RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS Awarding GCSE, AS, A level, advanced extension awards and extended project qualifications in summer 2020: interim report 1 Awarding GCSE, AS, A level, advanced extension awards and extended project qualifications in summer 2020: interim report Contents 1 Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 5 2 Background ........................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Context ............................................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Scope ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Centre assessment grades and rank orders ................................................................. 11 3 The case for standardisation............................................................................................. 13 3.1 Forms of accuracy in teacher estimates ....................................................................... 13 3.2 Equalities considerations ............................................................................................... 16 3.3 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 17 4 Principles of standardisation ............................................................................................ 18 4.1 Aims of standardisation ................................................................................................. 18 4.2 Balance of evidence ...................................................................................................... 20 4.3 The role of trajectory ...................................................................................................... 21 4.4 Correcting for potential bias in centre assessment grades ........................................... 22 5 The maintenance of standards.......................................................................................... 24 5.1 The importance of maintaining standards ..................................................................... 24 5.2 The role of statistical predictions ................................................................................... 24 5.3 Arrangements for summer 2020 .................................................................................... 28 6 Potential approaches to standardisation ......................................................................... 34 6.1 High-level categorisation of approaches ....................................................................... 34 6.2 Description of the potential models ............................................................................... 36 7 Model testing and results .................................................................................................. 48 7.1 Approach to testing ........................................................................................................ 48 7.2 Number of years of historical data ................................................................................. 49 7.3 Test results .................................................................................................................... 52 7.4 Practical considerations and selection of the approach................................................ 60 7.5 Centre-level equalities analysis ..................................................................................... 61 7.6 DCP Accuracy measures .............................................................................................. 76 7.7 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 81 8 The direct centre-level performance approach ............................................................... 83 8.1 Inter-exam board arrangements .................................................................................... 83 8.2 The core DCP approach ................................................................................................ 85 2 Awarding GCSE, AS, A level, advanced extension awards and extended project qualifications in summer 2020: interim report 8.3 Private candidates ......................................................................................................... 97 8.4 Centres with a small entry in a subject ........................................................................ 101 8.5 Standardisation of tiered subjects ............................................................................... 112 8.6 Standardisation of centres with a very large entry ...................................................... 121 8.7 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 124 9 Summer 2020 results ........................................................................................................ 125 9.1 Context for summer 2020 results ................................................................................ 125 9.2 Overall outcomes in summer 2020 .............................................................................. 129 9.3 CAGs compared to final grades .................................................................................. 134 9.4 Regional outcomes ...................................................................................................... 135 9.5 Outcomes by centre type ............................................................................................. 135 9.6 Grade combinations ..................................................................................................... 136 9.7 Grades in maths and further maths ............................................................................. 139 9.8 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 140 10 Student-level equalities analysis .................................................................................. 141 10.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 141 10.2 Student background variables ................................................................................... 142 10.3 Univariate analysis ..................................................................................................... 143 10.4 Multivariate analysis: across subjects ....................................................................... 167 10.5 Multivariate analysis: focus on specific subjects ....................................................... 175 10.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 179 11 Closing remarks .............................................................................................................. 180 Annex A: In-scope subject list ........................................................................................... 181 GCSE (Full course) ............................................................................................................ 181 GCSE (Short course) ......................................................................................................... 181 AS ....................................................................................................................................... 182 A-level ................................................................................................................................ 182 Other .................................................................................................................................. 183 Annex B: Post-results changes ......................................................................................... 184 Post-results changes – A level .......................................................................................... 184 Post-results changes – AS ................................................................................................ 185 Post-results changes – GCSE ........................................................................................... 187 Annex C: Partial Absentees ................................................................................................ 189 Partial Absentees – A level ................................................................................................ 189 Partial Absentees – AS ...................................................................................................... 190 3 Awarding GCSE, AS, A level, advanced extension awards and extended project qualifications in summer 2020: interim report Partial Absentees – GCSE ................................................................................................ 192 Annex D: Prior-attainment match rates............................................................................. 195 Annex E: Predictive accuracy data tables ........................................................................ 202 Annex F: Accuracy of predictions ..................................................................................... 207 Annex G: Year-on-year variability .....................................................................................