ABSTRACT PARET, KYLE EDWARD. Models for Improving the Integration of Spontaneous Volunteers in Disaster Response. (Under the direction of Maria E. Mayorga). In the wake of a disaster, people from nearby areas often converge to assist the affected com- munity. Spontaneous volunteers (SVs) are not affiliated with relief agencies but are in a unique position to provide invaluable aid at a crucial point in the disaster cycle. Unfortunately, these volunteers are often ineffectively used or refused altogether. Existing emergency management plans often fail to take SVs into account due to negative perceptions and uncertainty around SV convergence. Despite SVs best intentions, they can cause more harm than good if volunteer sites are not prepared to integrate them. Disaster management plans can benefit from improved strategies to integrate the influx of SVs. This dissertation develops two models designed to improve the planning and integration of SVs in disaster response. First, a multi-server queueing model is formulated to represent the dynamics of assigning SVs to tasks in a post-disaster setting. In particular, we consider the stochastic arrival of demand tasks and volunteers, whose time in service is also stochastic. These assumptions mimic disaster relief tasks such as the distribution of relief items, where both donations and volunteers arrive randomly. We generate an optimal policy for assigning volunteers to tasks using a Markov Decision Process. Using simulation, we compare the optimal policy against several heuristic policies and discuss real-world implications. We then develop an agent-based model of SV convergence, designed to better represent the decision-making process of potential SVs during disaster response. We model individual agent motivation, communication, and site choice behaviors explicitly. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior, we evaluate an agent’s willingness to volunteer based on their behavioral intention in a given period. By implementing realistic agent behaviors, we can more effectively represent how and why volunteers appear at volunteer sites. We conduct verification and validation of the model through scenario evaluation, parameter calibration, and practitioner review. We conduct a statistical analysis of relevant model parameters to determine which internal and external factors most significantly affect SV responses. The model bridges a gap between operations research/management science, emergency management, and social science and provides disaster managers a new tool to evaluate volunteer integration plans. Finally, we conduct an analysis of strategic and operational level questions relevant to emergency management practitioners. Three unique scenarios are simulated in the agent-based model, using real-world data collected during Hurricane Florence. Results are summarized and implications related to disaster plans are discussed. The results can help communicate and educate community partners at the local level on the value of SV participation in disaster response. We close with a brief examination of how built-in simulation optimization capabilities can be used to create a decision support tool for messaging. With continued practitioner involvement, the SV Convergence model can be used to inform and improve existing disaster management plans. This work contributes to the field of Operations Research/Management Science in disaster response. © Copyright 2020 by Kyle Edward Paret All Rights Reserved Models for Improving the Integration of Spontaneous Volunteers in Disaster Response by Kyle Edward Paret A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty of North Carolina State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Industrial Engineering Raleigh, North Carolina 2020 APPROVED BY: Michael Kay Hong Wan Sara Shashaani Maria E. Mayorga Chair of Advisory Committee DEDICATION In memory of my grandmother, Mildred H. Paret, an engineer ahead of her time. ii BIOGRAPHY Kyle Paret is a doctoral candidate in the Edwards P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University. Born and raised in eastern Pennsylvania, Kyle received his bachelor’s degree in Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering (Magna Cum Laude and Honors) from the Pennsylvania State University in 2010. Prior to joining the Ph.D. program in 2014, Kyle worked as an Operations Research Analyst for the Department of Defense. His research interests include applying simulation models and stochastic processes to support complex real-world decision-making. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want to thank my adviser, Dr. Mayorga, for her support and patience through good and bad times. Her guidance over the past four-plus years has helped me grow as a researcher and become a more disciplined writer. I would also like to thank Dr. Kay for providing advice and direction in my research and throughout my entire graduate journey. Thanks to my other committee members, Dr. Shashaani and Dr. Wan, for their feedback and suggestions, which helped improve and shape my dissertation research. I’ve always felt that there is more to graduate school than just conducting research. Thanks to all my friends in 444, 373, 375, and 458 for the conversations, suggestions, and non-research related distractions (Catan, Spikeball, Magic, Hearthstone, etc.). Special shout-out to Surfsol- jah13, Codex77, Drewpy, and Armnhammer7 for all the late-night “study sessions”. Thank you Eva, owner of the snack stand in 1911 Building, for the frequent chats and special order vanilla Coke sodas. These friendships made my graduate experience so enjoyable and something I will look back on fondly. Finally, I would like to thank my family - I couldn’t have done it without you. My parents, Cindy and Ron, who raised me to be so curious and questioning, and supported my academic pursuits. Jack Goggins and Olivia Wong for their encouragement, child care, and home-cooked meals during the final year of my dissertation research. My wife Julia for putting up with (and encouraging) me through all the long hours and stressful times during my graduate journey. Last but certainly not least - thanks to my son Russell for constantly reminding me what is truly important in life. This dissertation was made possible thanks to the funding support from the SMART Schol- arship Program, NSF Rapid Grants (#1760193 and #1901699), and the NCSU Dissertation Completion Grant. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ........................................ vii List of Figures ....................................... ix Chapter 1 Introduction ................................. 1 1.1 Motivation..................................... 1 1.2 Spontaneous Volunteer Convergence and Integration............... 3 1.3 Models of Spontaneous Volunteers in Disaster Response ............ 4 1.4 Document Outline................................. 6 Chapter 2 Assigning Spontaneous Volunteers to Relief Efforts under Uncertainty9 2.1 Introduction.................................... 9 2.2 Literature Review................................. 11 2.2.1 Disaster Operations Management..................... 11 2.2.2 Volunteer Scheduling........................... 13 2.2.3 Queuing Theory.............................. 15 2.3 Model Development................................ 17 2.3.1 Stability.................................. 19 2.3.2 Optimal Policy .............................. 20 2.4 Heuristic Policies................................. 23 2.5 Simulation Model................................. 25 2.6 Computational Analysis and Discussion ..................... 26 2.6.1 Sensitivity Analysis............................ 30 2.6.2 Policy Recommendation ......................... 36 2.7 Conclusions.................................... 37 2.7.1 Limitations ................................ 38 Chapter 3 Agent-Based Model of Spontaneous Volunteer Convergence ...... 39 3.1 Introduction.................................... 39 3.2 Spontaneous Volunteer Convergence Model................... 41 3.2.1 Purpose.................................. 41 3.2.2 Entities, State Variables, and Scales ................... 42 3.2.3 Process Overview............................. 46 3.2.4 Agent Decisions to Volunteer....................... 48 3.2.5 Site Choice Behaviors .......................... 55 3.2.6 Model Outputs at the System Level ................... 57 3.3 Verification and Validation ............................ 57 3.3.1 Verification ................................ 57 3.3.2 Validation................................. 58 3.4 Analysis and Discussion ............................. 65 3.5 Conclusions.................................... 70 v 3.5.1 Limitations ................................ 71 3.6 Acknowledgements................................ 72 Chapter 4 Application of SV Convergence Model to Disaster Planning Scenarios . 73 4.1 Introduction.................................... 73 4.2 Research Questions and Extensions........................ 75 4.2.1 Volunteer Reception Centers....................... 76 4.2.2 Local Agency Coordination ....................... 78 4.2.3 Volunteer Messaging........................... 80 4.3 Scenarios, Results, and Discussion........................ 82 4.3.1 Importance of Volunteer Reception Centers in SV Assignment . 83 4.3.2 Value of Local Agency Coordination................... 87 4.3.3 Messaging Strategies and Site Capacity ................. 90 4.3.4 Optimal Size of Weekly Messages.................... 93 4.4 Conclusions.................................... 97 4.4.1 Limitations ...............................