NCHRP 08-36 (140): PREDICTIONS V. REALITIES – ASSESSING ACTUAL TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS OF THE 2005 BRAC DECISIONS FINAL REPORT May 2018 The information contained in this report was prepared as part of NCHRP Project 08-36, Task 140, National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). Special Note: This report IS NOT an official publication of the NCHRP, the Transportation Research Board or the National Academies. NCHRP 08-36 (I40): Predictions V. Realities Assessing Actual Transportation Impacts of the 2005 BRAC Decisions Final Report FINAL REPORT: ASSESSING ACTUAL TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS OF THE 2005 BRAC DECISIONS Prepared For: Transportation Research Board (TRB) Prepared By: WSP USA, Inc. 1015 Half Street SE, Suite 650 Washington DC 20003 202-783-0241 May 2018 ii NCHRP 08-36 (I40): Predictions V. Realities Assessing Actual Transportation Impacts of the 2005 BRAC Decisions Final Report This work was sponsored by one or more of the following as noted: ☒American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, and was conducted in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, ☐Federal Transit Administration and was conducted in the Transit Cooperative Research Program, ☐Federal Aviation Administration and was conducted in the Airport Cooperative Research Program, ☐Research and Innovative Technology Administration and was conducted in the National Cooperative Freight Research Program, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and was conducted in the Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program, ☐Federal Railroad Administration and was conducted in the National Cooperative Rail Research Program, which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine This report is as submitted by the Contractor. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied herein are those of the Contractor. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the Academies, or the program sponsors. iii NCHRP 08-36 (I40): Predictions V. Realities Assessing Actual Transportation Impacts of the 2005 BRAC Decisions Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Report Overview.................................................................................................................. 6 1.2. Organization of Report ........................................................................................................ 6 2. Review of BRAC 2005 Transportation Issues............................................................... 7 2.1. Summary of 2005 defense base closure and realignment commission report .................... 7 2.1.A. Background.................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.B. 2005 BRAC Process ...................................................................................................... 8 2.1.C. Department of Defense Initiatives................................................................................ 9 2.1.D. Transportation Issues ................................................................................................. 10 2.2. Summary of TRB Special Report 302 ................................................................................. 10 2.2.A. Background.................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.B. SR 302 Analysis............................................................................................................ 11 2.2.C. DoD versus Civilian Transportation Investment Processes ...................................... 15 2.2.D. Funding Options.......................................................................................................... 16 2.2.E. BRAC Study Committee Findings and Recommendations ......................................... 16 2.3. Endnotes ............................................................................................................................. 21 3. Case Studies ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.1. Walter Reed National Military Medical Center ................................................................. 26 3.1.A. Case Study Update...................................................................................................... 27 3.1.B. Evaluation of Actual Versus Predicted Conditions ..................................................... 39 3.1.C. Findings........................................................................................................................ 47 3.2. Fort Belvoir/Mark Center................................................................................................... 50 3.2.A. Case Study Update...................................................................................................... 51 3.2.B. Evaluation of Actual Versus Predicted Conditions ..................................................... 68 3.2.C. Findings........................................................................................................................ 79 3.3. Fort Meade ......................................................................................................................... 82 3.3.A. Case Study Update...................................................................................................... 83 3.3.B. Evaluation of Actual Versus Predicted Conditions ..................................................... 96 3.3.C. Findings...................................................................................................................... 103 3.4. Joint Base Lewis-McChord ............................................................................................... 106 3.4.A. Case Study Update.................................................................................................... 107 3.4.B. Evaluation of Actual Versus Predicted Conditions ................................................... 117 3.4.C. Findings...................................................................................................................... 121 3.5. Eglin Air Force Base.......................................................................................................... 123 3.5.A. Case Study Update.................................................................................................... 124 3.5.B. Evaluation of Actual Versus Predicted Conditions ................................................... 135 3.5.C. Findings...................................................................................................................... 140 iv NCHRP 08-36 (I40): Predictions V. Realities Assessing Actual Transportation Impacts of the 2005 BRAC Decisions Final Report 3.6. Fort Bliss ........................................................................................................................... 143 3.6.A. Case Study Update.................................................................................................... 144 3.6.B. Evaluation of Actual Versus Predicted Conditions ................................................... 156 3.6.C. Findings...................................................................................................................... 160 Endnotes .................................................................................................................................. 163 4. Findings and Recommendations..................................................................................176 4.1. Overall Trends.................................................................................................................. 176 4.2. Overall Findings ................................................................................................................ 182 4.3. Suggestions for Future Research ...................................................................................... 185 5. References.........................................................................................................................188 5.1. Chapter 2 .......................................................................................................................... 188 5.2. Chapter 3 .......................................................................................................................... 190 Appendix A: Levels Of Service, Highway Capacity Manual 2010 ...............................198 Level of Service at Signalized Intersections............................................................................. 198 Level of Service on Freeway Facilities ..................................................................................... 199 Level of Service for Multi-lane Highways ................................................................................ 200 Level of Service for Two-lane Highways ................................................................................. 201 Appendix B: Traffic Volume and Operations Tables .....................................................202 Walter Reed National Military Medical Center .....................................................................