Somalia: A Political Economy Analysis Christian Webersik, Stig Jarle Hansen & Adam Egal Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Copyright: © Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 2018 ISSN: 1894-650X The report has been commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views, official policy or position of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The text may not be printed in part or in full without the permission of the authors. Visiting address: C.J. Hambros plass 2d Address: P.O. Box 8159 Dep. NO-0033 Oslo, Norway Internet: www.nupi.no E-mail: [email protected] Tel: [+ 47] 22 99 40 00 Somalia: A Political Economy Analysis Christian Webersik (Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder) Stig Jarle Hansen (Norwegian University of Life Sciences) Adam Egal (Norwegian University of Life Sciences) Report Commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs June 2018 Contents Map of Somalia .................................................................................................................... V About the report .................................................................................................................. VI List of acronyms ................................................................................................................... VII 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Choice of methods, and delimitations/ limitations ......................................... 1 1.3 Brief historical background ............................................................................... 2 1.4 Norway/Somalia relations ................................................................................. 5 2. Political situation ........................................................................................................ 7 3. Economic and humanitarian situation ....................................................................... 10 4. Conflict and stabilization ............................................................................................ 13 5. Formal domestic actors ............................................................................................... 16 5.1 Somali Federal Government .............................................................................. 16 5.2 Regional Federal States ..................................................................................... 17 6. Informal domestic actors ............................................................................................ 21 6.1 The role of clan authority ................................................................................... 21 6.2 Al-Shabaab .......................................................................................................... 22 6.3 Religious groups ................................................................................................. 23 6.4 Civil society organizations ................................................................................. 24 6.5 Private sector ...................................................................................................... 24 7. Formal external actors ................................................................................................ 27 7.1 Kenya and Ethiopia ............................................................................................. 27 7.2 African Union Mission in Somalia ..................................................................... 28 7.3 Multilateral organizations ................................................................................. 29 7.4 The USA ............................................................................................................... 29 7.5 The Gulf States, Turkey, and Egypt .................................................................... 29 8. Informal external actors .............................................................................................. 31 8.1 The role of the diaspora ..................................................................................... 31 9. Human rights situation ............................................................................................... 33 10. Synthesis and conclusions ......................................................................................... 35 References ............................................................................................................................ 38 Map of Somalia Caluula GULF O F A D E N Breeda DJIBOUTI Gees Asayita Bandar Murcaayo Djibouti Boosaaso Gwardafuy Saylac Raas (Bender Cassim) Butyaalo Dikhil Surud Bargaal Raas Maskan Qandala ceel Raas Ja Raas Binna Silil Khansiir Xiis Maydh Laasqoray Karin D aho a D t r Hurdiyo ro Raas AWDAL Bullaxaar Berbera Ceerigaabo (Erigavo) B ARA R I Xaafuun Xaafuun Baki S A NAA G Iskushuban Boorama Ka WOQOOYI rkaar Mountains D Burco Dire Dawa GALBEED e Togwajaale r (Burao) Garadag Qardho Bandarbeyla Dudo Nazret Hargeysa Harer Jijiga Oodweyne Xudun Kiridh Taxeex TOGDHEER S O O L E yl Garoowe Buuhoodle Laascaanood Degeh Bur NUNUGGAAAAL Raas Gori Rit Gabbac Eyl Berdaale Xamure ETHIOPIA Werder Beyra Seemade (Galcaio) Garacad Megalo K'ebri Dahar Gaalkacyo Imi MUDUG War Galoh Gode Shilabo Baxdo Mirsaale Hilalaya Mereer-Gur Dhuusamarreeb Hargele (Dusa Marreb) GALGUDUUD Hobyo Ferfer Ceel Huur Ceel Buur W Beledweyne Xarardheere e b BAKOOL i Derri Dolo Bay Xuddur HIRS AAN h I N DIAN O CEAN a (Oddur) b Buulobarde e Ceeldheere Luuq Tayeeglow e l l e Garbahaarrey Baydhabo KENYA (Baidoa) SHABELLE GEDO Mahadday DHEXE Buurhakaba Weym El Beru Hagia Wanlaweyn Cadale Diinsoor BAY Jawhar (Giohar) Baardheere Balcad W Afgooye e b i Muqdisho (Mogadishu) Qoryooley J Wajir u BANADIR SOMALIA b JUBA b SHABELLE a Marka (Merca) National capital DDHEXHEXE HOOSE Haaway Regional capital Baraawe Town, village Bu'aale Afmadow Airport Jilib International boundary Bilis Qooqaani Regional boundary Jamaame JUBA Undetermined boundary SOMALIA Main road HOOSE Kismaayo (Chisimayu) Track Isole Railroad Giuba 0 50 100 150 200 km Buur Gaabo Raas 0 50 100 mi Kaambooni The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map - do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. - Garsen Lamu Map No. 3690 Rev. 10 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support December 2011 Cartographic Section Somalia, Map No. 3690 Rev.10, December 2011, UNITED NATIONS V About the report In June 2016, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Comprehensive Terms of Reference (ToR) Affairs (MFA) commissioned NUPI to provide were developed to serve as a general template for political economy analyses of eleven countries all eleven country analyses. The country­specific (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Malawi, Mali, ToR and scope of these analyses were further Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Somalia, South determined in meetings between the MFA, the Sudan and Tanzania) deemed important to Nor­ Norwegian embassies, NUPI and the individual wegian development cooperation. The intention researchers responsible for the country studies. was to consolidate and enhance expertise on these NUPI has also provided administrative support countries, so as to improve the quality of the and quality assurance of the overall process. MFA’s future country­specific involvement and In some cases, NUPI has commissioned part­ strategy development. Such political economy ner institutions to write the political economy analyses focus on how political and economic analyses. power is constituted, exercised and contested. VI List of acronyms AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia ASWJ Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama CSOs Civil Society Organizations DFID UK Department for International Development EU European Union ICG International Contact Group ICU Union of Islamic Courts IDP Internally Displaced Person IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development MRM UN Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism NGOs Non­Governmental Organizations NISA Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency RVI Rift Valley Institute SDG Somali Donor Group SFF Somalia Special Financing Facility SFG Somali Federal Government SFG Somali Federal Government SNA Somali National Army TNG Transitional National Government UAE United Arab Emirates UN OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOSOM United Nations Operation in Somalia WHO World Health Organization VII 1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 Choice of methods, and The situation in Somalia has improved steadily delimitations/ limitations over the past 10 years, although there has been With its unique historical trajectory, highly deterioration in security over the last six months. complex political and economic system, and Warfare is less common today, and institu­ constantly changing actors, Somalia requires a tions are being rebuilt. World Bank data show special approach. In order to address the ToR of improvements in overall life expectancy and an this PEA, it was necessary to delimit the scope increase in GDP figures,