Going with the Floe? An analysis of luck versus skill in the epic polar expeditions of Fridtjof Nansen and Sir Ernest Shackleton Stephanie Pfirman, Bruno Tremblay and Charles Fowler ne hundred years ago, the he- British Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedi- ice pack and, in Shackleton’s case, the roic age of polar exploration tion of 1914–1917 was to transit to Ant- wind and ocean currents of the open Owas well underway. Expedi- arctica in the Endurance and then land a sea. These are natural forces, outside tions set off one after another to explore, party on the continent who would cross the control of the expedition leaders. map and make national claims. Fridtjof over the ice cap from the Atlantic to the Were Nansen and Shackleton lucky that Nansen and Sir Ernest Shackleton were Pacific by way of the South Pole. But the the ice and ocean delivered them and two of the most famous polar explorers two journeys wound up having much their crews to locations from which they in their time, and their stories still reso- in common. Both ships were frozen into could return? Or were their fates prede- nate today. At first glance the two men the sea ice and meandered at the whim termined by the normal range of natu- and their most famous expeditions were of the pack, both expeditions spanned ral conditions? We cannot reconstruct literally poles apart: Nansen, from the three years, both leaders left their crews the exact wind and ocean patterns that not-yet-independent country of Norway, at some point, and all crew members existed 100 years ago to answer these traveled during 1893–1896 to the Arctic, who sailed with them survived—a high- questions, but using newly available da- attempting a long-planned sea approach ly unusual outcome in that era. tabases, we can look at the patterns of to the North Pole aboard his specially The crucial point that we will explore sea ice drift, winds and ocean currents designed ship, the Fram. The goal of here is the dependence of both expedi- during recent decades to see what is Shackleton’s hastily cobbled together tions on their drift trajectory in the sea normal and what is not. Nansen and the Fram “On this same drift-ice, and by this the capital of Greenland. Driftwood same route, it must be no less pos- from Siberia was often deposited along sible to transport an expedition.” the east and west coasts of Greenland. Nansen, Farthest North (1897). Furthermore, the mineral composition of sediments on East Greenland sea ice ansen’s scheme was audacious: were consistent with a Siberian source, he actually planned from the and the assemblage of diatoms sampled Nbeginning to freeze from drifting ice was his ship into the Arctic ice similar to that previ- pack north of Siberia and ously sampled near the then let the migrating ice Bering Strait. transport his party to the Clearly, a major North Pole. He got the stream of sea ice flowed idea after learning about Library/Alamy Picture Evans Mary consistently from Sibe- various materials that were ria across the Arctic to- carried by sea ice from Si- wards Greenland. Along beria to the coast of Green- its way, this route must land. The most compelling pass by the North Pole, Images Getty piece of evidence was an leading Nansen to state: Inuit (Eskimo) throwing stick ornamented with I believe that if we Chinese glass beads from pay attention to the Figure 1. Hand-colored lantern slide of the Bering Strait that was actually existent Fridtjof Nansen in his cabin on the Fram. At found along the west Greenland coast forces of nature, and seek to work left, a serialization of Nansen’s recounting near Gothaab, now known as Nuuk, with and not against them, we of his expedition. 484 American Scientist, Volume 97 Getty Images Getty Figure 2. The epic era of polar exploration around the turn of the last century featured two stangely similar episodes: In 1893 Fridtjof Nansen intentionally allowed his ship to become frozen into the drifting polar ice pack to ride the ice over the top of the Earth; two decades later the ship of Sir William Shackleton, decidedly not by intention, became frozen into the moving ice pack of the Weddell Sea of Antarctica. Their adventures featured years of drift, heroism, and ultimately survival. To what degrees were the heroic feats of Nansen and Shackleton, now leg- end, due to luck? Would normal variations in current, weather, and ice motion have assisted or doomed them? Satellite data of ice movements in recent years offers answers. Above, a hand-colored lantern slide of Nansen’s ship the Fram, perched high on arctic ice after its specially designed hull was squeezed out of the forming ice pack. shall thus find the safest and easi- it take to perform this journey? If A lucky find of the remnants of a est method of reaching the Pole. the drift took ten years, it would be tragedy gave Nansen the last piece of While safe and perhaps easy in hard to find a crew willing to hitch information he needed to propose us- relative terms, how long would such a slow ride to the North Pole. ing the ice drift as the foundation of his Stephanie Pfirman, Hirschorn Professor and chair of the Environmental Science Department at Barnard College, Columbia University, uses the IceTracker in her re- search on sea ice origin and fate, and also in her undergraduate First Year Seminar “Exploring the Poles.” Pfirman recieved her PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution joint program in Oceanography and Oceanographic Engineering. velese feum et ut nostrud tio consequat. Usto doluptat veleniam dolore vullaor in hent num velit, sequip exeratue ming eniam, sit ullaortion voleseq uipisci ncilissisl dunt volor senis nos non vent illandrer si ercilit at esto od dio odolessis am, consed magna alit lumsand ionsent verat, consent dignisl el estrud del del ero od ercillaoreet il dunt wis accum adiamet aliquat, www.americanscientist.org 2009 November–December 485 a number of articles which appear, from sundry indubitable marks to process from the sunken vessel. 8 +VMZ The distance from the New Si- & /BOTFOTBJMT berian Islands to the 80th degree of 4FQUFNCFS GSPN/PSXBZ latitude on the east coast of Green- 5IF'SBNJTGSP[FOJO land is 1360 miles, and the dis- CZTFBJDF tance from the last-named place to .BSDI Julianehaab is 1540 miles, making /BOTFOBOE together a distance of 2900 miles. +PIBOTFOEFQBSU This distance was traversed by GSPNUIF'SBN the floe in 1100 days, which gives & "QSJM a speed of 2.6 miles per day. The 5IFZSFBDI{/ time which the relics drifted after UIFIJHIFTUMBUJUVEF having reached the 80th degree of BDIJFWFEUPUIBUUJNF +VMZ latitude till they reached Juliane- /PSUI1PMF 5IFZXJOUFSPWFS 8 CFGPSFEFQBSUJOH haab, can be calculated with tol- GPS4QJU[CFSHFO erable precision, as the speed of the above-named current along / m the east coast of Greenland is well known. It may be assumed that it took at least 400 days to accom- m/ plish this distance; there remain, "VHVTU then, about 700 days as the longest 5IF'SBNFNFSHFT time the drifting articles can have GSPNUIFJDF / taken from the New Siberian Is- m land to the 80th degree of latitude. 8 Nansen proceeded to design and m/ build a ship that could withstand the pressures of the ice and outfit it for five Figure 3. Route of Nansen’s Fram: solid black lines indicate sailing; dotted black line indicates years, more than twice as long as he ex- Fram’s drift trajectory in with the sea ice. The yellow line is the sledge and kayak route of Nansen and Johansen. pected to be drifting within the pack. The main point in this vessel is North Polar expedition. He wrote: after she foundered to the north that it be built on such principles of these islands there was found as to enable it to withstand the The Jeanette drifted for two years in frozen into the drift-ice, in the pressure of the ice. The sides must the ice, from Wrangel Island to the neighborhood of Julianehaab, on slope sufficiently to prevent the New Siberian Islands. Three years the southwest coast of Greenland, ice, when it presses together, from getting firm hold of the hull, as was the case with the Jeanette and other vessels. Instead of nipping the ship, the ice must raise it up out of the water. With such a ship and a crew of ten, or at the most twelve, able- bodied and carefully picked by me, with a full equipment for five years, in every respect as good as modern appliances permit of, I am of opinion that the undertaking would be well-secured against risk …When the right time has arrived, then we shall plough our way in amongst the ice as far as we can. While many criticized this plan, call- ing it “sheer madness,” “extremely dan- gerous,” “based on fallacious ideas,” and leading to “barren results” as well The Mariners’ Museum, Newport News, VA News, Newport Museum, Mariners’ The as to “suffering and death among its Figure 4. Nansen (right) and Jackson meet on Franz Josef land. “Suddenly I thought I heard a members,”, Nansen persevered in fund- shout…I ran up on the hummock and hallooed with all the strength of my lungs.” raising and outfitting his expedition. On 486 American Scientist, Volume 97 July 21, 1893, Nansen left Norway and realized that he could not advance as bear meat. They emerged in the spring made his way along the coast of Siberia rapidly toward the Pole as he planned: of 1896 and continued south through towards the point where the Jeanette the ice itself was moving south and it the archipelago, making their way back had been crushed.