NSW Legislative Council Election 2015 Background Paper No 01/2018 by Antony Green RELATED PUBLICATIONS • Green A, NSW Legislative Assembly election 2015: Two-party preferred results by polling place, Background Paper 2/2015, July 2015 • Green A, 2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, Background Paper 1/2015, July 2015 • Green A, NSW Legislative Assembly election 2011: Two-party preferred results by polling place, Background Paper 1/2012, February 2012 • Green A, 2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, Background Paper 3/2011, September 2011 • Green A, 2011 NSW Election Preview – Analysis of past voting patterns by electorate, Background Paper 1/2011, March 2011 ISSN 1325-4456 ISBN May 2018 © 2018 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior consent from the Manager, NSW Parliamentary Research Service, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. NSW Legislative Council Election 2015 by Antony Green NSW PARLIAMENTARY RESEARCH SERVICE Matthew Dobson (BA (Psych Hons), PhD), Senior Manager, Health, Media and Communications ................. (02) 9230 2356 Daniel Montoya (BEnvSc (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Environment/Planning ......................... (02) 9230 2003 Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Senior Research Officer, Law ....................................................... (02) 9230 2768 Chris Angus (BA(Media&Comm), LLM(Juris Doctor)), Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 2906 Tom Gotsis (BA, LLB, Dip Ed, Grad Dip Soc Sci) Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 3085 Laura Ismay (BIGS, GCert Mig Law), Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 2484 Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author. Information about Research Publications can be found online. Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. New South Wales Legislative Council Election 2015 by Antony Green Symbols and Abbreviations .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP GRP Group Party Abbreviations - Unaffiliated Candidates ACP Australian Cyclists Party AJP Animal Justice Party ALP Australian Labor Party AMP Australian Motorists Party BAP Building Australia Party CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) CLR Country Labor CP #Country Party DEM Australian Democrats FP The Fishing Party FUT #Future Party IND Independents GRN The Greens LIB Liberal Party L/NP Liberal / National NAT The Nationals NLT No Land Tax NPM No Parking Meters Party ORP Outdoor Recreation Party OTH Others SA Socialist Alliance SFP Shooters and Fishers Party (re-named Shooters, Fishers and Farmers since 2015) STR #Strata Party VEP Voluntary Euthanasia Party (# – not registered parties) Acknowledgments I would like to thank the staff of the State Electoral Office for their assistance in providing election results used in the production of this publication. The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC Television and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. He is an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney. Antony has prepared numerous publications for the Parliamentary Library on election, redistributions and other electoral matters. CONTENTS Table Page Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 Statistical Highlights ........................................................................................ 2 Section 1 - Summaries of Results 1.1 Summary of Vote by Party ......................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Party Composition of Retiring and Continuing Legislative Councillors ...................................... 4 New and Departing Members at 2015 Election ......................................................................... 5 Legislative Council Membership – May 2018 ............................................................................ 6 1.3 Detail of First Preferences by Party and Candidate ................................................................... 7 1.4 Distribution of Preferences (Tables 1.4 to 1.20) ...................................................................... 16 1.21 Summary of Preference Distributions ...................................................................................... 26 1.22 Incidence of Above and Below the Line voting ........................................................................ 27 1.23 Register of Group Second Preferences ................................................................................... 28 1.24 Party Percentage by Vote Type ............................................................................................... 29 Section 2 - Legislative Council Results by Electorate 2.1 Comparison of Assembly and Council Party Vote by Electorate ............................................. 30 Regional Classification of Electorates ...................................................................................... 33 2.2 Summary of Legislative Council Vote by Region ..................................................................... 34 2.3 Detail of Legislative Council Vote by Electorate ...................................................................... 35 Section 3 - Summary of Party Vote by Electorate (Ordered by % Vote) 3.1 Liberal / Nationals (Group E) ................................................................................................... 59 3.2 Labor / Country Labor (Group K) ............................................................................................. 60 3.3 The Greens (Group S) ............................................................................................................. 61 3.4 Shooters and Fishers Party (Group N) .................................................................................... 62 3.5 Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) (Group Q) ........................................................ 63 3.6 No Land Tax (Group A) ............................................................................................................ 64 3.7 Animal Justice Party (Group C) ............................................................................................... 65 3.8 Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Group L) ..................................................................................... 66 3.9 No Parking Meters Party (Group I) .......................................................................................... 67 3.10 The Fishing Party (Group R) .................................................................................................... 68 3.11 Outdoor Recreation Party (Group D) ....................................................................................... 69 3.12 Australian Motorists Party (Group F) ....................................................................................... 70 3.13 Australian Democrats (Group T) .............................................................................................. 71 3.14 Australian Cyclists Party (Group X) ......................................................................................... 72 3.15 Building Australia Party (Group G) ........................................................................................... 73 3.16 Socialist Alliance (Group O) ..................................................................................................... 74 3.17 Buttell (Ind) (Group D) .............................................................................................................. 75 3.18 Liu (Ind) (Group J) .................................................................................................................... 76 3.19 #Strata Party (Group H) ........................................................................................................... 77 3.20 #Future Party (Group M) .......................................................................................................... 78 3.21 Thaler (Ind) (Group P) .............................................................................................................. 79 3.22 Ungrouped ............................................................................................................................... 80 3.23 #Country Party (Group V) ........................................................................................................ 81 3.24 Erwin (Ind) (Group W) .............................................................................................................. 82 3.25 Stefanac (Ind) (Group U).......................................................................................................... 83 3.26 Total Minor Party Vote ............................................................................................................