 2.16 Rail Lines 2020 Forecast Level of Service in the I-80 Corridor .................... 2-50 Table 2.17 At-Grade Crossings Accidents on the I-80 Corridor ................................... 2-53 Table 2.18 At-Grade Crossings Hourly Traffic Delay ................................................... 2-55 Table 2.19 I-580 Corridor Summary ............................................................................. 2-57 Table 2.20 Corridor Evaluation ................................................................................... 2-62 Table 2.21 Practical Capacity of Rail Lines in I-580 Corridor ........................................ 2-71 Table 2.22 Average Daily Train Volumes in the I-580 Corridor .................................... 2-72 Table 2.23 Rail Lines Level of Service in the I-880 Corridor ......................................... 2-72 Table 2.24 Future Train Volumes in the I-580 Corridor ............................................... 2-74 Table 2.25 Rail Lines 2020 Forecast Level of Service in the I-580 Corridor .................. 2-74 Table 2.26 U.S. 101 Corridor Summary ....................................................................... 2-78 Table 2.27 Corridor Evaluation ................................................................................... 2-83 Table 2.28 Practical Capacity of Rail Lines in U.S. 101 Corridor ................................... 2-93 Table 2.29 Average Daily Train Volumes in the U.S. 101 Corridor ............................... 2-93 Table 2.30 Rail Lines Level of Service in the U.S. 101 Corridor .................................... 2-94 Table 2.31 Future Train Volumes in the U.S. 101 Corridor ........................................... 2-96 Table 2.32 Rail Lines 2020 Forecast Level of Service in the U.S. 101 Corridor ............. 2-97 Table 2.33 I-680 Corridor Summary .......................................................................... 2-103 Table 2.34 Corridor Evaluation ................................................................................. 2-108 Table 2.35 SR 12/SR 37 Corridor Summary ................................................................ 2-115 Table 2.36 Corridor Evaluation .................................................................................. 2-121 Table 2.37 SR 152 Corridor Summary ........................................................................ 2-127 Table 2.38 Corridor Evaluation .................................................................................. 2-132 Table 2.39 SR 4 Corridor Summary............................................................................ 2-138 Table 2.40 Corridor Evaluation .................................................................................. 2-143 Table 2.41 Practical Capacity of Rail Lines in the SR 4 Corridor ................................. 2-151 Table 2.42 Average Daily Train Volumes in the SR 4 Corridor .................................... 2-151 Table 2.43 Rail Lines Level of Service in the SR 4 Corridor ......................................... 2-152 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii MTC Regional Goods Movement Plan Table 2.44 Future Train Volumes in the SR 4 Corridor ...............................................2-154 Table 2.45 Rail Lines 2020 Forecast Level of Service in the SR 4 Corridor ..................2-154 Table 2.46 At-Grade Crossings Accidents on the SR 4 Corridor .................................2-156 Table 2.47 At-Grade Crossings Hourly Traffic Delay .................................................. 2-157 Table 3.1 Cross-Cutting Needs Summary Evaluation .................................................. 3-1 Table 3.2 Average Potential Cancer Risk (per Million) in West Oakland by Source Areas in 2005, with Revisions Based on Truck Survey (2008 to 2009) ................... 3-15 Table 3.3 CARB Diesel Air Toxic Control Measures for Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Equipment and Ships ................................................................................................... 3-17 Table 3.4 Emission Changes for Port of Oakland, 2005 to 2012 ................................. 3-21 Table 3.5 Summary of Shoreline Vulnerabilities ....................................................... 3-26 iv Cambridge Systematics, Inc. MTC Regional Goods Movement Plan List of Figures Figure 1.1 Goods Movement Functions and Modes ..................................................... 1-4 Figure 1.2 Bay Area Corridor Delay and Congested Segments ..................................... 1-7 Figure 1.3 Bay Area Corridor Segment Reliability ........................................................ 1-8 Figure 1.4 Bay Area Corridor Bridge and Pavement Conditions .................................. 1-11 Figure 1.5 Bay Area Corridor Truck –Involved Crashes ................................................ 1-12 Figure 1.6 Bay Area Class I Rail and Subdivisions ........................................................ 1-15 Figure 1.7 Bay Area Rail Existing Levels of Service ..................................................... 1-17 Figure 1.8 Bay Area Rail 2020 Levels of Service .......................................................... 1-18 Figure 2.1 Employment Index for Goods Movement-Dependent Industries, I-880 Number of Employees, 2012 ........................................................................