Transition Management New mode of governance for sustainable development Transitiemanagement Nieuwe vorm van governance voor duurzame ontwikkeling Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam op gezag van de rector magnificus Prof.dr. S.W.J. Lamberts en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op donderdag 7 juni 2007 om 16.00 uur door Derk Albert Loorbach geboren te Rotterdam transitie-promotie.indd 1 11-4-2007 0:19:51 Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr.ir. J. Rotmans Overige leden: Prof.dr.ing. G. Teisman Prof.dr. J. Grin Prof.dr. M. van Twist Copromotor: Dr. R. Kemp Financially supported by the J.E. Jurriaanse Stichting Rotterdam (c) Derk Loorbach, 2007 ISBN 978 90 5727 057 4 Graphic design and cover: Sandder Lanen Editing: Liedewij van Tuin Desk Top Publishing: Hanneke Kossen Printing: AD Druk The author can be reached at: [email protected] International Books, Grifthoek 151, 3514 JK Utrecht, the Netherlands phone +31 30 2731 840, fax +31 30 2733 614 e-mail: [email protected]; website: www.antenna.nl/i-books US-orders to: IPG books, Order Department, 814 North Franklin Street, Chicago, IL 60610, e-mail to: [email protected], or phone tollfree 800-888-4741 UK-orders to: Global Book Marketing/Central Books, 99b Wallis Road, London, E9 5LN, [email protected], or phone +44 (0)20 8533 5800 transitie-promotie.indd 2 11-4-2007 0:19:51 Preface ‘It’s the journey that counts and not the destination’, some say. Transitions to a sustainable society are like discovery journeys into the unknown; they are about exploration, learning, discovery and change. Since the destination (what is a sustainable society) is unclear and the roads towards it highly uncertain, the only way forward is to take small steps and regularly evaluate whether we are coming closer to or drifting away from our ideal destination. This metaphor of transitions as journeys can be extended: along the way we will meet chal- lenges, encounter problems, will be surprised by unforeseen changes, will meet new friends and perhaps make enemies, and finally will come up with solutions never before imagined. The journey itself is in this sense the change or discov- ery we would like to see: by embarking on new pathways to the future, we are already changing the present. However valuable such a zen-like attitude towards change and innovation, at this moment in time I am more than happy to have produced a concrete result and am able to write this preface. Although it is by no means the end of my journey and my final destination, this book sure feels like an important stop along the way and an accomplishment I have been work- ing towards for years. It marks the personal transition I went through and at the same time feels like a new start. Obviously, I have not traveled alone and have been accompanied, supported, guided and diverted by many colleagues, friends and family. In general, I have been very lucky in finding a scientific environment that was and is interdisciplinary, exciting and innovative. I started out at ICIS, Maastricht. Here, I found a perfect interdisciplinary scientific ‘niche’ to develop the first ideas on transition management, outside the scientific, political and bureaucratic mainstream. The move to Drift, Rotterdam, marked not only a personal transition but also the next phase in my research where our ideas were increasingly taken seriously while they matured and were scaled up. Besides these institutes with great colleagues, I also have the pleasure to be part of the Dutch Knowledge Net- work on System Innovations and Transitions (KSI), in which dozens of research- ers from all sorts of scientific disciplines interact, cooperate and discuss. The cooperation, debate, joint projects and joint papers that resulted from operating in such a dynamic context laid the basic foundation for my research and perhaps evenly important provided a very stimulating and inspiring environment. Although I do not want to thank all people who undoubtedly in some way or another contributed to the thoughts put on paper here, I do want to thank three people in specific. First and foremost my promoter, mentor, traveling-guide and -companion Jan Rotmans. When I myself was unsure about my future, you gave me the opportunity to develop myself as researcher (and consultant) at a unique moment in time when the ‘transition–field’ was largely uncharted. I can never be thankful enough for this opportunity and all the valuable lessons you taught me. I have appreciated greatly our co-production over the past years; much of the ideas in this book stem from our inspirational collaboration. The second person essential to my research has been René Kemp, who I want to thank es- pecially for teaching me the ins and outs of empirical research and scientific writing. Our collaboration in the waste-research project for me was an essential introduction to ‘regular’ research and an important project in the context of developing the transition management framework. I greatly benefited from your transitie-promotie.indd 3 11-4-2007 0:19:52 Transition management comments and critique during the writing, but also from your network in which you spread these papers. Third, I want to thank Martin van de Lindt, my partner in crime in the transition arena. I think I can safely say that we together have spent hundreds of hours together in the Parkstad Limburg and Flemish Building and Living transition arena’s. Your experience combined with my analytical back- ground provided the necessary mix to develop an implementation of transition management that is practical, do-able and effective. We have had the strangest, most exciting and depressing experiences along the way, and I look forward to new adventures. Finally, I want to extend my gratitude to family and friends for their support and interest, especially my wife Lidwine and son Abel who helped me to keep things in perspective. Thanks to becoming a father, I realize even more that the future of our world starts today and that we do not only need great ideas and inspiring visions, but also action that starts today. Achieving progressive action and innovation that links up to desired transitions is not only a great challenge, but also a moral obligation and ethical necessity in order to preserve and improve the living qualities we have today. My hopes are that the approach described in this thesis is recognized by scientists and practitioners operating in different fields and sectors of society and at different levels, and offers a coherent, con- structive and innovative approach to sustainable development in the broadest sense. If so, the transition management approach could contribute to a more directed and more rapid breakthrough of sustainability and sustainable initiatives emerging worldwide. Whether we want it or not, we are on a journey towards an uncertain future, which we need to turn into a common journey towards sustain- ability. But for now, I am taking a short pause to contemplate where I want to go next and enjoy the road already traveled and where it has taken me; here it is. Derk Loorbach Rotterdam, spring 2007 transitie-promotie.indd 4 11-4-2007 0:19:52 Contents 1 Introduction and research objectives 9 1.1 The need for transition management 12 1.2 Transitions and transition theory 17 The multi-phase and multi-level perspective on transitions 18 1.3 Sustainable development 23 1.4 Research objectives and thesis structure 25 2 Transition research: approach and methodology 29 2.1 Transition studies: theory development, methodology and a new paradigm 31 2.2 Integrated Assessment and transition research 34 2.3 Action Research and systemic thinking 37 2.4 Case study approach 38 2.5 Transition research approach 40 2.6 Research methodology 43 2.7 Case studies 45 2.8 Schematic overview and synthesis 48 3 Complexity, society and governance 51 3.1 Introduction 53 3.2 Complex adaptive systems 54 Co-evolution and adaptation 55 Self-organization 56 Emergence and scale 56 Transitions in complex adaptive systems 57 3.3 Relevant observations from complexity theories 59 3.4 Societal complexity and complex societal systems 60 3.5 Relevant observations from sociological theories 66 3.6 Governance complexity: From Government to Governance 66 Networks and governance 68 Agendas 69 Pluriformity 70 Learning 70 3.7 Relevant observations from governance theories 71 3.8 Synthesizing insights: governance in a complex society 71 3.9 Starting points for governance based on complexity theory 73 3.10 Conclusion 74 4 The Transition management approach 77 4.1 Introduction 79 4.2 Complexity governance for sustainable development 79 4.3 Transition management: the paradox 86 Multi-actor policy making 88 Long-term, collective goal setting and anticipation 90 Agenda-building 92 Experimenting and innovation 93 transitie-promotie.indd 5 11-4-2007 0:19:52 Evaluation, adaptation and reflexivity 95 Knowledge diffusion and learning 98 4.4 Conclusion: transition management as a third way 100 5 The cyclical, multi-level transition management framework 101 5.1 Introduction 103 5.2 Transition management: who and what is managed? 103 Strategic transition management 104 Tactical transition management 107 Operational transition management 109 The multi-level framework 111 5.3 The transition management cycle 113 Strategic: problem structuring and envisioning 116 Tactical: coalition building, developing transition agendas 119 Operational: mobilizing actors and implementing transition