Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects PRUDENCE EVK2-CT2001-00132 http://prudence.dmi.dk Co-ordinator: Dr Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen Final Report 1 November 2001 – 31 October 2004 (Section 1) 8 February 2005 2 Table of Contents Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... 3 Participants information: ........................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Objectives of the reporting period................................................................................. 7 1.2 Scientific/technical progress made in different work packages according to the planned time schedule ................................................................................................... 7 Objective 1: To bring the project to its completion....................................................... 7 Objective 2: Revising the PRUDENCE data centre to its final form............................ 7 Objective 3: Detailed planning of the PRUDENCE special issue of Climatic Change (PSICC) ............................................................................................................ 8 1.3 Milestones and deliverables obtained............................................................................ 8 1.4 Deviations from the work plan and/or time schedule and their impact on the project............................................................................................................................ 8 1.5 Co-ordination of information between partners and communication activities.......... 11 Publications: ................................................................................................................ 13 Presentations:............................................................................................................... 23 Reports on media appearances:................................................................................... 39 1.6 Difficulties encountered at management and co-ordination level, and proposed/applied solutions .......................................................................................... 43 1.7 Contend of planned Special Issue of Climatic Change ............................................... 43 1.8 Aspects from the final workshop................................................................................. 54 Martina Jung .................................................................................................................................................54 Prof. Dr. Manfred A. Lange.........................................................................................................................55 Trond Iversen................................................................................................................................................57 2. Executive publishable summary.......................................................................................... 59 3. Status of activities by Work Package for the last year ........................................................ 61 3.1 Status of activities in WP1: European climate scenarios .................................................. 61 3.1.1 Objectives........................................................................................................... 61 3.1.2. Methodology and scientific achievements ........................................................ 61 3.1.3. Socio-economic relevance and policy implication............................................ 62 3.1.4. Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................ 62 3.1.5. Plans and objectives for the next period............................................................ 62 3.2 Status of activities in WP2: Uncertainty Assessment of European Regional Climate Model Responses to a Common Forcing .................................................................... 62 3.2.1. Objectives.......................................................................................................... 62 3.2.2. Methodology and scientific achievements ........................................................ 62 3.2.3. Socio-economic relevance and policy implication............................................ 64 3.2.4. Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................ 64 3.2.5. Plan and objectives for the next period ............................................................. 64 3.3 Status of activities in WP3: Impacts on Hydrology .......................................................... 64 3 3.3.1. Objectives.......................................................................................................... 64 3.3.2. Methodology and scientific achievements ........................................................ 64 3.3.3. Socio-economic relevance and policy implication............................................ 65 3.3.4. Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................ 65 3.3.5. Plan and objectives for the next period ............................................................. 65 3.4 Status of activities in WP4: Impacts on agriculture, forestry and ecosystems .................. 66 3.4.1 Objectives........................................................................................................... 66 3.4.2 Methodology and scientific achievements ......................................................... 66 3.5 Status of activities in WP5: Risk assessment of European weather and climate extremes....................................................................................................................... 68 3.5.1. Objectives.......................................................................................................... 68 3.5.2. Methodology and scientific achievements ........................................................ 68 3.5.3. Socio-economic relevance and policy implication............................................ 69 3.5.4. Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................ 69 3.5.5. Plan and objectives for the next period ............................................................. 69 3.6 Status of activities in WP6: Climate policies.................................................................... 69 3.6.1 Objectives........................................................................................................... 69 3.6.2 Methodology and scientific achievements ......................................................... 69 3.6.3 Socio-economic relevance and policy implication............................................. 70 3.6.4 Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................. 70 3.6.5 Plans and Objectives for the next period............................................................ 71 3.7 Status of activities in WP7: Management etc.................................................................... 71 3.7.1 Objectives........................................................................................................... 71 3.7.2 Methodology and scientific achievements ......................................................... 71 3.7.3 Socio-economic relevance and policy implication............................................. 72 3.7.4 Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................. 72 3.7.5 Plans and Objectives for the next period............................................................ 72 4: Technological Implementation plan (cumulative) .............................................................. 73 5. Executive publishable summary, related to the overall project duration ............................ 74 6. Detailed report, related to overall project duration ............................................................. 77 6.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 77 6.2 Scientific/technological and socio-economic objectives....................................... 77 6.3 Applied Methodology, Scientific Achievements and Main Deliverables............. 79 6.3.1 Workpackage 1: European regional climate simulations for 2071-2100 and their analyses.........80 6.3.2 Work package 2: Uncertainty Assessment of European Regional Responses................................84 6.3.3 Work package 3: Impacts of future climate scenarios on hydrology...............................................88 6.3.4 Work package 4: Impacts on agriculture, forestry and ecosystems.................................................90 6.3.5 Work package 5: Risk assessment of European weather and climate extremes in future regional forecast scenarios...................................................................................................................92 6.3.6 Work package 6: Assessment of the role of PRUDENCE on European climate policies..............95 6.3.7 Work package 7: Management etc.....................................................................................................96 6.4 Conclusions, Including Socio-Economic Relevance, Strategic Aspects and Policy Implications .....................................................................................................