DOCUMENT RESUME ED 077 182 EM 011 010 AUTHOr, Hoggatt, Austin Curwood, Ed. TITLE 1973 Winter Simulation Conference. Sponsored by ACM/AIIE/SHARE/SCi/TIMS. PUB DATE Jan 73 NOTE 916p.; Prt-ceedings of the Annual Winter Simulation Conference (6th, San Francisco, California, January 17-19, 1973) EDRS PRICE MF-$0.65 BC- $32..90 DESCRIPTORS Computer Programs; *Computers; *Conference Reports; Games; Game Theory; Management; Organization; Policy Fofffiation; Simulated Environment; *Simulaton ABSTRACT A record of the current state of the art of simulation and the major part it now plays in policy formation in large organizations is provided by these conference proceedings. The 40 papers presented reveal an emphasis on the applications of simulation. In addition, the abstracts of 28 papers submitted to a more informal "paper fair" are also included. (RH) .t FILMED FROM BEST AVAILABLECOPY U S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION & WELFARE (Ni NATIONAL INSTITUT(' OF EDUCATION CO THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEENREPRO r--4 OUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVEDFFM.Vt THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATIONORIGIN AT MG IT POINTS OF VIEW OPOP.NIONS N REPRE STATED DO NOT NECESSARIL.Y N. SENT OFFICIAL NATIONALINSTITUTE OF C) EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY 1973 WINTER SIMULATION CONFERENCE Edited By: Austin Curwood Hoggatt University of California. January 17-19, 1973 St Francis Hotel San Francisco, California Sponsored by ACWAIIE/lEEE/SHARE/SCUTIMS CD ,.... CONFERENCE OFFICERS GENERAL CHAIRMAN ARRANGEMENTS CHAIRMAN Joseph Sussman Lawrence W. Heinle Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory 77 Massachusetts Avenue 170 San Pablo Avenue Room 1- 131 San Francisco, CA 94127 Cambridge, MA 02139 415 661.8555 617 253-5320 TREASURER PROGRAM CHAIRMAN David E. Watts Austin Hoggatt Bank of America University of California Management Sciences Dept. No. 3210 Center for Research in Management Science P.O. Box 37000 26 Barrows Hall San Francisco, CA 94137 Berkeley, CA 94720 415 622.5223 415 642-4738 REGISTRATION CHAIRMAN DEPUTY PROGRAM CHAIRMAN Mary Jean Sortet Ernest jKoenigsberg IBM Schools of Business Administration 1501 California Avenue University of California Palo Alto, CA 94304 .Berkeley, CA g4720 415 854-5538 X344 415 642-1279 PUBLICATIONS CHAIRMAN Robert D. Dickey Golemhe Associates, Inc. One California Street, No. 2425 San Francisco, CA 94111 415 956-4010 REPRESENTATIVE OF SPONSORING ORGANIZATIONS ACM IEEE David H. Brandin Computer Group Harlow Freitag AIIE IEEE Computer & Information Systems Division Systems Science and Cybernetics Group Arnold Ockene Julian Reitman SHARE AllE Stuart Trask Operations Research Division A. Alan Pritsker SCI Jon N. Mangall AVE TIMS Technical Division Donald Heany William A. Smith, Jr. MOM THE GENERAL CHAIRMAN The 1973 Winter Simulation Conference represents the sixth renewal of this annual conference and its first occurrence on the West Coast since December 1969. The conference has become a major focus of the discrete simulation professional community. Traditionally, the conference has served as a forum for presentation of papers on the cutting edge of simulation application and methodology as well as a platform for tutorials by leaders in the field. This year is no excep tion. The prograni committee has succeeded in putting together an excep- tionally strong technical offering. I should emphasize that conferences like this one do not simply "happen". A great deal of work mast be done by a variety of people. In addition to the writing and reviewing of papers and the organization of sessions, there is a great deal of administrative activity needed to coordinate an event of this size.I would appeal to you to get involved with our future conferences in a number of ways. I am sure that you will get even more out of the conference if you participate. Remember, the continued success of this series of meetings depends on you. I hope that you enjoy the Conference and would personally welcome any suggestions that you might have. Next year, we'll all be in Washington, and I hope to see you all there. Joseph Sussman Cambridge December 1972 iv CONTENTS Panel 1: Simulation's Role in Project Development 1 A Cased Goods Conveyor Simulator 112 Chairman: T. A. Marlow, Bechtel Corporation Donald A. Heimburger, The Procter and Gamble Company Discrete - Event Simulation in the Engineering/ Construction Industry 1 ASimulator for Designing High-Rise Warehouse D. J. Dunne, Bechtel, Inc. Systems 128 Kailash M. Baina, Georgia Institute of Experience with Simulation Models 1 Technology T. A. Bratz, Bay Area Rapid Transit District Tutorial I: GPSS 139 Chairman: Thomas gchriber, University of Michigan Session 1:Behavior and Learning Models 2 Chairman: G. Arthur Mihram, University of Pennsylvania Session 4.Health Services 159 Chairman: Dean Uyeno, University of British Columbia Towards a Simulation Model of Motivation and An Evaluation of Expanded Function Auxil- Adjustment 3 160 Paul F. Wyman, J. W. Slocum, Jr. and Richard iaries in General Dentistry Reed. The Pennsylvania State University Kerry E. Kilpatth.k, Richard S. Mackenzie, University of Florida Simulation of an Individual Making Decisions Under Uncertainty 13 The Use of Computer Simulation in Health F. D. Tuggle, F. H, Barron and R. 0. Day, The Care Planning 172 University of Kansas 0. George Kennedy Identification of Viable Biological Strategies for A Simulation Model ,of a University Health Pest Management by Simulation Studies 32 Service Outpatient Clinic 199 W. W. Menke, University of Florida Robert Baron, Edward Rising, University of Massachusetts 226 Session 2:SimUtation Methodology I 51 Session 5:Simulation Methodology II Chairman: Mark Garman, University of California Chairman: Michael Stonebraker, University of California Use of Simulation to Test the Validity and Constrained Sequential-Block Search in Sensitivity of an Analytical Model 52 SimulEion Experimentation- 227 Prosper Bernard William E. Biles, Universi'cy of Notre Dame 242 Multiple Sequence Random Number Generators 67 Optimization of Simulation Experiments R. Taylor, W. Schmidt, V. Chachra, Virginia Joe H. Mize, Oklahoma State University Polytechnic Institute and State University A 'Wait-Until' Algorithm for General Purpose 77 A New Approach to Simulating Stable Sto.chntic Simulation Languages Systems 264 Jean G. Vaucher, Universite de Montreal Michael A. Crane, Donald L. Iglehart, Control Analysis Corporation Session 3:Inventory and Distribution 84 Chairman: Ernest Koenigsberg, University of California Session 6:Manufacturing Applications 273 Siniulation of Sequential Production Systems 85 Chairman: John W. O'Leary, Western Electric Company with In-Process Inventory David R.1Anderson, Brain D. Sellers, Mohammed Using an Extended Version of GERT to M. Shamma, University of Cincinnati Simulate Priority and Assignment Rules in a Labor Limited Jobshop System 274 A Model for Analyzing Closed-Loop Conveyor Michael J. Maggard, The University of Texas Systems with Multiple Work Stations 93 William G. Lesso, The University of Texas Lynn E. Bussey, Kansas State University and Bary L. Hogg, University of Illinois M. Palmer Terrell, Oklahoma State Univerisity Von T. Phillips, PurclueUniversity VI FROM THE PROGRAM CHAIRMAN The Winter Simulation Conference has grown to be an impressive mixture of theory and application, languages and models, techniciansand managers, and academic vs. government or industry. Simulation as a method of defining and solving problems is maturing in that major innovationshave been made and the field is now exploiting footholds which have beengained in a number of applications areas. Thus we emphasize in this sixthannual conference the applications by which we test our shared approachto model building and analysis. The of fort which has been put into thisprogram has been amply rewarded and an overview of the simulation activity hasemerged which may permit us to voice cautious optimissum aboutthe future of the field. Simulation models are producing results; theyare making significant contributions to knowledge and control of organizations. Read theseproce- edings-they are worthy of attention as a record of the currentstate of the art arid practice of discrete event simulation and the major part itnow plays in policy formation in large organizations. Austin Curwood Hoggatt Berkeley December, 1972 V Session 11: APL Applications 590 Session 13: Management Applications 718 Chairman: C. Bartlett McGuire Chairman: Arnold Ockene, Securities Industry Automation Automatron Corporation Corporate Planning Model Design- Computerized Scratch Pads 591 Corporate Simulation ModelsA Reappraisal 719 Harley M. Courtney, The University of Texas William F. Hamilton, University of Pennsylvania An Applicion of Simulation Models to A General University Simulation Model 734 Corporate PIfling Processes 604 Charles C. Daniel, National Aeronautics and Ronald A. Se, aberg, Xerox of Canada Limited Space Administration and Hama! K. Eldrin, Oklahoma State University APL Models for Operational Planning of Shipment Routing, Loading and Scheduling 622 RateRevenueCost of Service Simulation of a Richard D. Cuthbert, Xerox Corporation Natural Gas Utility 744 D. Jeffrey Blumenthal, OnLine Decisions, Inc. A Two Asset Cash Flow Simulation Model 632 Richard C. Grinold and Rober:M. Oliver, A Simulated Investment Analysis for a Gas University of California Pipeline Company 764 H. J. Miller, Colorado Interstate Gas Company Session 14: Languages for Simulation 780 Chairman: Philip Kiviat, Federal ADP Simulation Ceriter Session 12: Gaming and Man-Machine