Green Energy and Technology Maurizio Tiepolo Alessandro Pezzoli Vieri Tarchiani Editors Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics Green Energy and Technology More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8059 Maurizio Tiepolo • Alessandro Pezzoli Vieri Tarchiani Editors Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics Editors Maurizio Tiepolo Vieri Tarchiani DIST, Politecnico and University IBIMET-CNR of Turin Florence Turin Italy Italy Alessandro Pezzoli DIST, Politecnico and University of Turin Turin Italy ISSN 1865-3529 ISSN 1865-3537 (electronic) Green Energy and Technology ISBN 978-3-319-59095-0 ISBN 978-3-319-59096-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-59096-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017940819 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017. 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Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To Silvia Macchi, our esteemed colleague at Sapienza University of Rome, involved in climate planning and development aid, who passed away during the final preparation of the book. We would like to dedicate this volume to her memory. Foreword The adverse impacts on human-induced climate change are a global problem with different impacts in different localities around the world. Hence, adapting to those adverse impacts of climate change is both a local and a global problem. At the global level, we have agreed to include tackling climate change as one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG13) and also agreed the Paris agreement on climate change. However, the success of meeting those global goals will depend on every village, town, and city finding its own adaptation solutions and putting them in place. Unfortunately, we are still lagging behind in being able to do this successfully although many efforts are being tried around the world. This publication tries to learn and share lessons from many of the local-level efforts around the world. These lessons will be very useful for practitioners in towns and cities around the world who are also struggling to find adaptation solutions in their own localities. Saleemul Huk IIED-International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK ICCCAD-International Centre for Climate Change and Development, Independent University, Dhaka, Bangladesh vii Preface This book presents the most recent results of a research started at the end of 2011 in Africa South of the Sahara and then extended to the whole tropics. The focus of our work is climate planning. With this term, we mean all those plans to limit climate change (mitigation and sustainable action plans), to protect human settlements against its impacts (emergency, risk reduction, adaptation plans, and resilience strategies) and to pursue both the medium-term (municipal development plans) and long-term (comprehensive, general, and master plans) aims. During these years, we have organized three UICCA—Urban Impact of Climate Change in Africa—conferences (Turin 2011, 2013, 2016) to share and discuss the first results of our work with other similar experiences, involving over one hundred researchers, various officials and local administrators, as well as numerous students. A selection of the reports presented at the 3rd UICCA conference is provided here. The book tackles a topic which is going to be critical in the years to come: How to implement the 11th Sustainable Development Goal—SDG (2015). We are referring to the target which states “By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans toward inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030, holistic disaster risk manage- ment at all levels” (United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 11). Today, the debate and literature on SDGs is focused on monitoring the achieve- ment of the goals. The aim of our work, on the other hand, is to draw attention on how to reach the above-mentioned target of SDGs at 2030. And the reason lies in the fact the tools used so far to center the target lack efficiency and the cities which will most need to use them have little or no knowledge of them. Our work raises the matter of the quality of climate planning. And this looks at the analyses prior to planning, decision making for planning, and the innovation of climate measures. However, it also looks at transversal topics, such as IT systems and planning methods. For example, we focus on the transition from participated planning built upon traditional knowledge only, which still prevails in the Least Developed Countries (LCDs), to that which integrates this with technical-scientific knowledge, which is better suited to identifying the ix x Preface Case studies investigated in the book: Casamance, Senegal (1), Tillaberi region, Niger (2), Gotheye (3) and Ouro Gueladjio (4), Arsi region, Ethiopia (5), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (6), Malawi (7), Haiti (8), La Paz, Mexico (9), Thailand (10), Tropical (T), Subtropical (ST), Boreal (B) zones nature of the climate change, and the expected impacts of adaptation and risk reduction measures. The attention of the book is aimed at the tropical LDCs in that they contain the cities less able to limit the emissions responsible for climate change and to cope with the impacts of the latter but which, at the same time, will be the context in which the biggest transformations in human settlements will take place within the next 15 years. The book has eighteen chapters which examine 10 case studies (see Figure). Chapter 1 (Tiepolo, Pezzoli, and Tarchiani) assesses the state of application of the 11th Sustainable Development Goal in the tropics and the prospects, the lines of research, and the challenges for renewing local planning to face climate change. There are two parts. Part I, centered on climatic monitoring and the assessment of the various components, is made up of eight chapters. Chapter 2 (Sabatini) discusses some of the main issues to improve climate observation network planning, especially in remote and inhospitable regions with a focus on Niger and Nepal representing the two climatic extremes. Chapter 3 (Bacci and Mouhaimouni) proposes a comparative analysis of the hazards between present and future, concentrating particularly on the extreme rainfall events and drought on the Western Niger. Chapter 4 (Bacci) presents an agrometeorological analysis as a tool for characterizing the climatic risks to suit the rice-growing system in southern Senegal (Casamance). Chapter 5 (Belcore, Calvo, Canessa, and Pezzoli) estimates vulnerability to climate change in 3 woredas of the Oromia region (Ethiopia), whereas data on vulnerability to drought are lacking. Chapter 6 (Tiepolo and Bacci) presents a method for tracking climate change vulnerability in the 125 rural municipalities of Haiti using open data. Preface xi Chapter 7 (Demarchi, Cristofori, and Facello) presents an early warning system for urban Malawi integrating satellite-derived precipitation data and geospatial reference datasets. Chapter 8 (Vignaroli) proposes a Web-based approach for early drought risk identification using freely available rainfall estimations and forecasts to strengthen the mechanism for the prevention and management of the food crisis in Sahel. Chapter 9 (Franzetti, Bagliani, and Pezzoli) tackles the climatic characterization of Thailand. Part II of this book also collects eight chapters which look mainly at decision-making tools for local climate planning and innovation in climatic measures. Chapter 10 (Tiepolo) presents the state of climate planning in 338 large- and medium-sized cities in the tropics using the QCPI—Quality of Climate Planning Index. Chapter 11 (Tiepolo and Braccio) presents a case of multirisk analysis and evaluation in rural Niger integrating local and scientific knowledge. Chapter 12 (Fiorillo and Tarchiani) presents a simplified method for assessing flood hazard and related risks using open-access tools and data in a rural munici- pality in south Western Niger. Chapter 13 (Faldi and Macchi) presents an application for forecasting and par- ticipatory backcasting methods for assessing urban people’s vulnerability to water access in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Chapter 14 (Emperador, Orozco Noriega, Ponte, and Vargas Moreno) presents a method for climate risk reduction mainstreaming at La Paz, Mexico.