13 ENVIRONMENT AND TRANSPORT OVERVIEW AND SCRUTINY COMMITTEE – 9 JUNE 2016 LEICESTER TO BURTON RAILWAY LINE Comments received from Dr. T. Eynon CC As Local Member for Coalville, I welcome the report by AECOM into the potential costs and benefits of reinstating passenger transport along the Leicester to Burton rail corridor. I especially welcome AECOM's statement that (7.4.3) "further work may be beneficial to robustly support decisions relating to the progress of the scheme. In particular, use of the updated LLITM model may generate additional demand and a detailed bottom-up costing exercise may reduce the capital costs". I am concerned at the conclusions being drawn by the County Council. Further work is needed It goes without saying that "costs would need to be met by central government through the submission of a robust business case demonstrating sound value for money in terms of transport economics and wider economic benefits." (Briefing notes #10). The Council is going beyond the evidence in the report when it attempts to persuade Members that "The study has identified that such a business case could not be produced." (Briefing notes #10). The evidence provided by AECOM does not support the County Council's advice lto members that "the County Council should undertake no further investigatory work on the proposal at this time." (Briefing notes #2b). Far from concluding that no further progress is possible, this Council should work regionally and strategically, using innovative technologies, to assess whether or not a satisfactory cost benefit ratio can be achieved. I urge members of the Environment and Transport Scrutiny Committee to examine the evidence provided by AECOM, noting the final conclusions, and draw their own conclusions. Aspirations In his briefing paper (#5), the Director of Environment & Transport reminds Members that in 2009, just before the 2010 General Election, it was considered that, in the case of the Leicester to Burton line, "reintroduction of passenger services was a valid long-term aspiration". 14 When I moved to Coalville in 1994, with a high-flying career that involved regular trips to London, I was told that the Leicester to Burton line would be open within 5 years. 22 years later, Coalville is struggling to expand and regenerate. The SE Coalville development is hampered by the prospect of congestion on the A511. Sitting between the A42 and M1, a town that should be ideally situated for the aspirational commuter is the subject of a remedial "Coalville Project". Pre-election promises in 2015 to revisit the Leicester to Burton line raised hopes in my town. Neighbouring cities are coming up with innovative transport solutions. Trams that can run on rail and road are now a proven technology. The advice to mothball the project once again suggests that, with the next General Election 4 years away, there is no political will to overcome the technical barriers. Investment The Leicestershire and Leicester Rail Strategy (#14) expects that "rail passenger numbers will continue to grow as they have done since 1994, putting ever increasing pressures on rail capacity (line and train). In its East Midlands Route Study, Network Rail is forecasting increases in overall passenger numbers of between 30% and 40% by 2023 and between 50% to over 100% by 2043." The developing industrial corridor along the Leicester to Burton line is providing thousands of jobs. A recent RAC report condemned North West Leicestershire for having some of the worst public transport provision in the country and the highest used of the private car to get to work. Not only are aspirational commuters being let down in North West Leicestershire. The lack of investment in public transport expects low-paid workers in insecure employment to subsidise the economy's need for a mobile workforce. Technofix Transport Strategy solutions, such as online home-working and driverless cars, as discussed at the recent Members briefing, will do nothing to assist warehouse workers to travel from Leicester and Burton to workplaces in Bardon and SE Coalville. The Rail Strategy briefing advises members that "it is important for Leicester and Leicestershire to be as best placed as is possible to seek to secure future investments in the area’s rail network and services." The failure to integrate the Leicester to Burton line into the Council's rail strategy condemns North West Leicestershire to finding itself "at significant economic disadvantage in comparison to other parts of the country." (#24) Predetermination 15 AECOM made it clear at several points in their report that the Transport Model favoured by Leicestershire cannot be relied upon. It is also clear that the original intention of the paper was hampered by a predetermination not to explore the options fully. I lost count of the number of times AECOM said "During the course of this study it became apparent that there was a need for additional work in order to inform the ongoing debate around whether the scheme as a whole is likely to be able to generate a sufficiently robust business case and is therefore worth pursuing." (6.9.1) They made this point six times and it is clear from their overall conclusion as stated above that the report does not support the County Council's determination not to pursue options further. Limitations AECOM comments that the Leicester and Leicestershire Integrated Transport Model (LLITM) "in common with all multi-modal transport models, forecasts generally very low rail growth over time, much lower than has been observed in recent years in reality." (5.6.1) It adds that "use of the current version of the model contains a number of caveats, many of which will be resolved or improved in the next version of the LLITM model which is being developed and expected in 2016 - this year. As a result, the demand and revenue that has been forecast in this case might be considered to be understated." (7.2.3) AECOM also advise that the high level cost estimates are "now out of date and will not reflect current engineering and costing practices." (4.4.2) The original intention of the study was a ‘reverse engineered’ appraisal designed to identify the level of capital cost required in order to generate milestone Benefit Cost Ratios (such as 1.0 (i.e. ‘breakeven’) and 1.5). AECOM do not advise closing down the debate. The County Council's determination to prove the project unaffordable is an attempt to do so. Duty to co-operate Further limitations in the study include a failure in the duty to co-operate with neighbouring authorities. AECOM note that "Flows to/from Burton account for a significant majority of the demand being forecast." (5.3.16) Despite this obvious need for cross-county and cross-regional partnership working, this study has been conducted in grand isolation using a Leicestershire-centric Transport Model that "currently contains no bus demand outside Leicestershire at all, 16 meaning there would be no bus demand outside the county that could potentially switch to rail." (5.2.1) AECOM note that "bus services between Burton and Ashby currently take 45 minutes and are every 20 minutes, while the rail service would take only 14 minutes with a 60 minute headway, which looks very good by comparison." (5.3.11) Despite the housing growth planned for Bagworth, LCC are closing down the options without discussion with Hinckley & Bosworth Borough Council. Housing growth along the Leicester to Burton corridor is significantly greater than that planned for South Leicestershire yet money has been brought in to improve the Midland Mainline at Market Harborough. The Leicester to Burton route travels through Staffordshire, Derbyshire, Leicester City as well as Leicestershire. Without any discussion with neighbouring authorities, LCC goes beyond the evidence in advising Members that passenger transport along the Leicester-Burton line "could not be afforded by the County Council or a combination of local authorities". The inability of Leicestershire to work in partnership with neighbouring authorities on strategic projects does not bode well for the Government's Devolution agenda. Knighton Curve On page 54 of the Leicester & Leicestershire Rail Strategy the County Council is advised that "The removal of the east-to-north connection at Knighton Junction many years ago severed the direct link to and from Leicester station. The former alignment has been sold and extensively redeveloped, meaning reinstatement would be very expensive." AECOM also note that "The Knighton Curve would be required to join the line to the Midland Main Line. " (7.2.1) AECOM also observe that there is generally substantially higher usage of the scheme being predicted in the northwest (e.g. Burton-Ashby) than in the southeast (e.g. Leicester-Leicester Forest East). (5.3.10) The predetermined focus on the Knighton Curve and failure to work with strategic partners has prematurely closed down the options for the Leicester to Burton transport corridor. LCC have chosen not to examine the possibility that people from Burton (Staffordshire), Gresley (Derbyshire), Coalville and Moira (NWLeics), Bagworth (Hinckley and Bosworth) might want to go direct to London or via Burton to Nottingham, Derby and Birmingham. 17 Rather than Reinstating Knighton North Curve why not direct trains direct from Burton via Coalville to London? Build a station at Knighton and passengers to Leicester from Burton and Coalville could change trains. Are people living in Coalville not allowed to aspire to a job in London? Are people currently working in the South East not allowed to aspire to a home in the National Forest? Conclusion The County Council are going beyond the evidence in the AECOM report in closing down further investigatory work on the proposal to use the Leicester to Burton Line for passenger transport.