Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Introduction Quick Facts about Oxford Growth & Economy: The Waimakariri District extends from Urban and rural Oxford is home to about 3,860 Pegasus Bay in the east to the Puketeraki residents; population expected to grow to around Range in the west, and is bounded by the 4,220 by 2031 Waimakariri River in the south and the Currently largely utilised for day-to-day goods and Hurunui District in the north. The District services by local community has an area of 225,000 hectares and is 93 consents for new residential dwellings between home to 54,000 residents (in 2014). The 2012 and 2014 and another 10 in 2015 to March Opportunities to intensify the current business 1 vast majority of the District’s population zoned land and to establish in the 3.5ha of lives in the eastern part. undeveloped business 2 zoned land Business numbers in area increased by 16% over the Oxford town forms one of Waimakariri last decade; number of employees increased by 57% District’s urban areas; at an estimated over same period population of 2,070 in 2014 the town’s Agriculture is the largest sector and employer with population is expected to grow over the 305 business units in 2014 and taking a 28% share of all employment in the area coming years. Including the rural area Second largest employer is the health and social surrounding Oxford – the Ashley Gorge, services sector the population of the wider area stands at There has been a sharp increase in the number of approximately 3,860 (in 2014). employees working in the construction sector, with numbers more than quadrupling in recent years With historic and projected growth, a base following the effects and rebuild efforts triggered by of existing businesses, a scenic location the earthquakes relatively close to Christchurch, availability Oxford has a higher self-sufficiency ratio than the wider District with the majority of Oxford’s labour of business land and a proven visitor force working within the District, particularly in appeal, Oxford presents opportunities for Oxford town investors, developers and new businesses. This paper provides an overview of Oxford’s and the wider Waimakariri District’s economic and business environment based on available statistical and other survey information. This includes a discussion of the role of Oxford town centre, the area’s growing customer base, Oxford’s and the wider District’s economy and employment situation, perceptions of Oxford as a place to do business and the District’s resident profile as customers of Oxford. Lastly, this paper touches on opportunities for Oxford, as well as provides a list key contacts and resources available that inform business development and investment. 1 ECD-04 / 150312039775 HD Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Waimakariri District and Wards – Oxford location 1. The Role of Oxford Town Centre Oxford town centre is used as a local service centre for some day-to-day goods and services by the local community. While most residents of the Oxford Eyre Ward typically visit Rangiora town centre for goods and services, Oxford’s offerings are utilised for items and services such as groceries, chemist supplies, fuel, restaurant and café dining, medical services, vet and motor vehicle services. Oxford has also developed into a visitor destination and markets itself as the “best little town in New Zealand”. Renowned for its boutique shops, cafes, walks, gardens and friendly country atmosphere, Oxford attracts many tourists, particularly in the weekends. Currently zoned for Business 1 activity in Oxford town centre are around 4.4 hectares of land on the north and south side of Main Street which runs directly through the centre of the town. Another 11.6 hectares are zoned for Business 2 activity southeast of the town centre. The map below depicts the locations of land currently zoned for business activity in Oxford. 2 ECD-04 / 150312039775 HD Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Map of Oxford Business Land The Waimakariri District Plan explains that Business 1 Zones are intended to be the dominant location of, and to be dominated by business, administrative, and cultural activities so as to: help ensure an effective and efficient business sector by concentrating activity; maintain and enhance the centres’ roles as the dominant community focal points; retain nominated areas as more appropriate to pedestrian-related activity; and retain business activity that can support public services, facilities and amenities that will provide for the needs of workers, residents and visitors, in a quality, safe environment. Business 2 zones on the other hand typically provide for commercial and industrial activity and low density of development. 2. A Growing Oxford Customer Base The number of residents in the wider Oxford area (urban and rural) is expected to grow. Statistics New Zealand predict that the population in Oxford area will grow to approximately 4,220 by 2031, the latter being a significant 94% higher than the 2013 Census population. The following graph depicts Oxford area’s population over previous Censuses and projected population to 2031 as per Statistic New Zealand. 3 ECD-04 / 150312039775 HD Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Oxford urban & rural population 2001 - 2013 and projected population 2016 - 2031 (medium) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2006 2013 2016 2021 2026 2031 Census of Population and Dwellings to 2013 and Population Projections, Statistics New Zealand The Council’s building consent records show that between 2012 and 2014, 93 consents for new residential dwellings had been issued for Oxford town (urban) as new subdivisions are emerging. Another 10 were issued for Oxford town (urban) in 2015 to the end of March. The following graph shows the number of residential building consents issued for the District’s towns over the last 3 years. Consents for new dwellings for the Oxford rural area are partially reflected in ‘rural’ below. Waimakariri District: Consents for new dwellings and location 2011 - 2014 450 400 350 300 250 200 2012 150 2013 Dwellings Dwellings consented 100 2014 50 0 Waimakariri District Council Building Consent Records 4 ECD-04 / 150312039775 HD Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Population growth in the wider Waimakariri District will also have an impact on Oxford’s businesses and local economy. There are significant numbers of potential lots within areas already zoned for residential development across the eastern part of the Waimakariri District, which could be available for development during the next ten year period. The Land Use Recovery Plan, gazetted by the Minister for Earthquake Recovery in December 2013 and developed in partnership between strategic partners including local Councils, NZTA, CERA and others, identified priority areas for growth over the next 10 to 15 years. The following map shows the District’s current and greenfield priority residential and business development areas surrounding main towns. In addition of these are rural residential areas. Waimakariri District Greenfield Priority Areas under the LURP Land Use Recovery Plan 2013, Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority The estimated population of the District is expected to increase from 50,000 at the 2013 Census to about 76,000 people by 2031, representing a rise in population of about 52%. 5 ECD-04 / 150312039775 HD Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Waimakariri usually resident population historic (1991-2013) & projected (2016+) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 2016 2021 2026 2031 Census of Population and Dwellings and Population Projections, Statistics New Zealand This solid growth is evident in the District’s building activity, particularly post the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011. The Waimakariri District Council has processed and approved a significant number of residential building consents since 2011, topping 1,000 per annum in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Historically the Council has averaged processing 400 to 500 building consents per year. Waimakariri District: Consents for New Dwellings 1986 -2014 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Number of ConsentsNumber for Dwellings 0 1995 2006 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Waimakariri District Council Building Consent records The Waimakariri District Council had approved higher numbers of residential building consents in the 2011/12 and 2012/13 financial years than any other District Council in New Zealand. In the 2013/14 year, the Council slotted into second place after Selwyn District Council. 6 ECD-04 / 150312039775 HD Oxford and the wider Waimakariri District Economic and Business Overview 2015 Waimakariri District Council Development Activity Scorecard for 2013-14 3. Oxford’s and Waimakariri District’s Economy The number of businesses in the Oxford area has grown over the past decade – up 16% to 615 in 2014. The number of employees has grown substantially over the same period – up 57% to 960 in 2014. Oxford Business Units & Employee Count since 2005 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Numberof businesses employees / 0 2005 2008 2011 2014 Business Units 532 590 598 615 Employees 610 720 790 960 Business Frame, Statistics New Zealand Note the number of employees derived from Business Frame is based on number of people registered for PAYE; it does not include people who pay their taxation via the instalment method. It does not distinguish between people who are employed full-time and part-time nor identify multiple part time jobs.