The POLIMI forecasting chains for real time flood and drought predictions A. Ceppi, G. Ravazzani, C. Corbari, M. Mancini Vienna, 18 - 22 April 2016 Session NH1.6/AS1.4/HS4.9 - Coupled atmosphere-hydrological modeling for improved hydro-meteorological predictions Background & Aims of the study Over the last twenty years severe river floods and droughts have occurred in Europe, causing thousands of deaths and billion Euros in insured economic losses. Experience suggests that appropriate warnings with sufficient lead time can mitigate the consequences of heavy precipitation events and long dry periods. Therefore, meteorological forecasts coupled to hydrological models are nowadays widespread to decide on an early water- system control actions to prevent or reduce problems with floods, droughts or water quality and regulations. The two faces of the same coin Floods Droughts Areas of study: Areas of study: 1. Three catchments located northern than Milan 1. Muzza Bassa Lodigiana Consortium in the Po urban area (the Olona, Seveso and Lambro River Valley, northern Italy basins) 2. The Guzzetti agricultural company in the 2. Idro Lake between the Lombardy and Trentino Capitanata area of the Puglia region, southern Regions Italy Aim: 3. A golf course near Linate (Milan) airport 1. How early warning systems are an effective complement to structural measures for flood Aim: can we save irrigation water and use it in wiser control in Milan city? way? 2. Can we forecast the water lake level for a better management of the upstream and downstream basin? The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions 2 Meteorological models Deterministic models by ISAC-CNR GFS spatial resolution: 50 km, Δt 3h, forecast horizon +144h Bolam spatial resolution: 11 km, Δt 1h, forecast horizon +72h Moloch spatial resolution: 1.5 km, Δt 1h, forecast horizon +45h Probabilistic model by ARPA Emilia-Romagna COSMO- spatial resolution: 7 km, Δt 3h, forecast horizon +132h LEPS 16 ensemble 1. spatial resolution: 3 km, Δt 1h, forecast horizon +246h, by Terraria company WRF 2. spatial resolution: 2.5 km, Δt 1h, forecast horizon +48h, by University of Baleari Islands 3. spatial resolution: 5.5 km, Δt 1h, forecast horizon +72h, 8 ensembles, by Epson Meteo Centre The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions The POLIMI hydrological model: FEST-EWB www.fest.polimi.it Meteorological data FEST-EWB: Flash – flood Event – based Spatially – distributed rainfall – runoff Transformation – including Energy Water Balance Spatial interpolation: Thiessen, IDW • Mancini, 1990: PhD thesis Soil Parameters • Ceppi, A., et al. 2013: NHESS, 13(4), 1051- 1062. Snow Vegetation • Ravazzani, G. et al., 2014: Water Resources Dynamics Parameters Management, 28(4), 1033-1044 • Corbari, C., Mancini, M., 2014: Hydrological science journal, 59 (10), 1830-1843 LST SM DEM Energy Soil Moisture The routing component fluxes Definition of river network Percolation Surface Runoff LEGEND Input Process Subsurface groundw Surface flow Lakes and routing ater routing reservoires Output Internal variable Hydrograph at any river cross section The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Real time flood and drought forecasts: the POLIMI control dashboards Seveso-Olona-Lambro (SOL) Lake Idro, FILL Linate (PreGI) The Muzza basin, Po Valley (PREGI/SEGUICI) Borgo Incoronata, Puglia (PreGI) The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Observed weather data: official and citizen scientist stations Official ARPA Lombardy stations N W E S ARPA + Meteonetwork stations N W E S • 850 weather stations Arpa ~ Meteonetwork • real time data every 20 minutes The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions The Milan urban basins: Seveso-Olona-Lambro (SOL) The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions 7 The Milan urban basins: Seveso-Olona-Olmabro (SOL), recent floods 15/07/2009 • The Olona flood (Varese): 30 milion € 18/09/2010 • The Seveso flood (Milan): 80 milion € 08/07/2014 • The Seveso flood (Milan): 55 milion € 15/11/2014 • The Lambro flood (Monza): 6 milion € The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Real time operative non-structural measures Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro Hydro-Meteo Forecasts based by GFS + FEST Initialized on 2016-04-11 Forecast horizion: 144 hours Spatial grid: 50 km Deterministic model ISAC-CNR Discharge Cumulated Precipitation Temperature The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro Hydro-Meteo Forecasts based by BOLAM + FEST Forecast horizion Initialized on 2016-04-11 72 hours Spatial grid: 11 km Deterministic model ISAC-CNR Discharge Cumulated Precipitation Temperature The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro Hydro-Meteo Forecasts based by Moloch + FEST Forecast horizion Initialized on 2016-04-11 45 hours Spatial grid: 1.5 km Deterministic model ISAC-CNR Discharge Cumulated Precipitation Temperature The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro Hydro-Meteo Forecasts based by CLEPS + FEST Forecast horizion Initialized on 2016-04-11 132 hours Spatial grid: 7 km 16 ensembles ARPA-EM Discharge Cumulated Precipitation Temperature The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro Hydro-Meteo Forecasts based by WRF + FEST Forecast horizion 48 hours Initialized on 2016-04-11 Spatial grid: 5.5 km 8 ensembles Epson Meteo Centre Discharge Cumulated Precipitation Temperature The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard SOL: Seveso-Olona-Lambro The Multi-Model approach Ravazzani., G., Amengual, A., Ceppi, A., Romero, R., Homar, V., Mancini, M. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area. Submitted to Journal of hydrology. Special issue "Flash floods, hydro-geomorphic response and risk management" The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard FILL: Forecast of Idro Lake Level project Idro lake, the first regulated lake in Italy since 1923 for irrigation purpose Lake level control and downstream flood Tunnel (galleria degli agricoltori) attenuation Gated spillway Basin area: 1473 km2 The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard FILL: Lake COSMO-LEPS precipitation forecasts regulations Forecasts min/max lake levels [m asl] according to COSMO-LEPS & FEST-WB coupled simulations FEST-WB simulations for lake level Gate openings [m] The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Dashboard FILL: Lake COSMO-LEPS precipitation forecasts regulations Forecasts min/max lake levels [m asl] according to COSMO-LEPS & FEST-WB coupled simulations FEST-WB simulations for lake level Gate openings [m] The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions PREvision and Guide for Irrigation (PREGI): coupling metereological forecasts and hydrological model for irrigation water needs Satellite data (LST, albedo, NDVI) Soil moisture observations SM Ground data meteorological Soil moisture forecasts SM The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Crop irrigation water: synergism between soil water balance model and weather forecasts Forecasted rainfall Irrigation North Italy θ Surface irrigation days 1 30 South Italy Drip irrigation percolation The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions PREvision and Guide for Irrigation (PREGI): coupling metereological forecasts and hydrological model for irrigation water needs To follow or not to follow the forecast system The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions 21 Can we save irrigation water coupling metereological forecasts and hydrological model? Ceppi, A., Ravazzani, G., Corbari, C., Salerno, R., Meucci, S., and Mancini, M., (2014) Real time drought forecasting system for irrigation management, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3353–3366. The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions Soil Moisture [-] The SEGUICI Project Smart technologies for water resources management for civil consumption and irrigation Precipitation [mm] Secugnago Livraga San Rocco al Porto Air Temperature [°C] The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions The SEGUICI Project Forecasts based by WRF & FEST-EWB SM day +8 stress threshold precipitation day +8 0.36 0.0 0.34 5.0 10.0 ] 0.32 - 15.0 0.30 20.0 0.28 25.0 0.26 30.0 35.0 Soil Moisture [ Soil Moisture 0.24 40.0 0.22 45.0 Cumulated Precipitation [mm] Precipitation Cumulated 0.20 20/06/2015 21/06/2015 22/06/2015 23/06/2015 24/06/2015 25/06/2015 26/06/2015 27/06/2015 28/06/2015 29/06/2015 30/06/2015 01/07/2015 02/07/2015 03/07/2015 04/07/2015 05/07/2015 06/07/2015 07/07/2015 08/07/2015 09/07/2015 10/07/2015 11/07/2015 12/07/2015 13/07/2015 14/07/2015 15/07/2015 16/07/2015 17/07/2015 50.0 Days The POLIMI forecasting chain for flood and drought predictions The SEGUICI Project Forecasts based by WRF & FEST-EWB SM day +8 SM day +1 stress threshold precipitation day +8 precipitation day +1 0.36 0.0 0.34 5.0 10.0 ] 0.32 - 15.0 0.30 20.0 0.28 25.0 0.26 30.0 35.0 Soil Moisture [ Soil Moisture 0.24 40.0 0.22 45.0 Cumulated Precipitation [mm] Precipitation Cumulated 22/06/2015 26/06/2015 01/07/2015 05/07/2015 09/07/2015 13/07/2015 17/07/2015 0.20 20/06/2015 21/06/2015 23/06/2015 24/06/2015 25/06/2015