Towards a Climate Resilient Agriculture and livelihoods in Southern Tunisia | Tunisia 21 August 2019 Towards a Climate Resilient Agriculture and livelihoods in Project/Programme Title: Southern Tunisia Country(ies): Tunisia National Designated Ministry of Local Affairs and Environment (MALE) Authority(ies) (NDA): Accredited Entity(ies) (AE): _____________________________ Date of first submission/ [2019-08-05] [V.0] version number: Date of current submission/ [2019-08-05] [V.0] version number Please submit the completed form to [email protected], using the following name convention in the subject line and file name: “CN-[Accredited Entity or Country]-YYYYMMDD” PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 Notes The maximum number of pages should not exceed 12 pages, excluding annexes. Proposals exceeding the prescribed length will not be assessed within the indicative service standard time of 30 days. As per the Information Disclosure Policy, the concept note, and additional documents provided to the Secretariat can be disclosed unless marked by the Accredited Entity(ies) (or NDAs) as confidential. The relevant National Designated Authority(ies) will be informed by the Secretariat of the concept note upon receipt. NDA can also submit the concept note directly with or without an identified accredited entity at this stage. In this case, they can leave blank the section related to the accredited entity. The Secretariat will inform the accredited entity(ies) nominated by the NDA, if any. Accredited Entities and/or NDAs are encouraged to submit a Concept Note before making a request for project preparation support from the Project Preparation Facility (PPF). Further information on GCF concept note preparation can be found on GCF website Funding Projects Fine Print. PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 A. Project/Programme Summary (max. 1 page) ☒ Project A.2. Public or ☒ Public sector A.1. Project or programme ☐ Programme private sector ☐ Private sector Yes ☒ No ☐ A.3. Is the CN submitted in ☐ Confidential If yes, specify the RFP: Annex A.4. Confidentiality1 response to an RFP? ☒ Not confidential 8______________ Mitigation: Reduced emissions from: ☐ Energy access and power generation ☐ Low emission transport ☐ Buildings, cities and industries and appliances A.5. Indicate the result ☒ Forestry and land use areas for the Adaptation: Increased resilience of: project/programme ☒ Most vulnerable people and communities ☒ Health and well-being, and food and water security ☐ Infrastructure and built environment ☒ Ecosystem and ecosystem services A.7. Estimated A.6. Estimated mitigation adaptation impact 82 000 (0.7% of impact (tCO2eq over 449 kt CO2 eq per year (number of direct population) lifespan) beneficiaries and % of population) A.8. Indicative total project Amount: USD 65 M A.9. Indicative GCF Amount: USD 34.0 M cost (GCF + co-finance) funding requested A.10. Mark the type of financial instrument ☒ Grant ☐ Reimbursable grant ☐ Guarantees ☐ Equity requested for the GCF ☐ Subordinated loan ☐ Senior Loan ☐ Other: specify___________________ funding a) disbursement period: 6 years A.12. Estimated A.11. Estimated duration project/ Programme 30 years min of project/ programme: b) repayment period, if applicable: lifespan A.13. Is funding from the Yes ☒ No ☐ ☐ A or I-1 Project Preparation Other support received ☐ If so, by A.14. ESS category3 ☒ B or I-2 Facility requested?2 who: ☐ C or I-3 A.15. Is the CN aligned A.16. Has the CN been with your accreditation Yes ☒ No ☐ Yes ☒ No ☐ shared with the NDA? standard? Yes ☐ No ☐ A.18. Is the CN A.17. AMA signed (if If no, specify the status of AMA included in the Entity Yes ☒ No ☐ submitted by AE) negotiations and expected date of Work Programme? signing: Southern Tunisia is highly vulnerable to climate changes (CC) whose impacts are exacerbated by socio-economic difficulties and overexploitation of natural resources. Local A.19. Project/Programme Agriculture, based on oasis, olive production and rangelands, is essential for populations rationale, objectives and and contributes to tackle desertification, poverty and rural migration. However, approach of Agricultural production is already affected by CC impacts such as unpredictable floods and programme/project (max droughts, erratic rainfall and rising temperatures which leads to deterioration of 100 words) ecosystem’s resources and services. Adaptation to these new CC challenges is essential to secure the livelihoods for the most vulnerable southern farmers community. The project therefore aims at building the resilience of smallholder farmers and ecosystems to current 1 Concept notes (or sections of) not marked as confidential may be published in accordance with the Information Disclosure Policy (Decision B.12/35) and the Review of the Initial Proposal Approval Process (Decision B.17/18). 2 See here for access to project preparation support request template and guidelines 3 Refer to the Fund’s environmental and social safeguards (Decision B.07/02) PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 and future CC through an integrated set of climate-sensitive water, land and livelihood approaches and practices and to build government’s capacity to better plan and support farming communities against future climate changes through Livelihoods and economic diversification and restoring natural resources and ecosystem’s services. B. Project/Programme Information (max. 8 pages) B.1. Context and baseline (max. 2 pages) Climate Change Hazards, Impacts, and Vulnerabilities 1. Climate change has become a reality in Tunisia, which is struggling to cope with the problems of desertification, water scarcity and the degradation of natural resources. Despite its limited carbon footprint, the risks of climate change may be high. The fourth Arab country to have published its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, Tunisia has put climate change on the top of its political and economic agenda. It is also the first country in the region to include in its new Constitution recognition of climate change: “A sound and balanced environment while contributing to the safety of the climate by all available means.4”Tunisia’s climate is changing as the analysis of climate indicates an increase in mean temperatures of 2.1°C between 1978 and 2010 (INM (Meteorological National Institute), 2018). Observations also indicate a modest decrease in mean annual and seasonal precipitations since 1950 (INM,2018). However, intense rainfalls increased between 1951 and 2010 by 10 events per decade (INM,2018). Besides, the number of hot days increased by 7 days per decade with regional disparities. (INM,2018). Climate change is and will have far-reaching consequences, especially in relation to Tunisia ‘s water supply and its agricultural sector. Results from the economic analyses—based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling— show that climate change will lead to negative effects for the overall economy, the agricultural sector, and a total reduction in household incomes. Global (higher global food prices) and local effects (lower yields) together are projected to reduce economic output in Tunisia by US$2.0–2.7 billion over 30 years (World Bank). 2. Southern Tunisia is characterized by an arid to Saharan bio-climate, with annual rainfall below 400 mm (You and al., 2016) and the temperatures during summer exceed 32°C. In the past decades, South Tunisia has faced strong droughts and floods that went out of control (flash flood events in 2014, 2016 and 2017). The impacts of climatic events will become more important by 2050 if nothing is done to adapt the agricultural and rural sectors. Among the most impacted regions of Tunisia, the Southern governorates stand high. The local projections point out that the six southern governorates, Gabès, Gafsa, Kébili, Médenine, Tataouine and Tozeur, representing 1.6 million inhabitants, will be the most impacted by climate related changes. They will endure the highest increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, longest droughts and more intense rainfalls, and a high probability of having 2 or 3 consecutive dry years (GIZ, 2007). 3. Climatic projections for Southern Tunisia based on the 14 EURO-CORDEX models using a 12.5km resolution and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (IPCC), confirm important changes by 2050 and 2100. The mean temperatures could increase from 1 to 2.6°C by 2050, 2 to 5.2°C by 2100 (RCP4.5 and 8.5), especially during summer and autumn (INM,2018). The annual precipitations are projected to decrease between 1 and 15% by 2050 and up to 30% by 2100, with spatial disparities as inland (between Sfax and Gabès) and arid areas (Tataouine) will be more impacted (INM,2018). Seasonal projections indicate a decrease in precipitations up to 35% in summer and 20% in autumn by 2100 under RCP4.5 scenario, and a decrease up to 35% in winter under RCP8.5 scenario (INM). Besides, dry periods could increase from 15 to 20 days by 2050 and up to 30 days by 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario (INM,2018). 4. Under dryer climate, the agricultural areas of Tunisia are projected to decrease from a current average of 1.5 million hectares to about 1 million hectares in 2030, (NDC, 2015) and the GDP could decline by 5 to 10% (GIZ 2007). Those impacts cannot be avoided unless agriculture resilience is improved in order to preserve degraded natural resources and provide enough income to the small holder’s farmers. 5. Climate change impacts in Southern Tunisia are increasing the vulnerability of local natural resources and livelihoods that are already under considerable pressure due to human activities. Water supply in the south is based on deep groundwater resources. The water supply scheme is no longer adapted to the south current situation due to the raise in the water demand and the decrease in the water availability and stock caused by CC impacts (the increase in temperature, evapotranspiration and the irregular rainfall). Soil fertility and functions are already affected by extreme rainfall inducing erosion, and extreme temperatures leading to a reduction of moisture.