RETHINKING UNCERTAINTY: SPINOZA AND HUME ON SHAPING UNCERTAIN SECULAR FUTURES Alfonso Ruben Vergaray Dissertation submitted to the faculty of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In SOCIAL, POLITICAL, ETHICAL AND CULTURAL THOUGHT Joseph C. Pitt, Chair Benjamin E. Sax Gordon Schochet Patrick S. Roberts Timothy W. Luke September 25, 2014 Blacksburg, VA Keywords: Uncertainty, Spinoza, Hume © Copyright by Alfonso Ruben Vergaray, 2014. All rights reserved. Rethinking Uncertainty: Spinoza and Hume on Shaping Uncertain Secular Futures Alfonso Ruben Vergaray ABSTRACT This dissertation extends contemporary views about uncertainty. It does so through a reading of the role of uncertainty in the political thought of two modern philosophers, Baruch Spinoza and David Hume. Despite uncertainty’s notable and multi-disciplinary appeal in the academic literature, the frame in which most scholars think about social and political uncertainty is one- sided. On the whole, contemporary scholars consider uncertainty as a problem in need of a remedy. In the social sciences uncertainty is transformed into risk in order to empirically calculate risk probabilities. The hope is that risks (uncertainties) can be controlled, reduced, and in all, mitigated. In this dissertation, I argue for a conceptual rethinking of uncertainty that expands its scope and reach to include a socially and politically beneficent understanding, a constructive form of uncertainty. In particular, I explore the ways social groups experience conditions of uncertainty in different contexts through an examination of what I term future- oriented and epistemic uncertainty in Hume and Spinoza’s political thought. Spinoza’s arguments for liberal democracy, and Hume’s arguments favoring commercial society, are highlighted as instances of constructive uncertainty. The dissertation concludes by applying a general understanding of constructive uncertainty to the ideology of the American Dream in order to illustrate suggestively how a constructive conception of uncertainty might prove useful when critically engaging contemporary matters. DEDICATION To My Parents Pedro Vergaray and Flor Maria Vergaray iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Gratitude for any achievement necessarily stretches far beyond the self. I am therefore likely to forget some of the places and people that deserve mention. My advisor Joe Pitt provided gentle guidance and encouragement as my ideas initially took shape, and then as they evolved and morphed into the current version. I feel fortunate to have Joe as my primary advisor; he is an academic philosopher with both a sharp mind and a kind heart. The rest of my committee have consistently taken a keen interest in my work and contributed to this project in different ways. The committee included, at distinct moments, Ben Sax, Tim Luke, Bettina Koch, and Patrick Roberts. Gordon Schochet, my outside reader, has been an intellectual anchor since my early days at Rutgers University. At Rutgers, I also had the fortune to have the late Wilson Carey McWilliams as a mentor. Without his support it is difficult to imagine that I would have pursued graduate studies. I miss him. During my time at the University of Toronto, Clifford Orwin and Frank Cunningham left their marks. Attending Ananda Abeysekara’s undergraduate course on Buddhism was a highlight of my time at Virginia Tech. I presented portions of the Spinoza section of the dissertation at the University of St. Andrews and the University of Amsterdam. Eric Schliesser’s encouraging words about my claims regarding uncertainty in Spinoza lifted my spirits at a time when I needed rejuvenation. My friends at ASPECT, Juan Carlos Sierra, Nina Salmon, Lyusyena Kirakosyan, Jordan Hill, Marc Thomas, Seth Bartee, Shien Hauh Leu, and Howard have been present at the ups and downs that characterize graduate school. I thank them for their warm presence. I have shared a great deal with Seth Jaffe, Charlie Fleisher, John Charles, and Randy Tillmutt about things iv related and unrelated to this dissertation. Charlie deserves special mention as our friendship extends to my first days as an undergraduate. He has always found time to talk about things personal and political. One institution outside of Virginia Tech was crucial to the completion of this project. The Frederick Douglass Institute and the History & Political Science Department at California University of Pennsylvania provided me with financial and moral support during the final year of this project. I would especially like to thank Laura, Mel, Harrison, Ayanna, and Dean Yamba for their support and guidance. I owe my greatest debts to my parents, Pedro and Flor Maria Vergaray. As I began this project, my mother was diagnosed with cancer. The tenderness, care, and patience my father has displayed in these difficult times has been a source of inspiration. More generally, I cannot say enough about the overflowing love my parents have consistently provided. It is thanks to the solid relational foundation they have laid that I am able flourish. My sister Juliana was probably the earliest interlocutor I engaged regarding knowledge and reality. I admire her tenacity in speech and action. I would also like to thank Rabbit, Dark and White Kwai; without them life would be a little less colorful. To my dearest Aom, her loving presence brings sweet coherence to my everyday. Finally, to my child who is due to arrive in late March. I hope you remember that whatever you pursue in life that you pursue it lovingly. Eros is the engine of all things high. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................ ii DEDICATION...................................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................... vi 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Uncertainty & Risk ................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Constructive Uncertainty ........................................................................................ 15 1.3 Uncertainty in Modernity........................................................................................ 17 1.4 Uncertainty & Modern Political Philosophy........................................................... 21 2. BARUCH SPINOZA.................................................................................................... 25 2.1 Introduction to Uncertainty in Spinoza’s Theological-Political Treatise ............... 30 2.2 The Multitude.......................................................................................................... 33 2.3 Uncertainty, Religion, and Superstition.................................................................. 35 2.3.1 The Problem of Religion.................................................................................. 38 2.3.2 Religion and Uncertainty ................................................................................. 41 2.4 Liberalism, Freedom, and Uncertainty ................................................................... 45 2.4.1 Restraint ........................................................................................................... 50 2.4.2. Devotion to Freedom ...................................................................................... 54 2.5 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 61 3. DAVID HUME............................................................................................................. 65 3.1 Uncertainty in Book Three of the Treatise ............................................................. 69 3.2 Uncertainty in the Natural History of Religion....................................................... 75 3.3 Epistemic Uncertainty in Hume: Philosophy & Politics......................................... 90 3.4 Uncertainty in the Enquiry: Philosophy & Politics cont....................................... 108 3.5 Hume: The Radical Liberal Conservative............................................................. 138 3.6 Hume & the Uncertain Commercial Passions ...................................................... 151 4. CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 174 4.1 The American Dream as a Constructive form of Uncertainty .............................. 180 vi 4.2 Beyond the American Dream and Towards the Post-Colonial............................. 187 4.3 Concluding Remarks............................................................................................. 191 BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................................................................................... 193 vii 1. INTRODUCTION This study reexamines one of the most examined concepts in a broad range of disciplines dealing with social and political things: uncertainty. Uncertainty, as a theoretical point of departure, has captured the imagination of scholars in economics, environmental studies, law, political science, philosophy, psychology,