Hildegunn Elstad Christiansen Strategies for promoting affordable housing in Oslo: a case of strong path dependence? A master’s thesis in International Social Welfare and Health Policy Supervisor: Jardar Sørvoll Oslo, November 2020 Oslo Metropolitan University Faculty of Social Science Department of Social Work, Child Welfare and Social Policy Summary This paper is an analysis of the new policy paper for the provision of affordable housing in Oslo, ‘Nye veier til egen bolig’ (new paths to a permanent home), launched by the City Government of Oslo in January 2019. The policy paper is examined in the theoretical light provided by Bengtsson and Ruonavaara’s weak (non-deterministic) conception of path dependence. I have identified the main political strategies for the provision of affordable housing in Oslo and mapped out four criteria based on three key moments (critical junctures) of in Norwegian housing history that I have used to discuss and measure the degree of path dependence in the affordable housing strategies: owner-orientation, rental-friendliness, market-orientation and subsidy-friendliness. The Danish housing scheme Almenbolig+ is included as a comparative element in the analysis, as the City Government have suggested to adapt this from Copenhagen. In the discussion I argue that there are varying degrees of path dependence in today’s affordable housing strategies, but the main tendency is that ownership strategies are the most emphasized and that the ambivalence towards rental housing still persists. The research questions of this paper are: 1) What are the main political strategies of the new policy paper (Nye veier til egen bolig) for the provision of affordable housing in Oslo? 2) To what extent do the affordable housing strategies of the City Government and the surrounding political debates reflect a strong path dependency? The purpose of this study is to shed light on the historical preconditions shaping the affordable housing strategies in Oslo. I also seek to contribute to the scholarly literature on path dependence and housing. Contrary to many other studies in this research field, I do not take path dependence for granted, but seek to measure and discuss the causal strength of the critical junctures of the past. 2 Preface A big thank you to my supervisor, Jardar Sørvoll, who as introduced me to the world of housing studies and provided valuable guidance along the way. I would also like to thank Husbanken and the Faculty of Social Sciences at OsloMet for master’s scholarships. Finally, I would like to thank the department of Ageing Research and Housing Studies at NOVA for warmly welcoming me at department meetings. 3 Table of Contents SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 2 PREFACE .................................................................................................................................................... 3 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 6 RESEARCH QUESTION ................................................................................................................................................. 8 BACKGROUND: AFFORDABLE HOUSING STRATEGIES IN OSLO....................................................................... 9 THE CURRENT HOUSING MARKET IN OSLO ...................................................................................................................... 9 OSLO CITY COUNCIL’S POLICY PLAN: FILLING THE GAP BETWEEN SOCIAL HOUSING AND MARKET-BASED HOUSING ...................... 12 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................................... 13 DEFINITIONS OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING ....................................................................................................................... 13 THE THEORY OF PATH DEPENDENCE ............................................................................................................................ 15 Critical junctures and focal points ................................................................................................................. 16 Social mechanisms and context .................................................................................................................... 17 Critique of path dependency ......................................................................................................................... 18 FOUR CRITERIA FOR MEASURING THE DEGREE OF PATH DEPENDENCE ................................................................................. 19 CRITICAL JUNCTURES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING POLICIES IN OSLO ...................................................... 20 Critical juncture 1: 1935 - Oslo municipality’s deal with OBOS.................................................................... 20 Critical juncture 2: 1988 - The deregulation of the housing cooperatives, a change to a market-oriented housing regime .............................................................................................................................................. 21 Critical juncture 3: 1995 - the big shift in the provision of social housing from general brick and mortar subsidies to selective economic support to disadvantaged groups .............................................................. 23 THE FOUR CRITERIA FOR “TESTING” AND WEIGHTING THE STRENGTH OF PATH DEPENDENCE .................................................. 24 Owner-orientation......................................................................................................................................... 24 Rental-friendliness......................................................................................................................................... 24 Market-orientation ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Subsidy-friendliness ....................................................................................................................................... 25 DATA COLLECTION .................................................................................................................................... 26 Systematic search.......................................................................................................................................... 26 ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................. 28 MAIN GOALS OF NYE VEIER TIL EGEN BOLIG .................................................................................................................. 29 Goal 1: Enable more people to buy housing ................................................................................................. 30 Goal 2: Increased stability and predictability in the rental market .............................................................. 31 THE PILOT PROJECTS ................................................................................................................................................ 32 Pilot 1: Rental housing inspired by the Danish Almenbolig+-model ............................................................. 32 Pilot 2: Housing for first-time buyers (etablererbolig) .................................................................................. 34 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................................................. 35 CRITERIA 1: OWNER-ORIENTATION ............................................................................................................................ 35 Strategy 1a: ‘Housing for first-time buyers’- an entrance ticket to the market ........................................... 36 The ‘sense of ownership’ ............................................................................................................................... 36 The problem is not the lack of available housing, but the accessibility of the market ................................. 37 What degree of path dependence do the criteria of owner-orientation indicate? ...................................... 38 CRITERIA 2: RENTAL-FRIENDLINESS............................................................................................................................. 38 A continuation of the anti-landlord sentiments – the small scale rentals .................................................... 39 Almenbolig+ - a prioritization of rental housing? ......................................................................................... 40 What degree of path dependence do the criteria of rental-friendliness indicate? ....................................... 40 CRITERIA 3: MARKED-ORIENTATION ........................................................................................................................... 41 “The price development has changed important premises for current housing policy” .............................. 41 “The municipality has to develop solutions that do not involve a high degree of municipal subsidies” ...... 42 The principle of equality – everyone should own a home, but preferably not several ................................. 43 4 What degree of path dependence