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This is no small accomplishment,plain football jersey, as luck plays a large part of many game outcomes. Win Chance GAME Win Chance 0.20 Detroit at Chicago 0.80 0.61 Cincinnati at Cleveland 0.39 0.13 Seattle at Indianapolis 0.87 0.68 NY Giants at Kansas City 0.32 0.59 Baltimore at New England 0.41 0.20 Tampa Bay at Washington 0.80 0.49 Tennessee at Jacksonville 0.51 0.32 Oakland at Houston 0.68 0.27 NY Jets at New Orleans 0.73 0.50 Buffalo at Miami 0.50 0.23 St. Louis at San Francisco 0.77 0.28 Dallas at Denver 0.72 0.47 San Diego at Pittsburgh 0.53 0.42 Green Bay at Minnesota 0.58 Adjustments are made for past opponent strength,nfl wholesale jersey, so a team that has accumulated great stats against weak teams is penalized. Home field advantage is accounted for. Additionally, early in the season,discount nfl jerseys,wholesale NFL hats, very high or very low stats are very unlikely to be sustained all year, so each team?¡¥s stats are regressed toward the league average. This adjustment is strongest in the early weeks and gradually fades out as the season goes on. If you?¡¥re interested,new nike nfl, this article features a detailed example of how the game predictions are computed based on last year?¡¥s Super Bowl. Now on to the Week 4 probabilities: Special teams are left out. Although special teams often matter in explaining past wins or losses,personalized nfl football jerseys, with few exceptions very little of it is consistently repeatable through a season. Unlike the core efficiency stats,boston university hockey jersey,authentic nfl jerseys, they are not predictive of future wins. Some other stats show the same tendency to a lesser extent,authentic nfl jersey, and they are adjusted accordingly. For the past three seasons,blank football jersey, I?¡¥ve published weekly game probabilities at my site, but this year they?¡¥ll be featured here at the Fifth Down. In this post,west virginia football jersey,new nike nfl uniforms, I?¡¥ll explain how the predictions work. So much can change on a week-to-week basis in the NFL, let alone over a span of three-plus years, but I am picking the New England Patriots as the dominant team in the AFC East from 2014 to 2016. There are several reasons why. First off, well,chinese nfl jerseys, they are the Patriots. They are an elite organization from ownership on down. Of course,china nhl jersey, I don’t know this for certain,new nfl jerseys 2012,new nike nfl football jerseys, but if Bill Belichick is still in charge of this team, I can’t see New England falling off the map. In the understatement of the century -- Belichick knows what he is doing. Second is quarterback. I will certainly concede that Tom Brady of that era will not be the same as he is today. In fact,scotland football jersey,tom brady football jersey, he might not even be playing football anymore. But I just don’t see a potentially dominant quarterback currently on the rosters of the other franchises in the AFC East. And the selection of Ryan Mallett could pay off big for New England during this future era we are discussing if he is brought along properly. Lastly, outside of possibly the quarterback position, the Patriots are set up for the long haul better than any team in the division -- or maybe better than any team in the entire league. They have an extremely impressive very young core of talent at most positions. And no team stores away draft picks for a rainy day like New England. Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com. Follow Matt Williamson on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL To convert the team stats into game predictions,black football jersey, the model uses a technique called logit regression,nike jerseys,nike jerseys for nfl, which is best used for dichotomous outcomes such as win or lose. The final product is a probability on a scale from zero to one that one opponent will beat another. When I originally constructed this model,cool nfl jerseys, the goal wasn?¡¥t to predict game outcomes but to identify how important the various phases of the game were compared with the others. To do that,new nfl nike jerseys, I had to choose stats that were independent of the others, or at least as independent as possible. Sometimes its predictions make you scratch your head, especially early in the season when most fans still carry notions of how good certain teams should be. It has its flaws,michigan football jersey,hockey jersey template, but it is brutally unbiased and hype-free. Of course, now that they are featured on nytimes.com,cheap youth nfl jerseys, it?¡¥s due for an off year,nfl team jerseys,2012 new nfl jerseys! 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