RESEARCH A total of 201,480m² of existing office stock in the CBD market, largely secondary grade, has been withdrawn in the year to July Stock withdrawals continued to have a Bank, the refurbished vacancy at 60 2017. significant bearing on the Sydney CBD Margaret Street has been fully backfilled Tenant demand in the Sydney office market over the past six months, by ING DIRECT (moving out of 140 CBD market continued to gain with a total of 75,821m² being withdrawn Sussex Street) and Wynyard Green has traction over the past six months from the market. Of this amount, 76% or been leased to NSW Government for a with an overall net absorption 57,835m² has been withdrawn new start-up and innovation hub. In reading of 22,216m². permanently, with much of this being addition, the backfill space at Darling within the secondary market. Over the Park Tower 3, left by Marsh, has almost The Sydney CBD overall vacancy year to July 2017, 201,480m² of existing been fully leased (86% committed) to rate tightened from 6.2% in office stock (3.9% of the total stock as at various tenants including Avant Mutual January 2017 to 5.9% in July July 2016) has been taken offline for the and Dimension Data. 2017, 130bps below the 10 year Sydney Metro construction, residential average of 7.2%. conversion and redevelopment. Looking forward, new office supply in the Sydney CBD’s prime and Sydney CBD is expected to be secondary gross effective rents Sizable buildings taken out of the market significantly constrained in the next two have increased by 10.3% and over the past six months include; 55 years amid rising stock withdrawals. New 16.3% respectively over the past Hunter Street (13,622m²) and 175 office buildings coming to fruition over 12 months. Castlereagh Street (11,919m²), both are the near term will include International being demolished for the Sydney Metro House Sydney at Barangaroo (6,729m² – $2.3 billion worth of commercial project, 71-79 Macquarie Street 100% pre-committed) and Investa’s buildings in the CBD has (9,198m²) being converted to residential, Barrack Place at 151 Clarence Street transacted over the first eight and 140 Sussex Street (12,042m²), to be (21,000m²—37% pre-committed to months of 2017, with at least $2.0 fully refurbished for the Bank of China’s more billion in the pipeline. ARUP). On the other hand, circa new Sydney headquarters. 300,000m² is earmarked for permanent Core yields for prime assets in withdrawals over the next 24 months, the CBD currently range between On the supply side, 83,534m² of office with the major buildings being 39 Martin 4.50% and 5.50%, while space was delivered over the past six Place (14,525m²—Sydney Metro), 35 secondary yields measuring months. Only 31% of this amount or Bridge Street (12,330m²—hotel), 570 between 5.75% and 6.25%. 26,000m² was new completions, being George Street (21,930m²—residential) the Darling Square project, while the rest and 50 Bridge Street (54,980m²— was backfill supply stemming from 60 redevelopment). Margaret Street (10,003m²—Ex-Mirvac), Wynyard Green at 11-17 York Street Over the medium term, the next wave of (11,227m²—Ex-Navitas), Darling Park supply is expected to arrive from 2020 Tower 3 (14,823m²—Ex-Marsh), 80-82 onwards. The proposed new office Pitt Street (10,523m²—Ex-QBE) and 400 developments beyond 2020 will include George Street (8,463m²—Ex-Telstra). This 275 George Street (c.7,000m²—H1 2020), has taken the annual net supply to 60 Martin Place (40,000m²—H1 2020), 7,713m², which is about half of the 10- Barangaroo C2 (11,250m²—2020+), year average of 14,682m². Wynyard Place (68,200m²—H2 2020— 45% pre-committed by NAB), 210-220 The majority of the new supply over the George Street (c.16,000m²—2021), past six months has been fully committed Lendlease's CQT (55,000m²—H1 2021) Associate Director, Research prior to or at completion. Darling Square and AMP’s QQT (c.90,000m²—H1 2021— was occupied by the Commonwealth 40% pre-committed by AMP). Sydney CBD Office Market Indicators as at July 2017 Annual Net Average Average Total Stock Vacancy Annual Net Average Core Grade Absorption Gross Face Incentive* (m²) Rate (%) Additions (m²) Market Yield (%) (m²) Rent* ($/m²) (%) Prime 2,989,082 5.8 151,840 137,960 1,100—1,300 20.0—27.0 4.50—5.50 Secondary 2,097,234 5.9 -159,567 -125,616 750—950 17.0—20.0 5.75—6.25 Total 5,086,316 5.9 -7,727 12,344 * 2 SYDNEY CBD OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2017 RESEARCH Barangaroo T2 - 88,200m² [Westpac/Gilbert + Tobin/St George/BT] 1 LLITST - Q3 2015 - 84% committed Barangaroo T3 - 79,221m² [KPMG/Lendlease] 2 LLITST - Q2 2016 - 78% committed Barangaroo T1 - 101,571m² [PWC/HSBC/Marsh & McLennan] 3 LLOneITST - Q4 2016 - 77% committed One Wharf Lane, 161 Sussex St - 6,700m² 4 M&L Hospitality - Q3 2016 - 67% committed 80 Pitt St# (ex QBE) - 10,527m² 5 Yorkban P/L - Q1 2017 60 Margaret St# (ex Mirvac, Suncorp) - 14,174m² [ING] 6 Mirvac - H1/H2 2017 - 81% committed 201 Sussex St, DPIII# (ex Marsh & McLennan) - 10,343m² [Advant] 7 GPT (GWOF)/AMP (ACPF)/Brookfield - H1 2017 - 48% committed 32 27 International House Sydney (Barangaroo C2) - 7,440m² [Accenture] 30 8 26 LLOneITST - H1 2017 - 100% committed 28 259 George St# (ex Suncorp) - 20,352m² 3 25 9 Memocorp Australia - H2 2017 1 8 9 24 680 George St# (ex EY) - 28,033m² [GPNSW] 2 10 13 Brookfield/Arcadia - 2017 - 79% committed 6 201 Sussex St, DPII# (ex PWC) - 33,000m² [IAG] 29 11 GPT (GWOF)/AMP (ACPF)/Brookfield - 2018 - 100% committed 19 151 Clarence St - 22,000m² [ARUP] 18 5 33 12 Investa - Q3 2018 - 37% committed 15 7 17 16 201 & 207 Kent St# - 5,536m² (ex ARUP) 13 Cromwell / Investa- Q3 2018 12 34 388 George St# - 36,151m² (ex IAG) 14 14 Investa/Brookfield - H1 2020 275 Kent St# (ex Westpac) - 17,976m² 15 Blackstone/Mirvac - H2 2019 60 Martin Place - 40,000m² 16 Investa/Gwynvill Group - H1 2020 4 23 44 Martin Pl# - 9,500m² (ex Henry Davis York) 20 17 Gwynvill Group - H2 2020 Wynyard Pl - 68,250m² [NAB] 18 Brookfield - H1 2020 - 44% committed 31 11 275 George St - 6,519m² 19 John Holland - H1 2020 55 Market St# - 22,300m² (ex Westpac) 20 Mirvac - H1 2020 21 231 Elizabeth St - 22,964m² (ex Telstra)# 22 21 Glory Property - H1 2021 22 320 Pitt St - 29,159m² (ex Telstra)# ARA - H1 2021 2 Market - 18,909m² (ex Allianz)# 10 23 Allianz/Charter Hall - H1 2021 255 George St# - 22,500m² (ex NAB) 24 AMP - H2 2021 Barangaroo C1 - c. 11,000m² 25 LLOneITST - 2019+ Quay Quarter Tower (QQT) - 90,000m² 26 AMP - H1 2021 Circular Quay Tower (CQT), 182 George & 33 Pitt St - 55,000m² 27 Lendlease - H2 2021 210-220 George St - 17,000m² 28 Poly Real Estate - H2 2021 33 Bligh St - 26,000m² 29 Energy Australia/Investa - Mooted 55 Pitt St - 30,000m²+ Source of map: Knight Frank 30 Under Construction/Complete Mirvac - 2022+ DA Approved / Confirmed / Site Works Darling Park Tower 4 - 70,000m² 31 GPT/Brookfield/AMP - 2022+ Mooted / Early Feasibility Central Barangaroo - TBC≠ 32 NB. Dates are Knight Frank Research estimates. # Major refurbishment/backfill TBC* - 2024+ Includes select CBD major office supply (NLA quoted) ≠ Under the current plans, a maximum above-ground GFA of 150,000 m² and an unlimited amount underground are allowed. It is uncertain Martin Place Metro Station north tower - ex-55 Hunter Street Major tenant precommitment in [brackets] next to NLA 33 how much of this will be office space as at March 2017. TBC± - 2024+ LLITST refers Lend Lease International Towers Sydney Trust (50% CPPIB, 25% APPF Commercial, 15% Lend Lease, 10% * A consortium consisting of Grocon, Scentre and Aqualand is Martin Place Metro Station south tower - ex-39 Martin Place APG) reportedly the lead contender for development rights. 34 TBC± - 2024+ LLOneITST refers Lend Lease One International Towers Sydney ± Macquarie Group has submitted an unsolicited proposal for develop- Trust (37.5% Lend Lease, 37.5% QIA, 25% APPF Commercial) ment, which is being considered by the State Government. 3 Tenant demand in the Sydney CBD The Barangaroo International Towers have the refurbished Wynyard Green building at market continued to gain traction over achieved strong leasing results in recent 11-17 York Street. This lease commitment the past six months, as evidenced by an months, with the latest committed tenants, will be for an innovation and start-up hub overall net absorption reading of including; ICBC (4,939m²), Pernod Ricard to be opened in Q1 2018. Co-working 22,216m². This is circa 7% above the 10- (2,521m²), Susquehanna International operators Fishburners and Stone & Chalk year average of 20,737m². Contributing to (2,521m²), Morningstar (2,418m²), Ferrier have pre-committed to 4,269m² and this strong take-up was the solid leasing Hodgson (1,400m²) and Coverforce 4,253m² respectively. activity in the prime market with a total of (800m²) in Tower 1 (82% committed), Visa 102,243m² absorbed over the past six International (2340m²) in Tower 2 (87% On the back of strong absorption and months. Within the prime market, A- committed), the Executive Centre limited new supply, the Sydney CBD Grade space experienced the strongest (2,328m²) and various sub-lease tenants in overall vacancy rate tightened from 6.2% level of demand, with 66,313m² taken up Tower 3 (75% leased).