JAPAN’S POPULATION CRISIS: DETERMINING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF JAPANESE POPULATION POLICY _______________ A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of San Diego State University _______________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in Political Science _______________ by Christopher John Pirotto Summer 2016 iii Copyright © 2016 by Christopher John Pirotto All Rights Reserved iv DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my parents. Thank you for all your love and support. I would also like to dedicate this thesis to my Grandpa Keith, the other educator and bike lover in the family. v ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS Japan’s Population Crisis: Determining the Effectiveness of Japanese Population Policy by Christopher John Pirotto Master of Arts in Political Science San Diego State University, 2016 The focus of this thesis is to determine which population policies have been effective in Japan to combat the decreasing population and low fertility rate. This thesis begins with explaining why the fertility rate has decreased in the last several decades and why the population is currently decreasing. There are many reasons why the fertility rate dropped and continues to remain well below replacement level. These reasons include high opportunity costs for women if they get married, traditional gender roles and expectations, a labor industry not conducive to a fair work and family balance, individuals choosing to live independently, a weak economy and economic concerns, and a decline of desirable partners. This thesis then explores the various policies the government has implemented in response to these problems. These policies all have the main objective of increasing the fertility rate. I hypothesize that workplace oriented policies are more effective population policies than child-rearing related policies. Original interview and survey questions were created to test this hypothesis by testing the knowledge of population policies, determine how friendly work environments are towards new parents, and measure the level of confidence in job security for individuals who wish to take advantage of policies such as childcare leave. Data was collected across four different regions in Japan between December 2014 and May 2015. At this time literature and government studies have largely ignored the issue of how effective specific population policies are. It is the hope that this thesis can provide a glimpse into which policies are not being as effective as they potentially could be while at the same time providing a blueprint and encouragement for other researchers to ask questions similar to those in this thesis. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................1 Research Questions and Hypothesis ........................................................................5 Significance of the Research ....................................................................................6 Layout of the Study ..................................................................................................7 2 HISTORICAL DISCUSSION .......................................................................................9 Tokugawa Period (1603-1868) ..............................................................................10 Meiji Restoration to World War Two (1868-1945) ...............................................12 Post War Japan .......................................................................................................15 Summary ................................................................................................................18 3 EXPLANATIONS FOR THE LOW FERTILITY RATE ...........................................19 Women in the Workplace ......................................................................................23 Role in the Family and Gender Roles ....................................................................24 The Economy and Education .................................................................................25 Summary ................................................................................................................28 4 POLICY RESPONSES ................................................................................................29 Child Allowance and Tax Deductions ...................................................................30 Childcare Service Policies .....................................................................................31 Healthcare for Children ..........................................................................................33 Maternity Leave and Childcare Leave ...................................................................34 Policies Targeting Employers ................................................................................36 vii Immigration Policies ..............................................................................................39 Japanese Descendants ......................................................................................40 Non-Japanese Descendants ..............................................................................41 Immigration as a Solution ......................................................................................43 Summary ................................................................................................................44 5 METHODS AND DATA COLLECTION ..................................................................45 Data Collection ......................................................................................................46 Data Analysis .........................................................................................................49 6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ..................................................................................50 Description of Participants .....................................................................................50 Knowledge of the Population Problems and Child-Rearing Benefits ...................53 Child Allowance ..............................................................................................56 Childcare Costs ................................................................................................60 Healthcare Costs ..............................................................................................63 Workplace Related Results ....................................................................................64 Maternity and Childcare Leave ........................................................................65 Workplace Environment and Equality .............................................................72 Summary: A Comparison Across Various Policies ...............................................75 7 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................78 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................80 viii LIST OF TABLES PAGE Table 1. Highest Education Obtained vs Percentage of Childless Individuals ........................26 Table 2. Amount of Allowance Paid per Child ........................................................................31 Table 3. Description of Interviewees .......................................................................................51 Table 4. Age Group Breakdown ..............................................................................................51 Table 5. Gender and Current Relationship Status ....................................................................52 Table 6. Participant’s Location in Japan ..................................................................................52 Table 7. Highest Education Level Obtained ............................................................................52 Table 8. Current Employment Status .......................................................................................52 Table 9. Gender and Current Employment Status ...................................................................53 Table 10. Number of Children .................................................................................................53 Table 11. What is the Japanese Population Doing? .................................................................54 Table 12. Does the Government Want People to Have More Children? .................................54 Table 13. Name Something the Government is Doing to Encourage People to Have More Children. .............................................................................................................55 Table 14. Have You Heard of the Child Allowance? ..............................................................56 Table 15. Who is Eligible to Receive Child Allowance Benefits? ..........................................57 Table 16. Do You Receive