UNDERSTANDING THE DEMOCRATISATION PROCESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA AFTER THE ‘ARAB SPRING’: THE CASE OF LIBYA Abdsalam Alahwal Student Number: 3699520 Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Development Studies Institute for Social Development Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences University of the Western Cape Supervisor: Professor Suren Pillay November 2019 http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ ABSTRACT In this research study, the researcher explores the democratisation process in the Middle East and North African region (MENA), with Libya as the case study. The study is based on the views of students and lecturers from universities in the three major regions of post-revolution Libya – Tripoli, Benghazi and Sabha – and examines how the relationship between democracy and revolution is perceived. The causes of the Arab Spring revolution, as well as its economic, social and political implications are presented in the study, based on reviewed literature, and the perspectives drawn from the study sample. Finally, the researcher presents the challenges and barriers to the process of democratisation after the Arab Spring. In pursuit of these issues, the researcher explores the following main research questions: • How do students and lecturers describe the relationship that exists between the Arab Spring revolution and democracy? • What are the causes of the Arab Spring in Libya according to the opinions of students and lecturers? • What are the implications of the Arab Spring in MENA and in Libya? The study adopted a descriptive research approach, using quantitative and qualitative data. A major finding of the study revealed that there is a connection between the revolution and democracy, and that the barriers to the process of democratisation are inextricably linked to the political, economic and social implications of the Arab Spring, which has caused major security and stability repercussions in the country. The researcher argues that, based on the opinions of the study sample, the Arab Spring revolution was necessary to initiate the process of democracy, and the barriers to the process of democracy are linked to the imbalance of the political and economic structures of the country, including the cultural-tribal base of the Libyan society. In order to address the barriers to the democratisation process, the researcher argues for the development of a hybrid democracy that takes into consideration the broader political, historical and cultural sensitivities of the Libyan people, and the MENA region. i http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ KEY WORDS Arab Spring Democracy Dictatorship Libya MENA Revolution Tribe ii http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AQIM: al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb ASU: Arab Socialist Union BAM: al-Bunyan al- Marsous BPC: Basic People’s Committees EU: European Union FACT: Front pour l’alternance et la concorde au Tchad FLN: Front de Libération Nationale GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council GDP: Gross domestic product GNA: Government of National Accord GNC: General National Congress GPC: General People's Congress HOR: House of Representatives ICT: Information, Communications and Technology (ICT) ISIL: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ITNC: Interim Transitional National Council IYSC: The Islamic Youth Shura Council JEM: Justice and Equality Movement (Sudan) LCG: Libya Contact Group LIFG: Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LINC Libyan Interim National Council LNA: Libyan National Army LPA: Libyan Political Agreement MENA: Middle East and North Africa NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NOC: National Oil Controls NSAGs: Non-state armed groups NSG: National Salvation Government NRA: National Resistance Army NTC: National Transitional Council POS: Political Opportunity Structure iii http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ PC: Presidential Council PSLC: Popular Social Leadership Council RCC: Revolutionary Command Council SPSS: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences UGTT: Tunisian General Labour Union (French: Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail) iv http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ GLOSSARY OF ARABIC WORDS Bay’ah: electoral endorsement Buyut: sub-tribes called, into family groups called Caliph: Leader of Islamic state Ijma: consensus Ijtihad: independent reasoning Lahma: family groups Qabila: tribe Sheikh sharifs: holy tribes Shura: consultation Sunnah: prophetic model v http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ DECLARATION I declare that Understanding the democratisation process in the Middle East and North Africa after the ‘Arab Spring’: The case of Libya is my own work, that it has not been submitted for any degree or examination at any other university, and that all the sources I have used or quoted, have been indicated and acknowledged by complete references. Name: Abdsalam Alahwal Date: November 2019 Signature:…………………………………………… vi http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my loving mother and my wife. “In the name of Allah, Most Gracious, Most Merciful (1) Praise be to Allah, the Cherisher and Sustainer of the worlds (2) Most Gracious, Most Merciful (3) Master of the Day of Judgment (4) Thee alone do we worship, and Thine aid alone we seek (5) Guide us to the straight path (6) The path of those on whom Thou hast bestowed Thy Grace, not of those who have earned your anger, nor those who have gone astray (7).” “True are the words of God.” Sûrat Al-Fâtihah (The Opening 1) vii http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS While I am alone responsible for this thesis, it is nonetheless, at least, as much a product of years of interaction with, and inspiration by, a large number of friends and colleagues, as it is my own work. For this reason, I wish to express my warmest gratitude to all those people, whose comments, questions, criticism, support and encouragement, personal and academic, have left a mark on this work. I also wish to thank those institutions that supported me during the work on this thesis. Regrettably, but inevitably, the following list of names will be incomplete, and I hope that those who are missing, will forgive me and will still accept my sincere appreciation of their influence on my work. First and above all, I praise Allah, the almighty for providing me with this opportunity, and for granting me the ability to proceed, successfully. Gratitude goes to Professor Suren Pillay, for the supervision, critical and invaluable inputs, short of which this dissertation would not have been completed. I must say that I have grown academically, and have had a life-changing experience. Your guidance has taught me much. Thanks to all the staff at the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences (EMS) at UWC. I extend my sincere thanks to Prof Bhekithemba Mngomezulu, for his time and kindness and also to Ursula Arends from the Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS) for her editorial assistance in bringing this thesis together. A vote of thanks goes to the Centre for Humanities Research, for the facilities and research materials, made available to me, during my study period. Nameless in this document, due to concern for their confidentiality, I cannot express how open and honest all my research samples were, even while knowing that the information they provided could easily be misconstrued, or could get them into trouble. I hope I have lived up to their trust, while trying to explain a bit of the Libyan circumstances. Thanks also goes to the head of the Political Science Department at the University of Sabha, the head of the Political Science Department at the University of Tripoli, and the Political Science Department of Benghazi University, for agreeing to be interviewed for this thesis. viii http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ Thank you to my colleagues at the UWC, for the comments, company, friendship and encouragement, even during the most trying and challenging times. You made my stay in Cape Town, South Africa, warm and comfortable. I owe a great debt of gratitude to Whafieka Martin for offering valuable advice and support during my study, I will never forget you. Last, but not the least, I would like to thank my family ‒ my parents, my wife, my brothers and sisters ‒ from whom I was separated, despite the mountains, hills, rivers, deserts, dictatorships, civil wars and democracies that separated us, for supporting me spiritually, throughout writing this thesis, as well as my life, in general. May Allah give you all the best, in return. ix http://etd.uwc.ac.za/ TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT………………………………………………………..……….………………… I KEY WORDS ………………………………………………….……………………………..II ABBREVIATIONS……………………………………….…………….……………………III GLOSSARY OF ARABIC WORDS………………………………….…...…………………V DECLARATION………………………...…………………………………...……..……… VI DEDICATION…………………………………………..……………………….………… VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………..…………………VIII APPENDICES……………………………………………...………………………….…XVIII LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………...……………..……… XVIII LIST OF FIGURES………………..……………….………………...………...………..…XX LIST OF MAPS………………………..……………………………………………...…… XX 1 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 RATIONALE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ................................................................... 2 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ....................................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 MAIN RESEARCH QUESTION ...............................................................................................