UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL INSTITUTO DE INFORMÁTICA PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM COMPUTAÇÃO ROSALDO JOSÉ FERNANDES ROSSETTI A BDI–based approach for the assessment of drivers’ decision–making in commuter scenarios Thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doutor em Ciência da Computação Prof. Dr. Sergio Bampi Advisor Prof. Dr. Helena Beatriz Bettella Cybis Coadvisor Porto Alegre, November 2002 CIP – CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION Rossetti, Rosaldo José Fernandes A BDI–based approach for the assessment of drivers’ decision–making in commuter scenarios / Rosaldo José Fernan- des Rossetti. – Porto Alegre: PPGC da UFRGS, 2002. 187 f.: il. Thesis (Ph.D.) – Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Computação, Porto Alegre, BR– RS, 2002. Advisor: Sergio Bampi; Coadvisor: Helena Beatriz Bettella Cybis. 1. Multi-agent systems. 2. BDI architecture. 3. Decision- making. 4. Intelligent transportation systems. 5. Traffic mod- elling. 6. Microscopic traffic simulation. I. Bampi, Sergio. II. Cy- bis, Helena Beatriz Bettella. III. Título. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL Reitora: Profa. Wrana Maria Panizzi Pró-Reitor de Ensino: Prof. José Carlos Ferraz Hennemann Pró-Reitor Adjunto de Pós-Graduação: Prof. Jaime Evaldo Fensterseifer Diretor do Instituto de Informática: Prof. Philippe Olivier Alexandre Navaux Coordenador do PPGC: Prof. Carlos Alberto Heuser Bibliotecária-chefe do Instituto de Informática: Beatriz Regina Bastos Haro ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work is the result of a great effort and a paramount investment on a career project. However, bringing it into reality was only possible with the contribution, support, and friendship of many, many people. To my supervisor, Dr. Sergio Bampi, a grateful and especial thanks. He has been a key presence from my earliest days at UFRGS. I have definitely learnt a lot from his research experience and professional character. Being always accessible and providing his students with a paternal friendship, constant support, encouragement, and patience are remarkable characteristics of him. Dr. Helena Cybis, my co-supervisor, has also been a very important friend. Her expertise helped me to better understand the complex nature of the application domain and fed interesting discussions on the course of my work. During the doctoral programme, I had the opportunity to be a research student at the University of Leeds and to interact with the Network Modelling Group of the Institute for Transport Studies. Dr. Dirck Van Vliet and Dr. Honghui Liu supervised my work there and helped me to build the roadmap to my thesis proposal. That was a pleasant experience I will always remember. To Dr. Van Vliet and Dr. Liu all my gratitude for their interest in my work and encouragement that made my research internship in Leeds a successful and enriching experience of life. Also, my office-mates Fang, Clare, and Il-ho made me feel at home from the beginning, providing me with an excellent work atmosphere. My sincere thanks to Alexandre Martins, for his friendship and pleasant discussions on all the subjects related to data modelling, and also for his invaluable tips on software development with Java. Dr. Rafael Bordini and Dr. Ana Bazzan have also contributed with invaluable comments and fruitful discussions on the soundness of the approach pro- posed. I gratefully thank Rodrigo Machado, for his help on the implementation of the first simulation framework prototype. He presents wonderful programming skills and great potential to be explored. I could not forget Eliana Senna, my aunt Neca, who gave me all the support that I needed while settling myself in Leeds. She became a very special and important friend since then. I would also like to express my gratitude to Isidório, Jutta and Rafael Gamba for their kind assistance, at all times, that turned Porto Alegre into my second home. In special, I dedicate this work to my family, my parents Adroaldo and Rosália, my brother Júnior, and my sister Lialda, whose emotional support, encouragement, and pa- tience made this work possible. My father, a remarkable man, was the first scientist that has inspired my research career. And also a special dedication goes to Susana, my sweet- heart, for her love, support, and enthusiasm. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from CNPq and CAPES, the Brazilian agencies for R&D that partially provided the funds to cover the expenses of this work, both in Porto Alegre and in Leeds. The financial supports from FAPERGS, Insituto de Informática of UFRGS, and the Institute for Transport Studies of the University of Leeds were also important and helped me with the publication of partial results of this thesis at workshops and conferences. I believe this is one of the most difficult parts to write after finishing such a hard and extensive work. Even if I wanted to mention everyone’s name here, I would certainly fail in doing so. Therefore, I will not even try it, but I would like to acknowledge the support and encouragement I received from so many people, either directly or indirectly, from the beginning of my research life to the final results of my doctoral thesis. Thank God, for the gift of life! And, to all of you, my grateful thanks. The question of whether computers can think is like the question of whether submarines can swim —EDSGER WYBE DIJKSTRA (1930-2002) CONTENTS LISTOFABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS . 9 LISTOFFIGURES................................ 11 LISTOFTABLES ................................ 13 ABSTRACT ................................... 14 RESUMO..................................... 15 1 INTRODUCTION .............................. 16 1.1 Overview ................................... 16 1.2 Motivation .................................. 18 1.3 Goals ...................................... 19 1.4 Methodology ................................. 20 1.5 Challenging issues .............................. 21 1.6 Structure of the thesis ............................ 22 2 INTELLIGENTTRANSPORTATIONSYSTEMS . 23 2.1 Overview ................................... 23 2.2 Brief history .................................. 24 2.3 Advantages of ITS .............................. 24 2.4 Basic architecture for ITS .......................... 25 2.5 SomeexamplesofITS ............................ 27 2.6 ITS related issues ............................... 29 2.7 Advanced Traveller Information Systems ................. 30 2.7.1 AdvantagesofusingTIS . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 31 2.7.2 CategoriesofTIS .............................. 32 2.7.3 Typesofinformation ............................ 32 2.7.4 Typesofsources............................... 34 2.7.5 Typesofbehaviour ............................. 35 2.7.6 RequirementsforTIS ............................ 38 2.7.7 FrameworktoassessITStechnologies . ..... 39 2.8 Summary ................................... 42 3 MULTI–AGENTSYSTEMS. 44 3.1 Overview ................................... 44 3.2 Desired features in intelligent agents .................... 44 3.3 Structure of an intelligent agent ....................... 46 3.3.1 Reactiveagents ............................... 47 3.3.2 Cognitiveagents............................... 48 3.4 Basic architectures for intelligent agents .................. 49 3.5 Societies of agents: the multi-agent systems ................ 54 3.5.1 ClassificationsandtaxonomiesforMAS . ..... 55 3.5.2 Organisationalstructures . .... 58 3.6 Important issues in multi-agent systems .................. 59 3.6.1 Learning................................... 60 3.6.2 Communication ............................... 61 3.6.3 Co–operationandconflicts . .. 62 3.7 Agent–Based Simulation ........................... 63 3.8 Potential Applications of MAS in Traffic and Transportation ...... 65 3.8.1 TrafficManagementandControlSystems . .... 66 3.8.2 Traffic Microscopic Simulation and Driver Behaviour . .......... 68 3.8.3 OtherApplications ............................. 70 3.9 Summary ................................... 72 4 BDI:ACOGNITIVEAPPROACHFORMAS . 74 4.1 Overview ................................... 74 4.2 Beliefs, desires and intentions ........................ 74 4.3 TheBDIlogics ................................ 78 4.4 Traffic system: the application domain ................... 79 4.4.1 Descriptionoftrafficentities . ..... 80 4.4.2 Anexampleofalogictrafficsystem . ... 83 4.4.3 Planningatrip................................ 84 4.4.4 Strategiesfordecision-making . ..... 85 4.5 Practical ways to implement BDI models .................. 87 4.6 AgentSpeak(L): Specifying and Programming BDI Agents ........ 89 4.7 Summary ................................... 92 5 ABDIMODELOFCOMMUTERSCENARIOS. 94 5.1 Overview ................................... 94 5.2 Traffic domain from a multi–agent system perspective .......... 94 5.2.1 Thedriveragentarchitecture . .... 96 5.3 The BDI Driver Modelled in AgentSpeak(L) ................ 97 5.3.1 Basicstrategiesfordecision–making . ....... 98 5.3.2 Thefirstscenario .............................. 104 5.3.3 Communicationandexogenousinformation . ...... 113 5.3.4 Thesecondscenario............................. 114 5.3.5 Thethirdscenario.............................. 116 5.4 Summary ...................................119 6 MADAM+DRACULA: A FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS VARIABLE DEMAND................................... 120 6.1 Overview ...................................120 6.2 The DRACULA model ............................120 6.2.1 The within-day decision-making and day-to-day dynamics ........ 121 6.2.2 ThestructureofDRACULA . 121 6.2.3 Thelearninganddecision-makingprocesses