UNHCR Emergency & Security Service WRITENET Paper No. /18 COTE D’IVOIRE: A SITUATION ANALYSIS A Writenet Report by Thalia Griffiths July 2003 WriteNet is a Network of Researchers and Writers on Human Rights, Forced Migration, Ethnic and Political Conflict. WriteNet is the Resource Base of Practical Management (UK) E-mail: [email protected] Caveat: Writenet papers are prepared mainly on the basis of publicly available information, analysis and comment. The papers are not, and do not purport to be, either exhaustive with regard to conditions in the country surveyed, or conclusive as to the merits of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Writenet or Practical Management. Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................. i 1 Introduction........................................................................................1 1.1 Overview of the Conflict..............................................................................1 1.2 Assessment of the Current Security Situation...........................................2 2 The Marcoussis Agreement...............................................................2 3 Political Situation ...............................................................................4 3.1 Political Strength of Gbagbo and His Party..............................................4 3.2 Balance of Forces in Parliament and in Government...............................4 3.3 Current Strength of the Rebel Groups ......................................................5 3.4 Effectiveness of the GNU.............................................................................5 3.5 Xenophobia Trends......................................................................................6 4 International Reaction.......................................................................6 4.1 France and the International Community.................................................6 4.2 Role of Neighbouring States........................................................................7 5 Rebel Actions......................................................................................9 5.1 Reaction to Peace Agreement .....................................................................9 5.2 Rebel Controlled Areas ...............................................................................9 6 Refugee and IDP Situation..............................................................10 7 Overall Economic and Social Situation .........................................11 7.1 Foreign Aid.................................................................................................11 7.2 Cocoa Production for 2002/2003 and Prospects for 2003/2004. ............11 7.3 Economic Implications for the West African Region .............................12 7.4 Status of Foreign Investment ....................................................................12 8 NGO/IGO Role.................................................................................13 9 Review of Possible Scenarios...........................................................14 9.1 Best Case.....................................................................................................14 9.2 Worst Case..................................................................................................14 9.3 Most Likely Scenario .................................................................................15 10 Conclusions....................................................................................15 11 Bibliography..................................................................................17 Executive Summary The political and humanitarian situation in Côte d’Ivoire has improved markedly since the signing of a new ceasefire on 3 May. Insecurity persists in the far west, and is heightened by the upsurge of fighting across the border in Liberia, but the deployment of French and West African peacekeepers in the area since 23 May has improved the situation. The international troops have established a “zone of confidence”, cleared of both government and rebel fighters, where people are returning to their homes. Humanitarian issues: The main humanitarian issues relate to assistance to populations returning home, particularly in areas where villages have been razed and water supplies contaminated during the fighting, and to ensuring adequate food supplies, especially in communities hosting large numbers of internally displaced persons. Côte d’Ivoire is also bracing itself for a new wave of Liberian refugees as the situation across the border deteriorates. Peace and disarmament: The government army and the rebels have agreed on sites for cantonment of troops as a prelude to disarmament, and that process seems to be moving ahead gradually, despite a standoff at government level over the appointment of a permanent defence minister. Politics: President Laurent Gbagbo and the hardliners surrounding him are critical of the Government of National Unity, hampering its effective operation. The Economic Community of West African States, and the committee set up to oversee implementation of January’s Marcoussis peace accord, are playing a vital role in keeping the process on track. Outlook: Lasting peace depends on a resolution of the conflict in Liberia. This will require further strong involvement of the international community to bring into being a credible civilian administration in Monrovia to replace the discredited President Charles Taylor, who has been indicted for war crimes by the Special Court in Sierra Leone. Otherwise Liberia’s various factions will go back to tearing the country, and the region, apart. Côte d’Ivoire now seems to have a real chance of peace, provided the activities of all the region’s assorted rebel movements are curbed. i 1 Introduction 1.1 Overview of the Conflict Nine months into the conflict in Côte d’Ivoire, there are signs that peace may slowly take hold, but the process will be far from straightforward. A ceasefire has halted fighting in most of the country, but the involvement of numerous armed groups on both sides of the conflict in the western part of the country has made the situation there rather less tractable. A Government of National Unity (GNU) is in place, but is largely ineffective because of opposition from hardliners around President Laurent Gbagbo. But there are signs of progress in the disarmament process, and the movement of goods and people across the front line that has cut the country in two is getting easier.1 President Gbagbo has been in post since October 2000, when he defeated the military ruler, General Robert Guei, in an electoral contest from which other significant opponents were excluded. Guei tried to declare himself the winner, but Gbagbo’s supporters marched on the presidential palace to demand that he be installed as head of state. However, those who hoped the long-time opposition leader would usher in an era of peace and democracy were disappointed. Opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, a former prime minister, was barred from running in the December 2000 parliamentary elections, and his Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR) boycotted the vote.2 As well as the political tensions in Abidjan, ethnic tensions persisted in western Côte d’Ivoire over land ownership, and there was continued unrest within the military, until on 19 September 2002, rebel soldiers carried out more than a dozen coordinated attacks in Abidjan, the central city of Bouaké, and the main northern town of Korhogo. General Guei and interior minister Emile Boga Doudou were killed. Few believe government claims that Guei died in an exchange of fire as he was heading to the television station to announce a coup d’état. The rebels, mostly low-ranking soldiers who were recruited into the army by Guei and were resisting Gbagbo’s plans to demobilize them, called themselves the Mouvement Patriotique de la Côte d’Ivoire (MPCI), and in mid-October named as their secretary-general Guillaume Soro, a former head of the Ivorian student union, the Fédération Estudiantine et Scolaire de la Côte d’Ivoire (FESCI). The two sides agreed a ceasefire brokered by West African mediators in mid-October and French troops deployed in a buffer zone between the rebel-held North and the government-held South.3 However, two smaller rebel groups operating in the western part of the country, Mouvement pour le Justice et la Paix (MJP) and Mouvement Patriotique Ivoirien du Grand-Ouest (MPIGO), only agreed on a truce in early January and have had difficulty maintaining it since then. During January talks convened by the French government were held in Marcoussis near Paris, between a wide range of Ivorian political parties and rebel movements. The resulting 1 Unless otherwise indicated the main narrative in this paper is based on international, regional and local media sources 2 See Human Rights Watch, The New Racism: The Politics of Ethnicity in Côte d’Ivoire, New York, 28 August 2001 3 This period is analyzed in more detail in Griffiths, T., Côte d’Ivoire: Continued Crisis, Writenet for UNHCR, October 2002 peace agreement, the Marcoussis accord, has only been partially implemented due to obstruction from all sides. However, by the beginning of July most of the initial problems experienced in relation to the Marcoussis political arrangements, the Government of National Unity, have been ironed out, though