Special Report CHANGE AND CHALLENGE­ THE SEARCH FOR PEACE IN 1988 A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY PREPARED UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE AUSA INSTITUTE OF LAND WARFARE ASSOCIATION OF THE UNI TED STATES ARMY 2425 WILSON BOULEVARD ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22201-3385 A Nonprofit, Educational Association Reproduction of this Report, in whole or in part, is authorized with appropriate acknowledgment of the source. CHANGE AND CHALLENGE - THE SEARCH FOR PEACE IN 1988 A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT CHRONOLOGY OF SIGNIFICANT THE MIDDLE EAST .......................Page 27 EVENTS ................................Page 2 Egypt ..................................Page 27 Libya ..................................Page 28 INTRODUCTION ........ ..................Page 3 Lebanon ...............................Page 29 NATO AND THE WARSAW PACT Syria ..................................Page 29 A 1988 Balance ...........................Page 4 Israel ..................................Page 30 Jordan .................................Page 31 WESTERN EUROPE AND THE NATO NATIONS Iran . ............. ... .....· .... .....Page 31 Canada ................................Page 5 Iraq ...................................Page 32 Great Britain ...........................Page 6 Saudi Arabia ...........................Page 33 Denmark ..............................Page 8 France .................................Page 8 ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ..................Page 34 Netherlands ................. ...........Page 9 Japan .................................Page 34 Federal Republic of Germany ......... ....Page 9 Republic of Korea .......................Page 36 Italy ................................... Page 10 North Korea ............................Page 36 Spain ..................................Page 10 China .. ...............................Page 37 Portugal ...............................Page 11 Taiwan ................................Page 38 Greece .................................Page 11 Philippines .............................Page 38 Turkey ................................Page 12 Vietnam ...............................Page 39 Cambodia ..............................Page 39 EASTERN EUROPE AND THE Thailand ...............................Page 40 SOVIET UNION .........................Page 13 India ..................................Page 41 USSR .................................Page 13 Pakistan ...............................Page 41 Poland ................................Page 15 Afghanistan ............................Page 42 The German Democratic Republic .........Page 16 Czechoslovakia .........................Page 16 MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA AND Hungary ...............................Page 17 THE CARIBBEAN .......................Page 43 Romania ...............................Page 17 Mexico ................................Page 44 Bulgaria ........................... ....Page 18 Guatemala .............................Page 44 Yugoslavia ......................... ....Page 19 Honduras ..............................Page 45 El Salvador .............................Page 46 AFRICA .......................' ... ......... Page 19 Nicaragua .............. ............... Page 46 Morocco .. .............................Page 20 Costa Rica .............................Page 47 Algeria ................................Page 21 Panama ................................Page 47 Tunisia ......................... .......Page 21 Cuba ..................................Page 48 Ethiopia ...............................Page 22 Haiti ..................................Page 48 Sudan .................................Page 23 Nigeria .. ..............................Page 23 SOUTH AMERICA .........................Page 49 Namibia ...............................Page 24 Colombia ..............................Page 49 Angola ................................Page 24 Venezuela ..............................Page 51 South Africa ...........................Page 25 Brazil ..................................Page 52 Zimbabwe .............................Page 26 Ecuador ...............................Page 52 Mozambique ........................... Page 26 Peru ...................................Page 53 Bolivia .................................Page 53 Paraguay ..............................Page 54 Argentina ..............................Page 55 Chile ..................................Page 55 CONCLUSION .............................Page 56 A CHRONOLOGY OF THE YEAR'S MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS January 6 - Soviets announce intent to withdraw July 3 -U.S. Navy shoots down Iranian jet from Afghanistan. liner over Persian Gulf. January 13 - Taiwan's President, Chiang Ching­ August 4 - Floods leave millions homeless in kuo, dies. Bangladesh. February 5 -U.S. indicts Panama Gen. Noriega August 8 - Angolan-South African truce de­ on drug charges. clared following U.S.- mediated February 25 - Soviets remove East German missiles talks. in first step of INF treaty. August 17 - Pakistani President Zia killed in February 26 - Panama's president Eric Arturo plane crash; sabotage suspected. Devalle ousted, plan to fire Noriega August 20 - Cease-fire takes effect in Gulf War. fails. August 30 -Morocco, Sahara rebels accept UN March 16 - Iraqi poison gas attack kills Kurds in peace plan. Iraqi town. September 17 - Haiti-Military noncommissioned March 17 -U.S. troops sent to Honduras in re­ officers oust President Namphy; sponse to reported Nicaraguan install Gen. Prosper Avril as new incursion. leader. March 23 - Nicaragua signs cease-fire accord September 18 -Gen. Saw Maung stages coup in with Contras. Burma, hundreds killed. March 26 - Moscow bars Armenian reunifica­ October 3 - Libya-Chad restore ties; war tion bid; miiitary cracks down. formally ends. April 5 -Added U.S. troops sent to Panama November 8 - George Bush elected President of the to protect bases. United States. April 18 - U.S. sinks six Iranian vessels in Per­ December 1 - Benazir Bhutto named Prime Min- sian Gulf battle. ister of Pakistan. May 8 - Mitterrand re-elected President of December 1 - Salinas becomes President of France. Mexico. May 8 - Rodrigo Borja Cevallos elected Pres- December 4 - Carlos Andres Perez elected Presi­ ident of Ecuador. dent of Venezuela. May 15 - First Soviet troops begin withdrawal December 7 - Gorbachev announces European from Afghanistan. troop reductions. May 26 - Vietnam announces withdrawal of December 7 - Soviet Armenia hit by massive earth­ troops from Cambodia. quake; 50,000 feared dead; 500,000 homeless. 2 CHANGE AND CHALLENGE- THE SEARCH FOR PEACE IN 1988 INTRODUCTION time, we are increasingly dependent on world resources and there is a growing interdependence in terms of This presentation indentifies some of the conditions world trade and a world economy. and events-military, social, economic and political­ Our long term economic and security interests are of a number of selected countries throughout the world clearly interrelated, and the American people must and assesses their impact on both world and regional understand that security policies, including forward security. We have attempted to highltght those which deployments of forces, are based on the need to further directly affect the security interests of the United States. our national interests and not simply for altruistic The dominant message from 1988 is one of change motivations. and the need for the United States to both lead and ac­ Managing change is what we as a nation are facing commodate realistically to world dynamics. We see and this requires clear, fresh and positive thinking. ·changing balances and greater interdependence along This assessment of the events of our world in 1988 is a with continued third world turbulence. project of the AUSA Institute of Land Warfare under Some very significant events occurred during this past its director, LTG Richard L. West, USA Ret. COL year which are going to mold the course of world events Thomas D. Byrne, USA Ret., was the principal editor into the 20th century-some positive and some negative, for the sixth year. The major contributors to this work but there is a great stirring of the pot. were: GEN Glenn K. Otis, GEN Frederick J. Kroesen, Ten years ago, Robert J. Samuelson wrote in The GEN Robert W. Sennewald and GEN John R. Guthrie, National Journal: all USA Ret., MG Robert F. Cocklin, AUS Ret ., and Thomas J. Lang and Patrick J. Donovan, staff mem­ We haven't become weaker so much as other bers of the Institute of Land Warfare. MSGT (Ret.) nations have become stronger. All our advantages George E. Ehling compiled the vital statistics for each have eroded: the overwhelming military domi­ nation and maintained the daily files essential to this ef­ nance, the unquestioned economic stability, the fort. Lori Johnston and Ginger Terry provided crucial unsurpassed technological superiority, the bound­ administrative assistance. Final responsibility for less natural resources. We confront a world in resolving differences of opinion rested with the which nations still aren't equal, but are Jess undersigned. unequal. While the United States does not enjoy the economic primacy of post-World War II, it is very much the domi­ nant superpower in terms of combined economic and military strength. How we react as a nation and how we JACK N. MERRITT exercise national leadership does make a difference. We General, USA Ret. have global interests and responsibilities. At the same Executive Vice President EDITORS NOTE: Since we do not cover each of the 217 nations of the world, the selection of coun­ tries for this report is a subjective judgement