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UMI A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor MI 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 A JOURNEY OF A THOUSAND MILES: GORBACHEV’S FIRST TENTATIVE STEPS TOWARD THE NEW WORLD ORDER DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By M ark Wayda, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 1997 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Chadwick Alger, Adviser Professor James Harf Adviser Professor Randall Schweller Department of Political Science UMI Number; 9731739 Copyright 1997 by Wayda, Mark All rights reserved. UMI Microform 9731739 Copyright 1997, by UMI Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition Is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. UMI 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, MI 48103 Copyright by M a r k W ayda 1 9 9 7 ABSTRACT International relations cannot easily explain the peaceful decline of a great power of the first order, nor the actions of a rival power to accommodate and, in fact, cushion the impact of its decline. Yet that is exactly what happened in U.S.-Soviet relations. The cold war ended peacefully, and political science began a mad scramble to attempt to understand and explain the events of 1985- 1992. Traditional international relations theory accounts for only part of the change, the decision of the Soviet Union to opt out of the superpower rivalry—the reason why the cold war ended. It cannot explain the eventual peaceful accommodation of the United States to the Soviet condition. To understand how the cold war ended requires the resurrection of an early theory of political psychology, Charles E. Osgood’s Graduation Reciprocation in Tension-Reduction (GRIT) in a multidisciplinary analysis, borrowing from political science, history, and psychology. The pre-existing enemy image of the Soviet Union held by U.S. President Ronald Reagan conditioned his thinking and information processing regarding the Soviet Union so that virtually every Soviet behavior was interpreted in a ii threatening manner, thwarting the evolution of cooperation. Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev initiated a foreign policy toward the United States consistent with Osgood’s GRIT theory. Its intent was to penetrate the cognitive barriers to cooperative relations erected by Reagan’s enemy image, and to change that very image of the Soviet Union. The results of this study suggest that a consistent application of a comprehensive GRIT strategy can, over time, redraw the cognitive map of foreign policy decision makers, impacting their policy choices. These findings offer additional insights into the study of international relations, demonstrating the role of elite beliefs in explaining change in international relations. It also supports a conclusion that the practice of foreign policy decision making would benefit from an expansion of empathy—an enhanced capacity to understand international behavior and events from the perspective of adversaries. Ill For my father, Frank Wayda, who taught me by his example how to live well, and for Joseph Kruzel, who taught me by his example how to think well. I owe them both more than I was ever able to tell them. IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I wish to thank my wife, Julie Davis. She was a great source of emotional and intellectual support throughout this project. I thank my adviser, Chad Alger, for his faith, his encouragement, his criticism, and his advice. And I owe a special thanks to Dr. Thomas Milburn; he believed in me and supported this project from its very inception. He was a great personal encouragement, a sounding board, and provided helpful commentary on numerous draft chapters. This project would not have reached completion without his help. I am grateful to those who engaged in numerous discussions that helped form and reform this work in progress, who read and critiqued drafts of the manuscript, and who encouraged and supported me, especially Aimée Ansari, Jan Bosold, Josephine Cohagen, Alden Craddock, Betty Dessants, Peter Feaver, Jim Harf, Don Lair, Shannon Peterson, Doug Plummer, Steve Rawson, Mark Richardson, Randy Schweller, Dawn Shinew, Todd VonVille, and Kathy Wallace. Finally, I also wish to thank the directors and staff of the Mershon Center at The Ohio State University. I found workspace and support, a professional identity, and comradery among you. VITA February 9, 1960 ..............................Born - Cleveland, Ohio 1985 .................................................... B.A. University of Pittsburgh 1993.................................................... M.A. Political Science, The Ohio State University 1993-present......................................Associate, M ershon Center, The Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS 1. Mark Wayda, “Comment: The DOD Annual Report to Congress, FY 1993,” in Joseph Kruzel, ed., American Defense Annual 1993 (New York: Lexington Books, 1993) 2. Mark Wayda, “Comment: The DOD Annual Report to Congress, FY 1992,” in Joseph Kruzel, ed., American Defense Annual 1991-1992 (New York: Lexington Books, 1992) FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science Specialty in International Relations VI TABLE OF CONTENTS Eage Abstract .................................................................................................................... ii Dedication............................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................ v Vita............................................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents ................................................................................................... vii List of Figures......................................................................................................... x Introduction: A Journey of a Thousand Miles ................................................. 1 Chapters: 1. Meta theory and the Evolution of Cooperation ..................................... 12 1.1 International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold W ar............................................................................ 14 1.1.1 The failure of international relations theory .............. 19 1.1.2 The intellectual limitations of traditional social scientific inquiry ................................................................. 25 1.2 Idiosyncratic Variables: Elite Beliefs and the End of the Cold W ar.......................................... 27 1.3 Cooperation as the Key Operationalization of the End of the Cold War....................................................................... 43 1.3.1 The phases of cooperation in U.S.-Soviet relations.... 48 1.3.2 Evolving reciprocal cooperation..................................... 53 1.4 Methodological Pluralism: An Explanation the Works 59 2. International Relations Theory and Approaches to Cooperation.... 75 V ll 2.1 The Existing Literature and the Understanding of Cooperation........................................................................... 77 2.1.1 Contribution of traditional game theory ........................ 78 2.1.1.1 2 player games.......................................................... 79 2.1.1.2 dichotomous choice.................................................. 82 2.1.1.3 beyond structure: conceptions of rationality 84 2.2 Adjusting game theory: evolution of an evolution ................... 89 2.2.1 introduction to the prisoner’s dilemma......................... 89 2.2.2 the relational environment ............................................... 95 2.2.3 adding complexity to game theoretical models 99 2.2.4 the contribution of pohtical psychology......................... 106 2.2.5 changing preferences: a different approach to learning......................................................... 113 2.3 Explaining the End of the Cold War.......................................... 117 2.3.1 Introduction to proto-game theory.................................. 119 2.3.2 Introduction to GRIT ........................................................